Portland Trail Blazers: Who Can Catch Them In The West?
Dec 15, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Gary Harris (14) drives to the basket past Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) during the first half at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
The Portland Trail Blazers are struggling this season and that has left them vulnerable to losing their playoff berth. Which of the Western Conference lottery teams can catch Portland and make the playoffs?
The Portland Trail Blazers entered the season as a surefire playoff team. After reaching the second round of the playoffs last season, Portland retained nearly every player on its roster while adding big-money free agent Evan Turner and rim-protecting Festus Ezeli.
If anything, their young core was going to trend upward as players such as Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Allen Crabbe continued to improve. Instead Portland is 13-16, eighth in the Western Conference, losers of 12 of their last 18 games.
A 7-4 start has dissolved under the weight of injuries and nonexistent defense.
Early-season wins against Utah and Memphis have been eclipsed by losses to non-contenders (Phoenix, New Orleans) and blowouts against the league’s elite. Their 45-point loss to Golden State Saturday night was the cherry on a bitter sundae.
The biggest issue is that Portland has fielded a bull-fighting style of defense, where defenders willingly step out of the way for opposing players. Only the Brooklyn Nets allow more points per game than the Trail Blazers’ 113, and Portland is dead last in defensive efficiency.
Damian Lillard ranks 76th among point guards in the league in ESPN’s defensive real plus-minus, and C.J. McCollum is 87th out of 96 shooting guards. The remainder of Portland’s backcourt — Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner — join McCollum in the bottom 12 at their position.
It isn’t simply their backcourt opening up holes, however. Only three players on the entire roster are posting a positive defensive plus-minus: Mason Plumlee, Ed Davis and Al-Farouq Aminu. The return of Aminu from injury should help, but he couldn’t stem the tide
Although Portland is still clinging to the eighth and final playoff spot in the West, their hold is tenuous at best. If things don’t improve on the court in the Pacific Northwest, they could see a challenger from below overtake them.
With a minus-3.5 net rating, the Trail Blazers are behind seven teams currently in the lottery, including the two teams — Denver and Sacramento — directly behind them in the standings.
Will one of those teams currently outside the playoffs overtake Portland? If so, which team has the best chance of not only passing the struggling Blazers, but hanging on to their spot through the end of the year?
Nov 13, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Andrew Wiggins (22) dribbles in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson (6) at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Los Angeles Lakers 125-99. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Not Enough To Get There
While the bottom of the Western Conference is tightly packed — every team from eighth to 15th has between 16 and 20 losses — not every team has the firepower to fight into the playoff race.
The Dallas Mavericks were in the conversation for the playoffs before the season, but have been doomed by injuries.
Even if Dirk Nowitzki can get healthy, their lack of shot creation and complete lack of wins thus far (merely seven, tied for last in the league with the 76ers and Nets) has them in too deep a hole.
The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers fall into a different category, with rosters too young to make a splash this season. The Lakers started out well, and have more talent than a number of teams around them in the standings, but their players need more time to develop.
The Phoenix Suns have lit up some teams to pull upsets out of a hat, but lack the defense and continuity to stick around in the West.
Finally, the Minnesota Timberwolves were a popular preseason choice to make the playoffs on the back of an incredibly talented core.
They may still have the potential to do so, with a top-10 offense and a defense that could improve under head coach Tom Thibodeau as the season progresses. Despite an 8-19 record, the Timberwolves boast a better point differential than the Trail Blazers.
Even so, they have already racked up 19 losses in just 27 games, putting them on pace for just 24 wins. The turnaround required for the young Wolves to make it to the playoffs this year seems unlikely if not impossible.
The Timberwolves will be fun to watch as the season progresses, but Portland fans shouldn’t draw their anxiety from Minnesota.
Dec 18, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Sacramento Kings forward DeMarcus Cousins (15) exchanges words with Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban (not pictured) during the second half at the American Airlines Center. The Mavericks defeat the Kings 99-79. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Sacramento Kings
Without looking at the numbers, it would seem like the Kings shouldn’t be on this list. They have been the center of negative attention, from allegations of assault to DeMarcus Cousins screaming at a reporter.
But then a look at the standings show the Sacramento Kings just one back in the loss column with the Portland Trail Blazers. The Kings have wins over the Thunder, Grizzlies and a sweep against the Raptors thus far this season.
They have hung with the Western Elite thus far — three losses against the Spurs and Clippers have come by an average of six points.
Their success has been fueled by Boogie Cousins, who is a commanding force on the court and having perhaps his best season thus far. He is averaging 28.1 points per game, good for fourth in the league, with a versatile scoring portfolio.
He is hitting 36 percent of his three-pointers, making 1.6 a game, and pouring in another 7.2 free throws per game on 76 percent shooting.
His impact isn’t just as a scorer, either. Cousins ranks in the top ten in the league for rebounds and double doubles, and is swatting away 1.4 blocks.
Real plus-minus has Cousins ranked 10th in the league, a reflection not only of his dominant offensive impact but his underappreciated defense as well.
The problem for Sacramento is that they have little else in the way of consistency outside of their All-NBA center.
Rudy Gay is scoring, but has been a sieve on defense and battled inefficiency and injuries. Their guard rotation has clawed its way up from the bottom since Darren Collison’s return from suspension, but does not have a current or future star in the mix.
New head coach Dave Joerger has done well on the court, but his inability to find a dynamic lineup is keeping this team from taking the next step forward. Two-center lineups with Kosta Koufos and Cousins have treaded water, but they aren’t the answer for making the playoffs in the West.
Sacramento may make a move this season if they continue to hang around the playoffs, and that uncertainty could give the team a boost to catch Portland.
The other end of the seesaw is the gaping maw of downside that occurs if Cousins’ off-court behavior continues to degrade and he is suspended or arrested, neither of which are unrealistic at this point.
If things come together, Sacramento has a top-12 player and a competent coach that can push into the eighth seed. If things fall apart, this team yet again will spend the Spring trying to get fans care about a team not going anywhere.
Dec 11, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) stands on the court in the game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The New Orleans Pelicans won 120 – 119 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
New Orleans Pelicans
If the best players in the NBA made the playoffs, then the Pelicans would be a surefire participant. Anthony Davis has been playing out of his mind this season, dropping 29.6 points and 10.9 rebounds per game.
His 2.78 blocks per game lead the league and his 1.48 steals per game ranks fifth among bigs.
The problem is that entire teams qualify for the playoffs, and the Pelicans have surrounded Davis with a collection of middling talent and oft-injured starters.
Once again beginning the season without three projected starters, the Pelicans spotted the rest of the league eight losses before they won their first game.
The return of Jrue Holiday gave them a spark, and they fought up to a 6-10 record before their recent slide dumped them at 9-20. The reason they make this list is that, despite a painful .310 winning percentage, they are just four games out of the playoffs.
Guard Tyreke Evans just returned to action, and wing Quincy Pondexter is nearing his own return as well. This team, after an incredible number of injuries that past two seasons, is finally getting healthy.
If they can stay that way, there is enough support for Anthony Davis to lead this team into the playoffs.
The benefit to their injured beginning was the playing time for young players who can move forward in confidence in more limited roles. Point guard Tim Frazier is among the league leaders in assists, swing guard Langston Galloway is getting more confident on the perimeter, and rookie Buddy Hield has put together his best games of the season in the past couple of weeks.
Whether their health and development come together to launch this team up the standings remains to be seen. Not only do the Pelicans need to begin winning, but they have to pass four teams ahead of them as they do so.
Anthony Davis gives them the talent to do so, but they can’t afford to spend any more time in the doctor’s office.
Dec 19, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) reacts after scoring during the second half against the Dallas Mavericks at Pepsi Center. The Nuggets 117-107. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Denver Nuggets
If the other Western playoff contenders are driven by their stars, the Denver Nuggets are driven by their depth.
At every position but the point the Nuggets are three deep, which must give coach Mike Malone headaches when sorting out the rotation but allows the Nuggets to weather the injuries that sideline teams such as New Orleans.
Danilo Gallinari is ostensibly the team’s best player, and his versatility to slide between the three and the four allows this team the flexibility to try various lineups.
Wilson Chandler is having a bounceback year after it looked like age and injuries caught up to him a season ago and Kenneth Faried is applying his signature intensity to both ends of the court this year.
Denver’s future is tied to its young talent, and it has plenty of it. Nikola Jokic continues to be a solid plus-minus presence, and his offensive skillset are unique in a 7-footer. Jusuf Nurkic provides a completely different skill set as a bruising rebounder.
Juan Hernangomez is young and has not yet received consistent playing time, but he has shown flashes of a modern stretch-big.
In the backcourt Jamal Murray is already slicing up opposing defenses as a rookie, subjectively trailing only Joel Embiid in the Rookie of the Year race. Gary Harris is a solid shooting guard with starting upside and a lethal deep stroke.
Emmanuel Mudiay hits the floor and races to rack up incredible plays with demoralizing turnovers.
Denver’s future is bright, but their present is more in question. Does Mike Malone focus on developing the young talent, maximizing their minutes to see how the pieces will fit together long-term?
Is Jamal Murray best deployed off the bench as a swing guard, or as the starting point guard in place of the struggling Mudiay? Can Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic play together, or were their early season struggles enough to sink that pairing?
These questions are important, but they may not help this team win as much this season. There is value in getting young players playoff experience, and pushing for the eighth seed has to be somewhere on the organization’s list of priorities.
That means more playing time for Jameer Nelson, Will Barton, Chandler and Gallinari, and less playing time for the likes of Hernangomez and Murray.
If Malone strikes the right balance this team has the talent and the depth to overtake Portland. They are also starting from the best spot, just one half game behind the Trail Blazers.
Although the stars in Sacramento and New Orleans burn bright, Denver’s ability to sustain makes them the most dangerous threat to Portland’s playoff berth.
More from Hoops Habit
This article originally appeared on 
