Washington Wizards
Mar 7, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2), guard Bojan Bogdanovic (44) and forward Otto Porter Jr. (22) against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Wizards will have a tough call this offseason with a number of players having the possibility of leaving in free agency, and with limited cap space, the Wizards need to think on every decision carefully.
The 2017 NBA offseason will be one of subtle movements for the Washington Wizards. The team is for the most part locked in to a couple of lengthy contracts with its core, but some key players aren't as fortunate to have their money locked up for the next couple of years.
Some players on the Wizards are either restricted free agents or unrestricted free agents, and decisions on whether the team wants retain them is coming up fast.
Just to make the decision harder, reports have emerged stating the salary cap is going to be regressing $3 million from $102 million to $99 million. This will give teams like the Wizards even less freedom to work with in free agency, meaning they need to be careful about letting players go on their current roster.
Bearing all that in mind, here's a look at the Washington Wizards' four big free agents — Brandon Jennings, Bojan Bogdanovic, Trey Burke and Otto Porter Jr. — this offseason and whether the organization should attempt to keep them.
May 4, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard Brandon Jennings (7) dribbles the ball as Boston Celtics guard Terry Rozier (12) defends in the third quarter in game three of the second round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Verizon Center. The Wizards won 116-89. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Brandon Jennings
Jennings was the main backup point guard behind John Wall toward the end of the Wizards' season. He was released by the New York Knicks and promptly picked up, only to make about one-fifth of the money he was making in New York.
During his time with the Wizards, he played in 23 games, averaging 3.5 points per game and 4.7 assists per game. He maintained a positive plus/minus and took care of the ball incredibly well. The problem with Brandon Jennings last year was his inability to shoot the ball. He shot 27.4 percent from the field and only 21.2 percent from beyond the arc.
Those are horrible numbers for any team. Jennings finished the season with the worst field goal percentage on the entire team, and the second worst three-point percentage behind Andrew Nicholson.
The Wizards could probably live with his bad shooting if he were willing to take a cheap contract, but with the trade for Tim Frazier, it isn't financially responsible to dedicate anything more than the minimum to a third string guard spot.
Final Decision: Don't retain
Mar 7, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Washington Wizards guard Bojan Bogdanovic (44) against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Bojan Bogdanovic
On Feb. 22, 2017, Bojan Bogdanovic was traded to the Wizards from the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for their first round pick. This was a smart trade for both teams at the time. The Wizards needed to add shooting for the playoffs and the Nets needed any sort of asset they could acquire.
But here we are, just a few months later, trying to figure out how much Bojan Bogdanovic is worth and if the Wizards should retain him. Plain and simple, they should retain Bogdanovic; the problem is, for at what price? Bojan is a restricted free agent, meaning any team could offer him as much money as they want and if the Wizards don't match it, he's able to walk away.
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This puts the Wizards franchise in an interesting position. They may be just waiting to see if any team finds Bogdanovic useful enough to offer him a big deal. The problem is, if they look at his numbers, they might find that he's pretty useful. During both the playoffs and the regular season, Bojan Bogdanovic was in the top five players on the Wizards in three-point percentage. During the regular season he shot 39.1 percent from three and during the playoffs he shot 35.6 percent.
The way the league is going now, almost every team in the league will take on a consistent three-point shooter, including any number of championship level teams.
The downside to Bogdanovic is that he's a problem defensively. In last year's playoffs, Bojan had the third-worst defensive rating on the team at 113.2. During the regular season he had the fourth worst at 109.2. He's clearly someone teams have to hide on the defensive side of the ball, but we saw the Cleveland Cavaliers take fliers on offensive players like Deron Williams and Kyle Korver, even with their defensive limitations.
My final analysis is that the Wizards should retain Bojan, but only for a reasonable price.
Final Decision: Retain at the right price
Feb 13, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard Trey Burke (33) dribbles as Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jerami Grant (9) defends during the second half at Verizon Center. Washington Wizards defeated Oklahoma City Thunder 120-98. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Trey Burke
Trey Burke has had a lackluster NBA career so far. Through his four years in the league, he's averaged 5.0 points and 1.8 assistsper game. Some may credit those poor numbers with a lack of opportunity, but some may also say his lack of opportunity stems from his inability to be effective on the court for the Wizards.
In his previous three years with the Utah Jazz, he averaged well over 20 minutes a game, 12 points per game and 4.1 assists per game. But his numbers and role have been rapidly diminishing since his rookie season:
Trey Burke has slowly turned into a backup point guard in the NBA. He became less and less effective for the Jazz, until it didn't make sense to keep him on the roster. The Wizards picked him up, hoping to grab a solid contributor behind John Wall, and he hasn't delivered.
Burke had the second worst plus/minus score on the team at -2.8. He also had a horrible net rating of -9.2. Burke just hasn't been effective in any capacity for the Wizards, and with his assisting ability rapidly declining, it doesn't make sense to match his qualifying offer of $4.2 million, even if they they hadn't just traded for a better backup point guard like Frazier.
Final Decision: Don't retain
Washington Wizards
Apr 26, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards forward Otto Porter Jr. (22) celebrates with fans while leaving the court after the Wizards' game against the Atlanta Hawks in game five of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Otto Porter Jr.
Porter Jr. will most definitely be the biggest decision for the Wizards to make this offseason. Otto Porter Jr. is a restricted free agent, meaning again, that they will have the chance to match any offer another team makes for him.
The problem is, Otto Porter Jr. is too good. He shot so efficiently from the field this season that he might be attracting close to max offers from teams desperate to get young talent on their teams. Just to give a better sense of how good Otto Porter Jr. is at shooting the ball.
Take a look at the league leaders in effective field goal percentage, a stat used to take into account how three-point shots are worth more than two-point shots:
Yes there are a good amount of players above Otto Porter Jr. on this list, but let's look a little bit closer. Firstly, look at how many of these players shoot three-point shots. None consistently except for two: Kyle Korver and Otto Porter Jr.. So of the players who actually contribute spacing and three-point shooting to their teams, Otto Porter Jr. is only beaten by Kyle Korver here.
Secondly, every single one of these players was in the playoffs this year. That tells you something about how important effective shooting can be. It's not a coincidence that guys who are efficient with their shooting find themselves on winning teams; it's in part their shooting that's helping get their teams there.
If people look long and hard at the numbers, they'll find what the Wizards already know. Otto Porter Jr. has gotten much better every year he's in the league, he's one of the most efficient shooters in the league, and he deserves an expensive and lengthy contract.
Though it may take up a lot of the Wizards' cap space, the salary cap rules favor retaining players on their current teams, and the Wizards should invest in Otto Porter Jr. as the young promising talent of the future.
Final Decision: Retain at all costs
