National Basketball Association

How Trae Young's foot injury derailed the NBA playoffs' best betting trend

Updated Jun. 29, 2021 7:47 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

For the past three weeks, I’ve played plenty of "overs" on Trae Young’s points total, and I've made plenty of bets on Young to be the leading scorer in any given game.

The formula was simple: The Atlanta Hawks' superstar was getting ample usage and volume, but his props were too low.

Young began a scorching-hot prop run after Game 2 of Atlanta’s Eastern Conference semifinals series with the Philadelphia 76ers on June 8. In that game, the former Oklahoma Sooner shot 6-for-16 from the floor – including 1-for-7 from 3 – and finished with 21 points.

Heading into Game 3 against Philly, I saw the Young "overs" as a great opportunity. His point prop dipped to over/under 27.5, and his odds to lead the game in scoring ballooned to +225 (bet $10 to win $32.50 total). I perceived the situation as a great "buy low" spot on a player who was due to improve on the stat sheet.

Lo and behold, Young hit a 3-pointer in the final minutes to finish as the game’s top scorer with 28 points.

Lucky? Sure. Winner? Yes.

Trae went on to be the top scorer in Games 4, 5 and 6 at great plus-prices.

In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Milwaukee Bucks, Young led all scorers again with 48 points. He was well on his way in Game 3 before accidentally stepping on an official and bruising a bone in his right foot in the third quarter. Young flew "over" his point prop with 35, but Khris Middleton finished with 38.

"[My foot] is sore right now," Young told reporters after Sunday’s game. "It’s hurting. It’s frustrating."

Now what?

Well, now the handicap is almost impossible. Predicting an injured player’s performance is one of the toughest things to do in sports betting.

It’s almost like … flipping a coin.

"If Trae [had been] announced to start, we [wouldn't] expect to see a huge discrepancy in his prop lines," FOX Bet trading manager Shane Holden told me. "Maybe it’s one or two points less than usual, and that’s more relative to an increased probability of him leaving the game with an injury.

"But in a game of this magnitude, we would expect him to play his projected minutes or be ruled out. If he doesn’t play, all bets will be void."

UPDATE: Young was ruled out shortly before tip-off on Tuesday.

FOX Bet was dealing Young’s Game 4 point prop at over/under 29.5 with heavy juice to the "under" at -143. The market number was identical in the previous game (29.5), but that was without a busted foot.

It made no sense that there hasn’t been an adjustment off 29.5, especially considering that nobody knows the seriousness of Young’s injury. He relies so much on cutting and quickness to get buckets, and odds are good that if he does return this series, he’ll be limited in those areas.

Will he get proper lift on his jumper?

Nobody knows. Nobody. Before Young’s injury, you could pencil him in for 20-plus shots and seven 3-point attempts per night.

Now? It’s OK to admit when you don’t have an edge.

It’s also OK to watch Game 4 closely and recalibrate your attack for Game 5.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.