Nov 25, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Mario Hezonja (8) passes the ball during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game against the Washington Wizards at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
The Orlando Magic seem to have pushed their fifth overall pick from the 2015 NBA Draft deep onto their bench. What options did they pass up?
When the Orlando Magic took Croatian wing Mario Hezonja with the fifth overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, it seemed as if they had found a versatile scorer who could provide some much-needed offensive support to a developing young team.
His rookie year saw him average 6.1 points per game in 17.9 minutes per game. Modest numbers, but enough to whet the appetite. This year has seen him regress. He is putting up just 3.4 points per game in 9.3 minutes per game. On top of that, Hezonja is teetering on the brink of the Magic’s rotation, and has played just 17 minutes in the past three games — 12 of them in Wednesday’s blowout loss to the Charlotte Hornets.
While Mario Hezonja has not exactly done a great deal wrong, he did join Orlando shortly before the club decided to kick its rebuild up a notch. Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton have been affected by that decision too, as the former has had to adjust to playing the small forward role when he starts, while the latter seems to have lost his place as a starter indefinitely.
Heoznja has struggled to find his fit.
Amidst talk of a stint in the D-League, and a flurry of potential trade scenarios, now seems as good a time as any to use the benefit of hindsight to think about how the Magic might have used that fifth overall pick more effectively. Or whether there truly were any better options.
Dec 3, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris (12) and Utah Jazz forward Trey Lyles (41) battle for the ball in the third quarter at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
Trey Lyles
First off, there is an awful lot to like about Trey Lyles.
Although he is currently playing in the shadow of Utah’s other big power forward, Derrick Favors, the 6-foot-10, 234-pound sophomore out of the Kentucky has found a niche for himself on a developing Utah Jazz team.
Taken 12th overall, Lyles had a solid rookie year, averaging 6.1 points and 3.7 rebounds in 17.3 minutes per game. Fast forward a year and he is putting up 9.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game in 21.6 minutes per game, as the banged-up Jazz look to push for the postseason.
If they are to succeed, Lyles’ versatility could be crucial, as, unlike Favors, he can step out to the 3-point line, where he shoots 35 percent. He is also very effective inside too, as this year he has made 46 percent of his shots from inside the arc, while also bumping his free throw percent up to around 80 percent.
In fact, Lyles put in one of the best performances of his career against the Toronto Raptors last week, as he scored 19 points, hitting 4-of-6 from behind the arc and adding seven rebounds in 30 minutes of play.
Had Orlando drafted him over Hezonja they may not have needed to trade for Serge Ibaka. That said, Lyles is still working on his defensive game, as he tends to struggle on the boards and is far from an effective shot blocker.
While it is extremely unlikely Lyles’ rate of development would have suited the Magic, his size and mobility should enable him to become a decent all-around player at some point in the not too distant future.
While his ability to stretch the floor means he would have made an interesting front court mate for Aaron Gordon in smaller lineups, had things played out differently.
Mar 10, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) guards Denver Nuggets guard Emmanuel Mudiay (0) in the second quarter at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Emmanuel Mudiay
Cutting to the chase, Emmanuel Mudiay has been a bit of a disappointment so far.
Taken two picks behind Mario Hezonja by the Denver Nuggets, he averaged 12.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game during his rookie campaign. Those numbers are all right, but this season he is again logging 12.8 points, while his rebounds are up to 4.0 per game and his assist total has fallen to just 3.7.
The problem seems to be Mudiay thinks he is a scorer, when actually his strengths may lie elsewhere.
Just look at his numbers: Mudiay is shooting 36 percent from the field for his career and 32 percent from deep. Shot selection seems to be a problem for him too, as he attempts 12.8 field goals per game, while making just 4.7.
A quick look at the advanced stats reveals he truly does have difficulties on the offensive end, as he has a win shares of -3.9 there. On defense, however, his win shares currently stand at 1.6.
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This is helped by the fact he averages 1.5 steals and 0.7 blocks per game – attributes that suggest he should focus on that side of the ball while getting the shooters around him (Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, etc.) more involved.
If he is able to do that, while improving his own shot selection, Mudiay could develop into a star. And while it is easy to highlight some of the issues that may have deterred Rob Hennigan when he looked at Mudiay, his upside means he should have been worth the gamble.
One can only assume the Magic passed on him because they were still high on Elfrid Payton at the time. But given the fact Payton’s name has appeared in a lot of trade chatter lately, it is hard to understand why they passed Mudiay up. Or, in hindsight, it looks like this may have been a miscalculation or position they could have shored up.
Especially as, with a little maturity and refinement, there is an outside chance he could become the kind of franchise cornerstone Orlando so desperately needs.
Feb 5, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Miami Heat forward Justise Winslow (20) drives to the basket as he is defended by Charlotte Hornets guard Nicolas Batum (5) during the first half of the game at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports
Justise Winslow
Of all the players Orlando could have drafted, Justise Winslow may have been the best fit with the team’s new philosophy. Largely because he is a terrific defender.
During his rookie year, he logged a defensive win shares of 2.7, earning the admiration of teammate at the time Dwyane Wade, who told Bleacher Report:
“I can’t imagine what that would have been like for me—guarding Kobe [Bryant] and [Allen] Iverson at 19. I wasn’t ready. I just know when he’s on the floor, we’re a lot better defensive team.”
At 6-foot-7, 225 pounds Winslow can, much like Aaron Gordon, guard multiple positions, which would undoubtedly have made him very popular with Frank Vogel, not to mention a good fit with the Magic’s young core.
Interestingly enough, his offense has improved in his sophomore year too. He has gone from 6.4 points per game in 28.6 minutes per game in 2016 to 11.5 points per game in 35.4 minutes per game this season.
Winslow is far from a great shooter, but he is already proving himself capable of contributing on a Miami Heat team that is heavily embroiled in a rebuild of its own. For instance, last Thursday he put in a career-best performance, logging 23 points, 13 rebounds and four steals in a win over the Los Angeles Lakers that proved he has the potential to be a threat on both ends of the floor.
Even if he needs time the Magic would not be willing to give him, Winslow’s potential as a two-way player gives him an edge over Hezonja, whose defence to date has left a lot to desire. This one might very well be a player the Magic regre passing over.
Mar 12, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) drives in against Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) during the third quarter at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Suns 123-116. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Devin Booker
Two seasons into his NBA career, Devin Booker has already proved himself the steal of the 2015 Draft.
Taken 13th overall by the Phoenix Suns, Booker has been exceptional thus far, averaging 13.8 points per game in his rookie year and 18.8 points per game this year. He has done this while shooting 40 percent from the field and just worse than 33 percent from deep, making him one of the most exciting young scorers in the league.
Given how low a profile he kept at the University of Kentucky it is unsurprising so many teams passed him up. But the Magic, who clearly wanted a scorer, would have benefited dramatically from his ability to put the ball in the basket, especially now that they moved on from Victor Oladipo.
Booker offensively is essentially the player the Magic hoped Hezonja would be. And it appears Booker did have some interest in playing in Orlando as a rookie.
Like Hezonja, his defense is not up to much. But if he is able to add some muscle to his 6-foot-6, 206-pound frame in the next couple of years he may prove more effective on the perimeter.
That said, given his ability on the offensive end, Booker will not need to worry too much about defense, especially as he will likely now be the cornerstone of a Phoenix team facing a rebuild from its current rebuild.
Had Rob Hennigan drafted him, he would not be scratching around looking for scoring help right now. As, given time and room to develop, Booker has future All-Star written all over him.
Feb 8, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson (6) has his shot blocked by Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (33) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Indiana Pacers defeat the Los Angeles Lakers 89-87. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Myles Turner
Although the Indiana Pacers are struggling this year, Myles Turner has proved to be a great fit with Larry Bird’s new up-tempo approach.
Quick, long and athletic, Turner is a 6-foot-11, 243-pound big man built for the modern game and would be an excellent fit for any team looking to play small.
Taken 11th overall, he averaged 10.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game as a rookie, while shooting a shade worse than 50 percent from the field and 21 percent from three.
His sophomore season has seen an improvement in all those numbers, as Turner is currently putting up 15.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game, while shooting 53 percent from the field and 36 percent from deep.
Throw in the fact he is making just less than 80 percent of his free throws this year while contributing a 1.8 offensive win shares and a 1.5 defensive win shares and you have a pretty great all around package that has been turning heads all season.
One of his biggest admirers may be Doc Rivers, who told the Indianapolis Star recently:
“Turner is going to be a superstar. I think no one will argue that. In fact, it will probably happen quicker than any of us thought. He’s special.”
And it is hard to argue with that, as the youngster appears to be refining his game on a nightly basis.
Playing for Indiana – a team currently trying to forge a new identity – has helped. But given his versatility and the fact he is now adding a 3-point shot to his game it seems as if Turner would have been a good fit just about anywhere.
Not least with the Magic, where a frontcourt pairing with Aaron Gordon would have undoubtedly resulted in bags of fun.
Had Rob Hennigan drafted him instead of Hezonja, it seems likely he could have avoided trading for Serge Ibaka, or signing Bismack Biyombo to a long-term deal.
Turner is, after all, a lot more athletic than Serge Ibaka and more well-rounded than Bismack Biyombo.
Clearly, the Magic had a few options and a few risks the team could have taken. The 2015 rookie class has struggled at the very top as even players like Stanely Johnson have fallen out of the rotation like Hezonja. It seemed fit and opportunity mattered as much as anything for this struggling rookie class. Hezonja is still waiting for his opportunity.
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