National Basketball Association

Phoenix Suns or Golden State Warriors: Which team will be primed for the postseason?

Updated Dec. 1, 2021 1:52 p.m. ET

By Ric Bucher
FOX Sports NBA Analyst

Consider the two games this week between the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors the first probing jabs of what is expected to be, based on what we’ve seen so far, a toe-to-toe heavyweight bout for the Western Conference belt.

The Suns drew first blood with a 104-96 win on their home floor Tuesday, with a do-over set for Friday in the Bay Area. No matter what happens this week, what I wanted to know from a half-dozen league executives, scouts and coaches is whom they view as the team better built to be standing when the bell rings for the start of the NBA Finals.

The primary reason for choosing the team they did varied, but the experts were nearly unanimous in their choice: the Warriors.

A Western Conference executive started a long list of reasons with the team-with-the-best-player rationale. "I’m going with Golden State because Steph’s the best player in the world right now," he said. "As good as [Devin] Booker and Chris [Paul] are, they’re not on his level."

An Eastern Conference assistant coach pointed to the motivation factor. "Both are legit, but I’d have to go with the Warriors," he said. "They seem incredibly motivated — by people forgetting about them and even bad-mouthing them at times. The Suns got a taste [of success], so they just have the motivation of getting close [and falling short]. The Warriors seem to be hungry, angry and driven — almost as if something was taken from them that rightfully belongs to them. The Suns may not have that same motivation."

The Suns’ superior depth and collective experience played key roles in their win Tuesday. Phoenix’s bench outscored the Warriors' 45-33, and the visitors committed 22 turnovers, many of them errant passes due to miscommunication between passer and recipient, to the Suns’ dozen.

Phoenix has returned 10 players from the squad that reached the NBA Finals last year, losing to the Milwaukee Bucks in six games. The Warriors returned eight players from last season, but five of them — Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Juan Toscano Anderson, Gary Payton II and Damion Lee — have little or no playoff experience. Tuesday's matchup might have been the biggest game they’ve participated in (except for Lee, who was not with the team) outside of last year’s play-in losses to the Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies.

Chris Paul and the Suns took Round 1 of the heavyweight matchup with the Warriors on Tuesday. Paul had 15 points, 11 assists and a +21 plus-minus. (Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images)

Despite the Suns’ advantage in collective experience, some of the insiders I talked to give the postseason edge to Golden State because of what they see as superior talent — and experience — at the top of the Warriors’ rotation.

"Playoffs are just different than the regular season," the Eastern Conference executive said. "You play your best players more minutes. You don’t go as deep into your bench. So depth doesn’t matter as much as the quality at the top of your rotation."

In his estimation, the Warriors aren’t going to ask much or anything of Anderson or Payton or Lee in the playoffs. They’ll lean on Curry, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Andre Iguodala and, ideally, Klay Thompson, who has missed the past two years with ACL and Achilles tendon injuries but is expected to return sometime in the next month. That quintet has won one championship together, and the quartet (minus Looney) has won three. That trumps anything the Suns experienced or accomplished last season, the Eastern Conference assistant coach said.

"I’d rather have five cold-blooded outfits than a closet full of some really nice button-downs and Dockers," he said.

That said, all the observers I contacted are cautious about what to expect from Thompson when he returns. The more optimistic believe he can be 80 percent of what he was, and that would be enough to put the Warriors over the top.

"Imagine if the Warriors, as good as they are, traded for an All-Star shooting guard at the deadline," the Western Conference executive said. "That’s what getting Klay back is going to be like. There isn’t going to be a trade that goes down that is bigger than that.

"And they don’t need 38 minutes per game. Klay for 26 minutes and an engaged and active Jordan Poole will get the job done."

Poole, a second-year shooting guard, has been starting in place of Thompson and making the most of the opportunity, averaging 18 points. He had 28 against the Suns, taking up the slack for Curry, who was a highly uncharacteristic 4-for-21 from the floor for a meager 12 points.

If the circle I contacted are cautious about how much Thompson can contribute, they are downright skeptical that 36-year-old point guard Chris Paul can stay healthy for the entire season.

"I keep waiting for Paul to go down at the end of every season, and he is vital," a Western Conference scout said.

The others agree: a completely healthy Thompson might be a luxury for the Warriors, but a completely healthy Paul is a necessity for the Suns. His age and extensive history of injuries, particularly late in the season and in the playoffs, make a full 82-game season — last year’s was shrunk to 72 because of the pandemic — and a deep playoff run a daunting task.

"Which would you rather bet on: that Klay can come back and be somewhere around 80 percent or that Chris can stay close to 100 for the entire year?" the Western Conference executive asked. "And there’s only one Chris. He’s a surgeon out there for them. They don’t have anyone else who can do what he does."

Granted, the margin between the two teams is not considered insurmountable for the Suns. As certain as the circle of execs and coaches are that the Warriors have the better chance of winning the West, they are equally in agreement that, as of right now, the Suns are the only team that can stop Golden State.

"Both are well coached," the Eastern Conference GM said. "Both have elite point-guard play. Both have a solid combination of vets and youth. It’s a toss-up for me."

The difference, as the others see it, is essentially that the Suns are pretty close to a finished product. They put away the Warriors on Tuesday despite not having Booker in the second half because of a hamstring injury, but they weren’t missing any other notable contributors.

The Warriors, on the other hand, are not only waiting for the return of Thompson, but also James Wiseman, who is expected back soon from a torn meniscus. The second-year center might have helped slow down Suns center Deandre Ayton, who used his soft touch and long reach to collect a team-leading 24 points and 11 rebounds. Iguodala was also on the bench in street clothes because of a knee issue.

Chris Broussard: Suns looked dominant against a 'small' Warriors team I FIRST THINGS FIRST

Chris Broussard shares his biggest takeaway from the Warriors' 104-96 loss to the Suns. He says a lack of size is Golden State's problem and that this win was a challenge to sidelined Warriors center James Wiseman.

"The math is simple," the Western Conference executive said. "Golden State has been the best team in the league and has at least one or two guys they’re going to add that will make them even better. Phoenix doesn’t have any of that. The Suns are who they are."

Which, at least for one night, was the better team. They assuredly are looking for a whole lot more than that, though, just as the Warriors are assuredly looking for a whole lot more than revenge on Friday.

The challenge for both is that they have a long way to go before either team can get anything more — and what happens between now and then could decide which team does.

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," the story of NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds," the story of NBA center Yao Ming. He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.