National Basketball Association

Victor Wembanyama's rapid development, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's clutch gene and the Suns' Small Three

Published Apr. 3, 2024 6:04 p.m. ET

Believe it or not, we've only got a few weeks remaining in the regular season. Meaning playoff basketball — the real most wonderful time of the year — is almost here

In the meantime, here are three trends that have recently caught my eye.

1. Wemby's the NBA's Most Improved Player

Not only has Victor Wembanyama avoided the dreaded rookie wall; he's actually gotten better as the season's gone on. This has been especially so on the offensive end, where he's increased both his usage and efficiency, the mark of true progress. Here are the numbers:

In 28 games before Jan. 1, Wembanyama averaged 18.9 points on 44.2% shooting. In 38 games since the New Year, he's averaged 22.9 points on 48.6% shooting.

The difference has been his shooting, and specifically understanding where on the floor his best shots can come from. Early in the year, Wemby was settling for lots of inefficient long 2s. Over the past three months, he's almost eliminated those from his diet, trimming the percentage of his looks that come from that area. Since Jan. 1, only 7% of his shots have been long 2s, compared to 16% before, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Instead, Wembanyama is taking more shots at the rim and more 3s. He's also boosted his 3-point percentage. He hit just 28% of his deep looks before Jan. 1; since then he's up to 35%. A sign that not only is he taking better shots, but that he's not fatigued, even this late into the season.

His passing and court vision have improved as well. He's upped his assists from 3.0 per game to 4.1.

Wembanyama was already one of the five best defensive players in the NBA. But the fact that his offensive game is progressing at this rate should terrify the rest of the league. It also should put him at the top of voters' Most Improved Player ballots. We almost never see this sort of in-season growth. It'd be nice to see it rewarded.

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's clutch dominance

Of all the impressive things the Oklahoma City Thunder have done this season, the most surprising might be how good they've been in close games, an area where young teams typically struggle. OKC is 22-13 in "clutch" games — defined as contests that are within five points at any point in the game's final five minutes. Only three teams have won more of these games. And while there are a bunch of reasons the Thunder have been so good in these situations, chief among them has been Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Entering Tuesday night, only seven players had scored more points in the last five minutes of close games this season. More impressive is the 57.4% he's shot in clutch time, a mark that, among the top-20 clutch time scorers, only Nikola Jokic (57.6%) has eclipsed.

SGA's also dished out 19 assists in these situations, compared to just four turnovers.

He can get to the basket whenever he wants, and has the ability to finish in traffic and through contact. He's also big enough to just rise up over smaller defenders, like he did over the weekend against the Knicks.

All of which is to say: The Thunder might be young, but they also have one of the game's best closers. Don't be surprised if you see SGA bury a few teams with late game heroics come playoff time.

3. Phoenix's Not-So-Big Three

The Suns' decision to trade for Bradley Beal over the offseason was predicated on a single bet: They knew depth would be an issue given the NBA's salary cap structure, but they figured the threesome of Beal, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker would be so dominant that it wouldn't matter. It wasn't quite LeBron James saying that with him, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh on the floor for the Miami Heat could have Pat Riley play point guard, and it wouldn't matter, but the logic was the same.

It hasn't exactly gone that way, and not just because Beal has missed nearly 30 games. In the 693 minutes the three have played together, the Suns have outscored opponents by only 6.9 points per 100 possessions. That's a solid number, but not nearly good enough to warrant the amount of cap room those three players are occupying. As a point of comparison, 11 high-usage, five-man lineups have been more efficient than the Suns' grouping of Durant, Booker, Beal, Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic, according to Cleaning the Glass. That includes two from the Magic and one from the Pacers. Again, a decent ranking, but not nearly what the Suns are paying for.

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The issues, not surprisingly, have mostly come on the defensive end. With their Big Three on the floor the Suns have surrendered points at a bottom-10 rate.

But the Suns also knew coming into the season that defense would be an issue. They just assumed they'd be able to outgun everyone, and it's here where they've failed.

Yes, lineups with Booker, Durant and Beal have scored 122.5 points per 100 possessions, a mark in line with Boston's league-leading number. But again, the Suns' bet was that their Big Three would make their offense leaps and bounds better than the rest of the league and create enough of a margin to make up for their lack of depth and defensive shortcomings. That hasn't happened. If you want to understand why Phoenix, with less than 10 games remaining in the regular season, finds itself in the play-in grouping, look no further than its inability to optimize its stars.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports and the author of Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports. Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.

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