In the 2017 NBA Draft, the Orlando Magic will have the opportunity to select a potential franchise cornerstone. Should they draft a point guard?
The Orlando Magic find themselves in yet another rebuild. One could say they never left the rebuilding stage in the past couple of seasons, but it's clear management tried to build a playoff contender for the 2016-17 season.
Unfortunately, that didn't work. At all. The Magic went 29-53, traded away their prized offseason acquisition Serge Ibaka, and fired their general manager Rob Hennigan. Now, the team turns its focus to the 2017 NBA Draft, where it has the sixth overall pick and is looking to draft a potential franchise cornerstone.
The question is: should the Magic target a point guard with their pick?
The short (and easy) answer is that it depends. There's almost no chance that either Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball are available at No. 6, and with De'Aaron Fox gaining momentum on a lot of boards, it looks very likely he will also be drafted before the Magic have their pick.
That would most likely leave Orlando to decide from a variety of players at different positions, from players like Jonathan Isaac, Jayson Tatum and Malik Monk. Of course some of those players could be drafted earlier, but the consensus is that those players will fall in the 5-10 range.
Looking at the Magic roster, it doesn't look like they truly have a promising young player that will become a star in the league. The best shot at such a player is Aaron Gordon, who is coming off of his best season, averaging 12.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Gordon played the majority of his minutes at small forward, even though it's clear he is best suited to be an undersized power forward.
The jury is still out on whether Gordon will develop enough of a polished offensive game or consistent jump shot to be a true offensive threat. It also remains to be seen how Gordon will develop as a defender at the power forward position, leaving many questions about his future.
The Magic have other nice young players such as Terrence Ross and Elfrid Payton, but no one is expecting those players to become stars (or even above-average starters). Then there's recent draft picks that have turned into disappointing players such as Mario Hezonja. This is all to say that the Magic lack a young player that could conceivably turn in to an All-Star, which is why landing one in this year's draft is that much more important.
It is highly unlikely that Fultz, Ball, and Fox are available at No. 6 for Orlando. It's also very likely that Josh Jackson and Tatum are selected in the top five. That would leave the Magic to decide between Isaac, Monk, Dennis Smith Jr., and Frank Ntilikina.
If the Magic truly believe a point guard for the future is their biggest need, then they should choose Smith Jr. Of course, if the Magic feel they need to upgrade at point guard, then they should at least try to trade up in order to take one of Fultz, Ball or Fox. However, even at No. 6 the Magic should be looking for their point guard of the future.
Elfrid Payton will be entering his fourth season, and it looks like he would be best suited for a bench role. Even though Payton is coming off the best season of his career where he averaged 12.8 points, 6.5 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game, he is still a very poor shooter and hasn't contributed to winning games.
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For his career, Payton owns a -0.4 box plus-minus, a 15 Player Efficiency Rating, a 48.7 true shooting percentage, and a win share per 48 minutes of just 0.061. Payton is a good young player, but it looks less and less likely each season that he is the point guard of the future. For a team that is surely about to undergo a long-term rebuild, the Magic should be looking to draft that point guard of the future and allow him to fully develop.
If the Magic were somehow able to trade up even one or two spots in order to draft someone like Fox, then they should. Fox appears to have a similar skill set to Payton, but many are expecting him to be a point guard of the future for the team that drafts him due to his incredible speed, athleticism and defensive ability.
However, if the Magic stay at six, they should look to draft a point guard such as Dennis Smith Jr. Orlando can let Smith Jr. develop as they look to acquire young pieces on the wing through both the draft (where they also have pick No. 25) and free agency (where they could clear a decent amount of cap space through shedding poor contracts).
Currently the state of the Orlando Magic isn't very promising. However, with a good draft the future of the team (especially at point guard) can becoming very intriguing.
