The Atlanta Hawks started off the season hot, then greatly regressed. The team’s shooting guards and small forwards can be looked to as at least part of the problem.
The Atlanta Hawks were at a crossroads in the 2016 offseason. After losing in the playoffs to the Cleveland Cavaliers for two consecutive seasons, it was clear that the road to the NBA Finals goes through Ohio. So which players would the team be willing to keep along for the ride?
Atlanta chose to let star big man Al Horford test free agency, and he eventually signed with the Boston Celtics. They also dealt point guard Jeff Teague to his hometown Indiana Pacers, choosing to move the younger Dennis Schroder into the starting spot.
In turn, they chose to retain two-guard Kent Bazemore by signing him to a new four-year deal. Atlanta also decided to bring in former All-Star center and hometown kid Dwight Howard on a three-year deal to fill Horford’s spot.
The moves proved shrewd for the first 11 games of the 2016-17 season. The Atlanta Hawks started the year 9-2, beating teams by an average margin of 9.6 points per game. The team was first in the Eastern Conference, tied with the Cavaliers.
Suddenly, the bottom fell out. The Hawks went 1-10 over their next 11 games, eight of which were on the road. They were losing to teams by 13.9 points per game. By Dec. 5, they were theoretically out of the playoff picture.
Atlanta is working to right the ship now. The Hawks have gone 5-3 over the last eight games. They last defeated the Denver Nuggets 109-108 at the Pepsi Center on Dec. 23, doing so without Howard, Kyle Korver, and Tim Hardaway, Jr..
The Hawks are 15-15, sitting sixth in the Eastern Conference heading into the holiday weekend.
The Hawks have several team-wide issues that set them back after their hot start. For instance, the team tends to fall asleep on defense, giving up plenty of quick and easy shots.
Atlanta is also 27th in the NBA in turnovers per game, 28th in three-point percentage, and 28th in free throw percentage.
When it comes to individual production, the shooting guard and small forward positions leave a lot to be desired.
There’s a clear line between producers and non-producers in head coach Mike Budenholzer’s nine-man rotation when you look at Player Efficiency Rating. Only four players have a PER above the average watermark of 15.0: Howard (22.4), Paul Millsap (19.2), Schroder (17.2), and Mike Muscala (15.5).
The rest of the rotation falls on the other side of the line. This includes Thabo Sefolosha (14.3), Hardaway, Jr. (13.4), Korver (10.2), Bazemore (10.0), and backup point guard Malcolm Delaney (8.1).
Delaney is still getting adjusted to the NBA after being in Europe for five seasons. The remaining four have been in the league for a combined 31 seasons. They each log major minutes, but have not consistently brought the production so far this year.
Thabo Sefolosha is a defensive-minded player. But he has been called to shoot the ball this season almost more than he ever has. His 6.7 shot attempts per game is his highest average since the latter part of 2009. Sefolosha had joined the Oklahoma City Thunder via a mid-season trade from the Chicago Bulls. He averaged 7.6 attempts in that stint with the Thunder, which marked the beginning of a five-and-a-half season stay there.
His three-pointer has fallen by the wayside, as he has gone 30.0 percent from outside this season. That’s a 4.1 percent drop-off from last year. Hopefully Sefolosha’s outside shot improves. Then again, he also shouldn’t be tasked with putting up so many shots per game.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is a young player that has been inconsistent over his three-seasons-and-change in the league. One night he’ll put up 26 points like he did on Nov. 2 in a losing effort to the Los Angeles Lakers. Other times he will be a non-factor.
Hardaway is shooting 43.9 percent on field goals and 30.9 percent from three-point range. He will certainly work to improve his play, but the road to consistency will probably be a frustrating one for Hawks fans.
Kyle Korver is not playing like the All-Star he was during the 2014-15 season.
Korver is still shooting incredibly well from three, knocking down 41.1 percent of his shots. However, he’s doing so on his fewest attempts per game since arriving in Atlanta. His 4.8 three-point attempts are his lowest output since he put up 4.2 per game in 2011-12, his last season with the Bulls.
Kyle Korver’s 15.6 percent turnover rate is the highest of his career. His .096 free throw rate is his third-lowest, beat out only by last season and his rookie year.
Additionally, Korver — while never being a defensive stopper — has still regressed on that end. His defensive rating of 109 points allowed per possession hasn’t been that high since 2008-09 as a member of the Utah Jazz.
Oddly enough, while Korver has fallen off in a number of areas, Budenholzer has to keep him on the floor for major minutes: He is still the best outside shooter on the team.
Dec 3, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Kent Bazemore #24 of the Atlanta Hawks reacts after drawing a charging foul against the Toronto Raptors in the second quarter at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
But Kent Bazemore has had the most disappointing season of any of the wing players. Coming into the season, the former super-sub was trending up, averaging career highs in almost every major statistical category. He finished last season with 11.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game.
He has unfortunately taken a step back. Bazemore — now the third-highest paid player on the team — is currently averaging 10.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.4 steals per game this season.
His most glaring issue is his shooting. Bazemore is putting up 10.6 field goal attempts per game. That’s third-most on the Hawks and the most he’s put up since he put up 10.7 in his 23-game stint with the Lakers in 2014. However, he has only made 36.4 percent of those shots, and 28.2 percent of his three-pointers.
Bazemore’s scoring has been all over the map. In terms of overall production, he’s had game scores this season ranging from 20.8 to -4.3, whereas 10 is average.
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He had back-to-back 20-point performances in early November. He put up 20 on Nov. 5 against the Houston Rockets and 25 on Nov. 8 at Cleveland. Both games were victories.
Bazemore has gone scoreless twice this season, as well. The first time was in a Nov. 4 loss to the Washington Wizards. The second instance came in a Dec. 5 loss to Oklahoma City. He went 0-for-7 from the field and 0-for-3 from three in both games.
He went 2-for-9 from the field in the Hawks’ win over the Nuggets. Bazemore finished with a statline of five points, four assists, two rebounds, two steals, and two turnovers.
The reasons for his struggles are a mystery. It could be from the pressure of the contract, the recent right knee issue that sidelined him for two games, a level of inconsistency inherent with his talent level, or anything else.
Regardless, it’s important for the Hawks’ fortunes that Kent Bazemore improves as this season progresses.
The Hawks will most likely trudge forward with the lineup as constructed for the forseeable future. However, Atlanta has seven players with contracts that expire this summer and another player — Paul Millsap — that could opt out of his. That seven includes Sefolosha, Korver and Hardaway, Jr.
Whether it is through on-the-court improvement or in the trade and free agent markets, Mike Budenholzer is going to have to solve his wing player problem. If the Atlanta Hawks want to compete in the Eastern Conference, it will have to be sooner rather than later.
