Dec 22, 2016; New York, NY, USA; Orlando Magic head coach Frank Vogel coaches against the New York Knicks during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
The Orlando Magic are still building their chemistry and identity as the midway point of the season nears. We open the mailbag to dive into development.
The Orlando Magic’s season has not gone as planned for sure. There have been bumps and bruises on the road as the team tries to learn how to play together and come together.
That chemistry building is still an ongoing process. The Magic’s 14-18 record is a reflection of all the inconsistency they have played with this season. The team fell behind early and has tread water since then. Everyone is waiting either for the team to fall apart or to make their push.
The trade deadline is creeping ever closer.
The Magic, though, are focused on themselves and developing their identity. Frank Vogel still has an unwavering belief in his team and what they can accomplish this season. And there are at least some signs the team can reach that level if they could only put things together.
That part seems still somewhat far of this Christmas. The Magic are still struggling to put all their pieces together and come together more consistently. Orlando is still a work in progress seeking direction.
A few days off this Christmas can get the team a bit of a reset. Especially coming off the team’s best all-around performance in several weeks. The Magic have some hope growing.
Orlando is still developing itself, though. The team is still figuring things out. Perhaps a bit too slowly. There is progress — if just incremental.
There is a bit of angst among the Magic — the rhombus of desperation as Zach Lowe of ESPN described a few teams desperate to make the Playoffs on a recent Lowe Post Podcast. The Magic are actively trying to improve their team.
But they also seem patient. There is still time to fix things — both on the court and through trades.
Until then, we have our questions to answer. After getting a deluge of questions after our last mailbag, I saved some questions to answer this Christmas.
Oct 12, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Mario Hezonja (8) against the San Antonio Spurs during the first quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
@lockedonmagic is the concern for Mario legitimate? The kid is so young.
— Kent (@kcross1317) December 4, 2016
This is a big question. Even the OMD staff is sharply divided on Mario Hezonja and what to do with him. Do you play him through his mistakes? Or do you make him work through practice to get back on the court?
The Magic’s goal is to win now. So that makes it tough to play a player who has struggled a lot this year.
Mario Hezonja’s numbers, in his limited minutes, are not good. He is averaging 3.3 points per game and shooting 32.9 percent from the floor and 19.4 percent from beyond the arc. Shooting was supposed to be his NBA-ready skill. It just has not come around.
The plain truth of the matter is, as I wrote earlier this week, Hezonja is just in a very bad situation for him.
The Magic knew he would be a project to begin with. So his slow development is not a complete surprise. They thought he would be a better shooter and contribute there. But that has not come out.
What happened last year was Scott Skiles did not allow him to make mistakes. The Magic’s win-now focus last year hurt him. And it has hurt him even more now.
I do not think the concern for Hezonja is completely legitimate. He can still be a very good player. Hezonja does a lot of good things, particularly in the open court with the ball in his hands. He needs opportunity. And that does not appear to be something the Magic can give at the moment.
Hezonja should continue to work to get his opportunity. Every moment he is on the floor at practice and even in garbage time at games is an opportunity to get better and prove he deserves a chance.
I do not know what Hezonja will do when he gets that chance again. The Magic played him against the Denver Nuggets a few weeks ago, and Hezonja struggled immensely, particularly on defense.
The reality is Hezonja may need to go somewhere he can make mistakes without the pressure of winning to succeed.
May 23, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic general manager Rob Hennigan talks with media as Frank Vogel is introduced as the new head coach during a press conference at Amway Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
@OMagicDaily how much cap room are we maximum projected to have this summer if we include TE cap hold for ibaka and the rookie options
— Bismax Biyomgod (@U100Blank) December 5, 2016
This answer is a bit more straightforward.
Let’s start with Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders who does a lot of these calculations. According to Pincus, assuming a salary cap of $103 million, the Magic can get a maximum of $30.1 million in cap space. That is if they renounce all their free agents.
As you note, there are still cap holds, no trades, etc.
Serge Ibaka‘s cap hold is $18.4 million and Jodie Meeks‘ cap hold is $12.4 million. For this exercise, I think we can assume the Magic would not re-sign Jeff Green, C.J. Wilcox or C.J. Watson. You can see how quickly the Magic’s cap room runs out.
That gives them almost literally no cap room to spend on new players. They could use their nontaxpayer mid-level exception to boost the roster this summer. But their first priority will be to re-sign Serge Ibaka (assumedly).
This also probably suggests what the Magic could be looking to do this season at the trade deadline. They may look to cash in on Jeff Green’s expiring deal to get some quality players to boost the roster. Nikola Vucevic‘s team-friendly deal also becomes valuable.
Orlando still has some flexibility. But the Magic have to take care of their own guys. That is why they need this to work this year and prove they can take some step forward with this team. Because a lot of their improvement will have to come internally or via trade.
Sep 26, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic head coach Frank Vogel, center Bismack Biyombo (11), center Nikola Vucevic (9) and forward Serge Ibaka (7) pose for a photo during media day at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
@OMagicDaily Q for next pod #LockedOnMagic .. how are Biyombo/Ibaka being used defensively together? Ibaka at rim, w/ Biyombo pestering
— Josh (@StopBuntingPlz) December 6, 2016
Before Friday night’s game against the Los Angeles Lakers, I would have said it is not going very well — and the stats back that up. But after that game, there is at least a clue to how this works.
I think generally, the Magic do not want to do too much different with whatever center combination is on the floor. Bismack Biyombo and Serge Ibaka probably get a bit more freedom to roam and go for blocks. But that is also part of the problem.
Generally, the Magic’s defensive strategy is to corral and direct guards toward the corner or baseline. Nikola Vucevic has proven the most adept at this. When players go for blocks though, there is a tendency to overplay and leave the weak side open. The Magic have done a poor job of late having a guard pinch down to cover the weak side big.
So while Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo would seemingly be a great combination for protecting the rim. The truth is that duo has struggled.
Orlando has a 107.5 defensive rating with Ibaka and Biyombo on the floor together. Teams average 13.4 points in the paint per game against this duo too.
Things are not all bad. The duo may be performing poorly together, but both Ibaka and Biyombo have rounded into form defensively.
Biyombo is giving up 48.6 percent field goal percentage at the rim and Ibaka is giving up 49.3 percent at the rim. So both players are starting to do a lot better defensively. For whatever reason, they have not worked well together.
Friday’s win over the Los Angeles Lakers proved exactly how devastating they can be together. What I think is important for them is to avoid overhelping and chasing blocks. Both are more than capable of defending their own man and challenging shots without getting out of rebounding position.
Nov 23, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Evan Fournier (10) shoots the ball past Phoenix Suns center Alex Len (21) during the second quarter of an NBA basketball game at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
@OMagicDaily improvement of ball movement gaining trust, lineups or both? Biggest difference in your opinion?
— Sports Stuff (@MostlyHoops) December 8, 2016
The Orlando Magic’s offense was expected to be pretty poor — if the setup for this question was not entirely clear. And for the first half of this season, it absolutely was terrible.
The Magic still have these moments where their offense gets stuck and their lack of a true go-to, one-on-one player is evident. The Magic are the kind of team that has to share the ball, get multiple scorers and rack up a lot of assists to win. There is no bailout guy.
It took some time to get there. And the Magic are still trying to get there.
But the offense has suddenly come alive.
The team is still 28th in the league in offensive rating overall. So the overall outlooks is not fantastic. But since Dec. 6, the Magic have the 16th best offense in the league. So they are clearly doing something better. Although they are hardly perfect.
A lot of it has to do with a better understanding passing the ball. Frank Vogel’s favorite “coachism” is for the team to “trust the pass.” It is a pretty clear indicator of how the Magic are doing when they are able to move the ball and pick up assists fairly quickly.
The Magic have picked up their ball movement pretty significantly. Evan Fournier has specifically started exploring his ball movement and playmaking skills, with a few hiccups.
More than any of that, the coaching staff has adjusted some of their sets to make the most of their players. At the beginning of the season, the Magic experimented a lot more with Aaron Gordon in pick and rolls and Serge Ibaka in post ups. Both of those have decreased pretty significantly.
Also of note, Elfrid Payton seems to be a lot more comfortable running the offense and picking his spots to attack and try to score. He stands and dribbles a lot less than he did early in the season thinking of what to do. His play looks much more instinctual.
Take all these together, and there is a lot more comfort playing together and with the coaches and how they should use their players. This should continue to improve.
The Magic may never have a stellar offense, but they are creeping toward a long period of at least respectability. And with how their defense can perform, that should be enough.
Dec 22, 2016; New York, NY, USA; Orlando Magic point guard Elfrid Payton (4) controls the ball against New York Knicks point guard Brandon Jennings (3) during the second quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
From Javier Gandia, via e-mail
Hey Philip keep up the good work with lockedon. Might as well be called hooked on!
You have said How important Peyton is to the Magic. Eye wise its common knowledge but stat wise whats the Magics record when peyton scores 15+pts with 5+ast?
Fun stat for the haters! Considering that the magic have had a losing record in the past 4 years!
Elfrid Payton is already a pretty hot topic among Orlando Magic fans — and now apparently management themselves. His future is seemingly as uncertain as ever.
All through this, though, Payton is starting to play some stellar basketball. It may not be consistent as everyone wants — and, true, he is doing it largely in a reserve role — but Payton is starting to hit a stride for the Magic.
Before I answer the specific question, a brief review of his current numbers.
Payton is averaging 11.7 points and 5.7 assists per game. He is shooting a career-best 46.3 percent from the floor on a career-high 10.5 field goal attempts per game. But he is making just 25.7 percent of his 3-pointers.
Yet, since he started coming off the bench, Payton is averaging 12.8 points and 5.8 assists per game while shooting 50.9 percent from the floor and 33.3 percent from beyond the arc.
If the lineup change was made to balance things out more, Payton has been its biggest beneficiary.
It is quite fair to say the Magic go as Elfrid Payton goes. For exactly those reasons you state.
The Magic are 6-1 when Payton scores 18 points or more and 6-5 when he scores 15 or more points. When Payton record 15 points and five assists, the Magic are 6-4.
The Magic are clearly pretty good when Payton is both able to find others — which he is good at anyway — and scoring for himself. Obviously, you can count that this has happened only 11 or so times. The Magic have played 32 games this season. He just does not do it often.
So with Payton, his potential is still immense. His jump shooting has gotten a lot better and he has played some big games for the Magic this year.
The mailbag is always open even between mailbag posts! Always feel free to drop a question on our twitter @omagicdaily or e-mail us questions for the mailbag at omagicdaily@gmail.com. Until next time . . . Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from Orlando Magic Daily!
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