National Basketball Association

NBA MVP odds: Lines, best bets to win the award

Updated Mar. 15, 2023 2:17 p.m. ET

By Ric Bucher
FOX Sports NBA Writer

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Luka Dončić is the preseason favorite to win the NBA regular-season Most Valuable Player award.

For the third year in a row, the Dallas Mavericks' do-everything point forward is at the top of every oddsmaker's MVP list — including FOX Bet — and I only wish there was a side wager that for the third year in a row, he won't win the award.

Let's talk about the three players I think are worth sprinkling some money on instead.

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I don't have anything against Dončić. I get the enchantment, especially as an MVP candidate. No one in the league has the ball in his hands more — he has led in usage rate the past two seasons, and I fully expect him to do so again this season. And he's mastered every offensive skill.

The problem is that every year, the combination of that high usage rate and his physical style of play results in him wearing down and, with it, a notable slide in his efficiency.

If there were a degree-of-difficulty component to winning the award, he'd get it in a landslide because no one works harder for everything he gets. He doesn't have Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid's size or Giannis Antetokounmpo's length or athleticism. Those advantages allow them, at times, to score, rebound and dish assists without suffering the turnovers and missed shots that Dončić does.

That, I suspect, is the primary reason he has never received so much as a first-place vote for the award or finished higher than fourth in the overall balloting. In short, he's a bad bet.

So which stars are good bets?

Here are the MVP odds, my two favorites to win the award this year and a long shot.

ODDS TO WIN NBA MVP (at FOX Bet)

Joel Embiid, 76ers (+500 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $60 total)

One of the most important elements for winning the award is desire, and no one might want it more than Embiid. Antetokounmpo has flat-out stated that he doesn't care about winning it a third time, and I believe him. But Embiid has yet to put one in his trophy case and was frustrated about finishing second to Jokic last year.

I suspected the addition of James Harden last season, acquired from Brooklyn, would undermine his chances. Still, Sixers coach Doc Rivers seems determined to make Embiid the undisputed No. 1 option this season on a squad that is primed to improve on last year's 51-win total and finish with the East's best record.

Health is always a concern with Embiid, but he played 68 games last season, the most in his career. And he appears to be taking his conditioning more seriously.

With Jokic's numbers likely to slide with the return of Jamal Murray and voters potentially reluctant to put Jokic in the Bill Russell-Wilt Chamberlain-Larry Bird circle by giving him a third-consecutive MVP title, the path is there for Embiid to snare his first.

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Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (+550 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $65 total)

He may not care about winning the award. Still, he has all the earmarks that today's voters seem to give considerable weight when filling out their ballot — specifically, Player Efficiency Rating and Win Share percentage. Antetokounmpo was second in both last season to Jokic.

Former Wizards point guard Gilbert Arenas recently bagged on Antetokounmpo's understanding of the game; in a way, he was right. Giannis is still figuring out exactly how to apply his prodigious talent in the most effective way, making him gobsmacking amazing.

He has grown in that department every year, and I expect this season to be no different. In a recent survey of general managers, coaches and scouts I did for Fox Sports, I asked who was the best all-around player in the league. Most popular answer: Giannis. Do not be surprised if most MVP voters agree at the season's end.

Kevin Durant, Nets (+1000 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $110 total)

All the offseason drama has overshadowed the fact that Durant is playing as well as he ever has — a career-high in assists last season (7.4) and his third-highest scoring average (29.9).

The Nets are going to play an up-tempo style that should boost those numbers even higher, and Ben Simmons should lighten Durant's defensive responsibilities, leaving him more energy to light up the scoreboard.

The Nets were the top boom-or-bust choice in the aforementioned survey. If they boom, Durant is sure to be the catalyst.

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds." He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.

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