National Basketball Association

The best-case scenario for every NBA Draft lottery team

Published Jun. 23, 2016 3:30 p.m. ET

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Andrew Lynch

On Thursday evening, the NBA will say hello to its newest rookie class. Technically, the Philadelphia 76ers are already on the clock with the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft. 

There's not a whole lot of suspense in the first two selections this year. After that, though, the entire class is a whirling mass of uncertainty, upside, and all of the other draft buzzwords we love so much. 

But it's not any fun to dwell on what could go so catastrophically wrong for these teams and their future players. Instead, let's bathe in the glory of optimism and consider the best-case scenario for all 13 teams (remember, the Suns have two lottery picks) in this year's lottery.

Draft Ben Simmons, have Kris Dunn fall to No. 4, fleece the Suns

We already know what the Sixers are doing with the No. 1 pick, and taking Ben Simmons is the right move. So the best-case scenario on that front is simple: Simmons develops into a Hall of Famer. Done!

There's a lot of speculation headed into the draft that Philly will move Nerlens Noel (or Jahlil Okafor) for the No. 3 pick from the Boston Celtics to take Kris Dunn as well. That's probably a smart move, but the ideal situation would see some team fall in love with Dragan Bender and decide it needs to move up to No. 3 to take him. I don't know about you, but I'd much rather try to make a trade with Phoenix at No. 4 than Danny Ainge and the Celtics. The Suns, after all, are the same team that gave up the rights to the Lakers' top-three protected pick this year for Brandon Knight.

Draft Brandon Ingram, then move forward to free agency

If you want to argue that the best-case scenario for the Lakers is Simmons falling past No. 1, knock yourself out. Anything is possible, as Kevin Garnett once told us.

Realistically, though, the Lakers are locked in with Ingram at No. 2. Much like the Sixers, then, the key will be developing Ingram into the player we all imagine he can be. If he shows glimpses of being "the next Kevin Durant" during his rookie season, maybe that will be enough to pry the real Durant away from Oklahoma City in 2017, assuming he signs a one-year deal with the Thunder this summer.

The Lakers are in a perfect spot to jumpstart their rebuild. As long as they don't overreact and try to skip steps, good times should be right around the corner in Los Angeles.

Resist a pre-draft trade, call the Sixers' bluff, take Kris Dunn, then see how the summer plays out

All indications are that the Sixers desperately want to move one of their big men before the draft, with Nerlens Noel the clear favorite to be traded. Noel would be a fantastic fit in Boston, so if the Celtics want to move the third pick for the Philly big, that's fine.

But Noel doesn't let you play five-out on the perimeter in the way the Celtics might like. Al Horford, however, does. If Boston believes it can sign the Atlanta Hawks free agent -- and it should; a marriage of Horford and the Celtics makes absolute sense -- then trading for Noel could create a bit of a roster logjam.

Unless the Celtics absolutely believe the Sixers are moving Noel today, they should try to play both sides against each other. Take Dunn, the player Philly reportedly wants so badly, then try to sign Horford in free agency. If they do, then they can explore trading Dunn before the season starts or keep him for the future. Flexibility is Danny Ainge's M.O., and he'd be wise to stay consistent on Thursday.

Just don't mess it up

Full disclosure: I grew up a Suns fan, so I'm used to Phoenix disappointing its fans on draft day. Taking Marquese Chriss with the fourth overall pick would follow that trend of disappointment. Chriss' ceiling is ridiculously high, it's true, but Phoenix hasn't shown any patience over the past few years. Can we really trust that ownership will give Chriss the time he needs to develop rather than try to make the playoffs as soon as possible?

If he's still on the board, Dragan Bender should be the pick here for Phoenix. Is he somewhat redundant with Alex Len? Sure. But Len is a known commodity at this point; he's not going to be the world-changing big man Phoenix hoped. At this point in the Suns' perpetual rebuild, you might as well start over.

Dragan Bender or Kris Dunn falls, and the Wolves don't take Buddy Hield

The 2016 draft should be our first real litmus test on how Tom Thibodeau wants to build this team. If the Wolves take Hield, we'll know Thibs is set on winning as soon as possible. And that's fine; Hield's a great shooter, and he'll be ready to play right away.

The ideal situation for Minnesota, however, is that one of the more talented players falls to No. 5, giving the Wolves their pick of the best player available. Bender might not make sense long-term next to Karl-Anthony Towns, but you can always try to trade him later. And if the two can co-exist, you potentially have the modern antidote to the league's trend toward smallball.

Take Jamal Murray or Jaylen Brown, but stay open to a trade

Like the Wolves, the Pelicans have to take the long view on this one. After last year's abysmal season, the urge to turn things around as soon as possible will be overwhelming.

Fight it, Pelicans! FIGHT IT. Yes, Anthony Davis is moving into the next stage of his career and you want to put a decent team around him. But the best thing you can do is acquire assets and try to flesh out as many of the holes in your roster as possible. Murray would be a great start, with his versatility on the wing. Brown's defense, too, would be perfect for a team built around Davis.

But if there's a trade out there that allows New Orleans to move down and add another draft pick, that's the real play.

Hope Marquese Chriss is still available -- and that he reaches his ceiling

Denver is a mishmash of talented young players, Wilson Chandler, and question marks all over the roster. In such a muddied situation that the Nuggets have to take the player with the highest upside. As I mentioned in the Phoenix section, Chriss could very well end up as one of the better players in the league. And Denver will likely have the patience to let him develop alongside Emmanuel Mudiay and the rest of the young Nuggets core.

From there, it's a matter of making sure Chriss has all the help he needs to make it in the NBA.

It doesn't matter, they're drafting Buddy Hield

The Maloofs don't own the Kings any longer, of course, but that doesn't mean Sacramento is any wiser these days. "Maloof" is a state of mind, after all.

So if Hield is still on the board, it's all but a lock that Vivek Ranadive will look to make a splash with the big-name college player of the year. So the best-case scenario for Sacramento is that Hield's dominance last year was more a product of his skill and athleticism than the fact that the 22-year-old was much older than most of college's other stars.

Find replacements for Bismack Biyombo and DeMar DeRozan

The Raptors could be in the best spot of any team outside of the top three. They have two picks in the first round this year, with two very clear needs, assuming Biyombo and DeRozan sign elsewhere in free agency this offseason.

At No. 9, the Raptors should look to take Deyonta Davis. He's not quite the center that Biyombo is, but he'll bring the same physicality, toughness, and nose for the ball on the boards. Then, at No. 27, Toronto will have its pick of the best wings still on the board. Someone like Timothe Luwawu or DeAndre Bembry. It's unrealistic to expect anyone that late in the draft to completely replace DeRozan, should he leave, but a bit of scoring punch from a rookie would be a nice start.

The right spot for Buddy Hield

Hield is a 3-point shooter who knows where he's supposed to be on defense and has decent length. He can defend either guard position, and he'd fit beautifully with Milwaukee's mess of limbs, ballhandling and shooting on the perimeter.

While I'm not super-high on Hield, the Bucks taking him makes a lot of sense for both sides. Hield to Milwaukee is one of the rare moves in this draft that could have an immediate impact on next season.

Make a move into the modern NBA with a real big man

Nikola Vucevic is a very good offensive center. He's been a big part of the Magic for the past four seasons. But he doesn't really help win games in today's style of basketball.

Still, his presence would allow the Magic to draft his eventual replacement and not need the rookie to play right away. Domantas Sabonis would be a great pick, as would Skal Labissiere. Either way, the Magic would need to be patient. But if things go according to plan, they could swoop on their center of the future on Thursday night.

Prepare for the possibility of Al Horford's departure

The Hawks are staring across the abyss at a potential rebuild. Jeff Teague is gone. Al Horford is probably gone. From there, it's all question marks and roster moves for Atlanta.

Teague's replacement is already on the roster in Dennis Schroder. To replace Horford, the Hawks should take a long, hard look at Sabonis, assuming he's still available. In an ideal scenario, he replicates a lot of what Horford already does in Atlanta. Sabonis is an excellent passer, reads the floor well on both ends, rebounds like a monster and is a solid finisher in the pick and roll.

He needs to improve on defense, but the Hawks will have time to let him develop -- assuming their run of playoff appearances ends in 2016-17.

See No. 4 above.

Seriously, Phoenix. Don't mess this up.

Dejounte Murray becomes the cream of a crowded point guard crop

Now that the Derrick Rose era is over, the Bulls could use a point guard. Unfortunately for Chicago, this year's class isn't particularly compelling.

Of the options, I'd roll the dice on Murray. He might be the best ballhandler of the group, and he's a pass-first guy who fits nicely with Jimmy Butler. If the Bulls are going to play up-tempo under Fred Hoiberg, they'll need a solid backcourt to make sure things don't go off the rails. Murray and Butler could very well be that duo.

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To the non-lottery teams, just one bit of advice: Take the player you think works best for you, not the consensus. The NBA is a complex league these days, and making sure your players fit together is just as important as taking the most talented player, particularly when you're already a playoff team.

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