National Basketball Association

Players to keep an eye on in this week's NBA Draft

Published Jun. 23, 2015 1:26 p.m. ET

Reid Forgrave

When you're looking at undervalued assets heading into Thursday's NBA Draft, you look for a few intangibles: A player whose college situation may not have maximized his abilities. A superior athlete with a high ceiling. A player who performs one valuable NBA skill at a reliably elite level — say, defending the wing position — who also has a glaring but correctable deficiency, like a questionable jump shot.

Basically, if you're looking for an undervalued asset coming out of college, you're looking for North Carolina junior wing J.P. Tokoto.

On a recent afternoon, Tokoto, who surprised many when he declared for the draft despite the Tar Heels' national title hopes heading into next season, was walking around the streets of Boston.

He had a workout with the Celtics the next day — one of about a dozen teams he's worked out for so far. And something he loves to do on these workouts is go explore a city on his own. He's gawked at the money shops of Beverly Hills, walked the streets of downtown Indianapolis.

"I grew up an only child," Tokoto told me, "so I can entertain myself." The plan later that day was to visit a few sites, then see "Jurassic World."

Tokoto might be one of the most intriguing sleeper candidates in this draft. No one has doubted his athletic gifts. The first time he dunked was in sixth grade. He was a sought-after recruit in high school, and he's one of the most explosive jumpers and most exciting dunkers in this draft. Yet his offensive production at UNC never reached its potential. He only averaged 8.3 points per game his junior year, and his 61 percent shooting from the free-throw line — though vastly improved from the year before — revealed his greatest weakness.

So when Tokoto told head coach Roy Williams of his decision to forgo his senior season, he knew it came with a risk. And yet he also knew the perceived upside for an NBA prospect declines every year he stays in college.

He told Williams, boarded a plane for Florida, went to IMG Academy with the sole goal of addressing his weaknesses head-on before the NBA draft combine in May. And he promised himself he'd work harder than he ever had.

"I was always a guy who would attack the rim, create for other guys, get after it defensively, get steals in passing lanes and defend on the ball, but the big question was, 'Can he hit the jump shot?'" Tokoto told me. "A lot of it was just repetition. Spot shooting off the dribble. Focusing not on making the shot but more on keeping the elbow tight. Following through towards the rim and not away from it. A major part of it was my footwork: one, two, stepping into the shot. It's very little things when you hear it, but if I'm not doing all those things, the jump shot is not looking as fluid as it should."

There was no shortage of pundits who assumed Tokoto made a mistake in opting for the NBA and would go undrafted. Then came the combine, and no player shined brighter. Not surprisingly, his measurements were through the roof. At five-on-five scrimmages, Tokoto raised the most eyebrows. In the two scrimmages, Tokoto took 12 shots and only missed one. He made a 3-pointer and all his free throws. His jumper looked more fluid.

He did all the other things that were his Carolina calling card: jumping passing lanes, skying for rebounds, dropping dimes, making his teammates better. It was a small sample size, but it was what began the buzz around Tokoto that has him as an undervalued asset who might sneak into the first round on Thursday.

As Tokoto has risen up draft boards, he's also gotten to see the fruits of a similar player's labors pay off on the biggest of stages. Andre Iguodala has always been one of Tokoto's favorite players. Tokoto sees a lot of himself in Iggy: A guy who was always defense-first, a guy who could get to the rim, but who coming into the league was a subpar shooter. Tokoto saw Iggy's ascension to NBA Finals MVP as a validation of his own decision to go for it this year: An energy guy who came off the bench all season until it was his time to shine. Tokoto sees himself fitting on a team with a Golden State Warriors-type mindset: Guys who don't necessarily fit a mold, but who know their roles and who play those roles extremely well.

"There's more confidence now," Tokoto said of his shooting. "That was a major part of my shooting stats at Carolina. I didn't feel like I could make a shot. Or I didn't feel I had the confidence from anybody else that shot would go in if I took it. A lot of it was just having confidence in myself when I took a shot, and then if it doesn't go in, move onto the next play.

"I just felt like there was so much more to my game that I haven't been able to show."

Those are the words of a man who knows his value in the NBA will be greater than what people have been giving him credit for.

Robert Upshaw is talented but brings baggage.

Here are nine more undervalued assets heading into the NBA Draft:

*Robert Upshaw, C, Washington: I wrote extensively last week on Upshaw's struggles to overcome drug addiction in college. He was kicked out of two schools. Any team taking him knows they're taking a risk on someone who swears he's on the path to recovery but who has a track record of messing up. Enormous value can be found here for a team willing to take that risk. Upshaw is a top-10 talent that some scouts have called "undraftable."

His college coach, Lorenzo Romar, told me he's the type of player who could lead the NBA in blocked shots if he keeps his head on straight. Interestingly, Romar — who kicked Upshaw off his team — told me he still roots for him 100 percent, and despite those enormous struggles that Upshaw's a really good kid at heart. There's no bigger boom-bust prospect in this entire draft. If you're a team that can afford that risk, it's one worth taking.

*Tyler Harvey, SG, Eastern Washington: The only reason Harvey played Division I basketball was because his father, a college basketball referee, happened to sit next to Jim Hayford on a plane flight. Hayford was coaching Division III Whitford at the time, and offered the unrecruited, underdeveloped Harvey a spot on his team. Then Hayford got the job at Eastern Washington, and he told Harvey he could come along, and the once-tiny Harvey's body blossomed to 6-foot-4 and filled out during his redshirt year. It paid off. This season, Harvey led all of college basketball in scoring. True, he was playing against Big Sky competition, but scouts see a little bit of Steph Curry in Harvey: A late-blooming, mid-major diamond in the rough who can flat-out shoot the ball from anywhere on the court.

*T.J. McConnell, PG, Arizona: McConnell doesn't have the look of an NBA player, but neither did Matthew Dellavedova. McConnell could become a great backup NBA point guard, and I'd be surprised if he isn't still available for a team to pick up as an undrafted free agent. McConnell was the engine powering an Arizona team that was on the cusp of making a Final Four two years in a row. You don't get flash, but you do get toughness — and an unselfish, pass-first quarterback to lead your team.

*Frank Kaminsky, PF/C, Wisconsin: What more does Kaminsky have to prove? He was the consensus National Player of the Year who led Wisconsin to consecutive Final Fours. Here are the hang-ups people have on Kaminsky at the next level: 1. Defense. 2. Age. My rebuttals: 1. In his final two college games, Kaminsky went up against the presumptive first two picks in this draft, Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns and Duke's Jahlil Okafor. He outscored both. He outscored and outplayed Towns in Wisconsin's stunning upset, and he held Okafor to 10 points and three rebounds, getting him in early foul trouble that limited Duke's centerpiece to 22 minutes. What more do you need? 2. Sure, he's 22, which is ancient for a guy that I believe ought to be taken in the mid-lottery (but who some mock drafts have going in the late teens). Just remember that Kaminsky only played two full college seasons. And also remember something Kaminsky's AAU coach told me: "Frank had an adapt-and-adjust period from every level. He's not a kid who came in and hit the ground running, not ever the top recruit or the kid you built a program around. But at the end of all those levels, Frank always had a lot of success." That's what I expect at the NBA level, too. Kaminsky will take some time to adjust to the speed and physicality of the NBA game, but he'll turn into a long-term NBA starter. Really, now: In today's NBA game, doesn't a seven-footer who shot nearly 42 percent from three and who can score creatively all over the floor sound like a sure thing?

T.J. McConnell has been stellar for Arizona.

*Pat Connaughton, SG, Notre Dame: Going into the combine, people liked to call Connaughton "deceptively athletic." It wasn't so deceptive after he absolutely tore up the combine with a max vertical jump of 44 inches, the second-highest leap recorded. Connaughton accepted his role on an exciting Notre Dame team that made the Elite Eight, but he was never The Guy. That both hurt his stats and should help in the eyes of NBA execs who love a guy who plays ego-less basketball. The biggest perceived risk with Connaughton is that he might choose a different sport — the Baltimore Orioles selected Connaughton in the fourth round of the 2014 MLB Draft as a pitcher — but he has spent the past couple months assuring people that his dream is to play in the NBA. He's a guard who can shoot (42 percent from behind the arc) and rebound (he had a team-high 7.3 rebounds) and who is always the first guy to hit the floor for a loose ball. You could find serious value in Connaughton in the second round.

*Myles Turner, C, Texas: Going into the season, Turner was considered one of the top recruits in the country. Yet he never seemed to fit in at Texas as the Longhorns had the most disappointing season in all of college basketball last season. Still, Turner was one of the best shot-blockers in college basketball last season. He rebounds well. He can pass. He has a beautiful touch and a nice jump hook. He shoots the ball from outside. And he shot 84 percent from the free-throw line last year ... astounding for a big man. Add this all up and you might have a Chris Bosh — albeit a Chris Bosh who may still be available late in the lottery. A college coach who recruited Turner told me this: "Somebody's going to get a steal."

*Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona: There's one enormous hole in Hollis-Jefferson's game, and that's an unreliable jump shot. But couldn't you have said the same about Kawhi Leonard coming out of college? Who also happens to be the player Hollis-Jefferson most likes to compare himself to. Hollis-Jefferson sees himself as a defensive stopper who can lock down people at multiple positions. In the right situation — say, a team that develops players like the Spurs — he could be a steal, especially if he's in a place where he doesn't have a load on his shoulders right away. Best-case scenario is a team gets a Kawhi Leonard-type player in the 20s. Worst case? You get a great defensive player who is an energy guy on offense. Add a jump shot to his game and Hollis-Jefferson is a top-10 pick.

*Delon Wright, PG, Utah: Conventional wisdom has Wright going late in the first round. A statistical web site I often rely on — ValueAddBasketball.com, which looks at the totality of a player's game and puts a value on what that single player means to his team (similar to baseball's Wins Above Replacement) — had Wright as the single most valuable player in college basketball last year. That's because it combined his lockdown defense with his ability to control his team from the point guard position. The knock on Wright, other than his advanced age, is that he isn't a great 3-point shooter — but he shot a decent 36 percent from "3" last season, and his 84 percent free-throw shooting rate shows he may continue to improve from three. Getting this whole package late in the first round could end up as one of the biggest value picks in the draft.

*Richaun Holmes, PF, Bowling Green: Holmes played under the radar at mid-major Bowling Green, but he jumped to the forefront of NBA team's radar screens during the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament for college seniors and again at the NBA combine. Holmes is a great athlete who can rebound and block shots, and his offensive game steadily improved during his time at Bowling Green. I don't think he'll end up as a Draymond Green-type second-round steal, but he could be one tier below that: A second-rounder who finds himself a long career as a role player in the NBA.

Email Reid Forgrave at reidforgrave@gmail.com, or follow him on Twitter @reidforgrave.