NBA odds: How Scottie Barnes Rookie of the Year odds moved this season
The first full week of the NBA playoffs are in books, and our second award has been announced! The Toronto Raptors’ Scottie Barnes was named the 2022 Rookie of the Year (ROY) in the closest vote in almost 20 years.
Barnes is the third Raptor to win the award — Damon Stoudamire in 1996 and Vince Carter in 1998 were the others — and the first to do so this century. Given this historic win, and the fact that Barnes beat out favorites like Evan Mobley, Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green, we decided to look at his victory from a gambling perspective.
At the start of the NBA season, the odds at DraftKings saw the top four favorites listed as Green (+200), Cunningham (+300), Jalen Suggs (+750) and Mobley (+1000). However, Injuries and slow starts hurt Green, Cunningham and Suggs, while Mobley and the Oklahoma City Thunder's Josh Giddey impressed out the gate winning November Rookie of the Month in the Eastern and Western conferences, respectively.
Barnes was a pleasant surprise early on as well. During the preseason, the odds at FOX Bet for the fourth pick out of Florida State University to win ROY were +1100. His professional debut saw him drop 12 points, nine rebounds and an assist. He followed that up with 25 points, 13 rebounds and two assists in his second game and from there his odds quickly shortened.
We spoke to FOX Bet trader Timme Wesselink to get his thoughts on the award's odds race.
"Barnes has been top three in the betting all season. He opened +1100 and gradually went down early in the season to +275 around Christmastime. At the start of the year, he moved out again to +800 around the All-Star break, with Mobley seemingly taking full ownership of the Rookie of the Year."
Unsurprisingly, the shift in odds largely correlated to team play. The Raptors were middling around .500 for the first three-fourths of the season while the Cleveland Cavaliers spent a large portion of that time in the top five of the Eastern Conference, due in part to the versatility and steady play of Evan Mobley.
Additionally, Cade Cunningham began to turn it on after a slow start, which crowded up the ROY race in the Eastern Conference, while Josh Giddey dominated the West winning Rookie of the Month for November, December, January and February.
However, as we always say about the NBA, lines change fast. In the final stretch of the season, Mobley missed time with an ankle injury while Giddey was shut down. Cunningham came on strong, averaging 21.2 points and 6.7 assists per game after March 1, but Barnes was steady and consistent with 15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals a game as he won Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in February and March. At the same time, the Raptors moved into the East’s fifth seed.
Normally guarding the opposing team's best perimeter scorers while providing plenty of offensive punch, Barnes helped set the tone for a team heavy on length, athleticism and hustle. Uncharacteristically poised for a rookie, he led Toronto in minutes played and finished in the top three in field goals made, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, assists and blocks.
When questioned at the beginning of March with Mobley at -769 and Barnes at +700, FOX Bet sports trader Dylan Brossman told us:
"Although Evan Mobley is the overwhelming favorite to win the award, the majority of tickets are on Scottie Barnes. He's also FOX Bet's biggest liability. In the five games post-All-Star break, Barnes has averaged 20 points, nine rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.8 steals and one block."
Down the stretch, Barnes was neck and neck with Mobley, but undoubtedly his team’s overall success — and his contribution to it — played a big factor in him bringing the ROY back to the Six.
"Cleveland’s collapse in the final month of the season and Toronto’s rise arguably flipped the outcome. Mobley’s late-season injury also did not help his case," Wesselink stated before continuing, "Barnes is a worthy winner, as he outperformed his expectations and has been very valuable to the Raptors’ surprising season."
In the closest race in 20 years, Barnes picked up 48 out of 100 first-place votes and Mobley came in second with 43 first-place votes. Cunningham came in third with nine first-place votes.
"Scottie Barnes was a surprising winner," Wesselink exclaimed. "FOX Bet saw most money come in on Mobley and Cunningham, so Barnes was a good result in the end."
However, he made sure to add, "We also operate in Canada with a sister brand, Barnes was a big losing outcome for us there."
If any of you gamblers had put $10 down on those preseason odds you would have returned a hefty $150 on Scottie winning the award! Who said all that Canada had to offer was maple syrup?
So there you have it. Your 2022 ROY Scottie Barnes is now trying to keep his season alive against the championship-contending Philadelphia 76ers. After having missed a couple of games with an ankle injury, he is back and ready to add to his historic rookie campaign.
If you like the Raptors to continue their surprising season, make sure to place your bets over at FOX Bet!
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