National Basketball Association

Western Conference finals: How to bet LA Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns

Updated Jun. 20, 2021 10:32 a.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Uncertainty can be a gambler’s worst enemy. And the Western Conference finals are filled with uncertainty.

How many games — beyond Game 1 — will Chris Paul miss after entering COVID protocols on Wednesday? What is the severity of Kawhi Leonard’s knee injury, which cost him the final two games of the Utah Jazz series? Leonard has been ruled out for Game 1, but there’s no news beyond that.

Nobody having a clue about two of the four best players in the series makes gambling on this matchup extremely dangerous. So let’s focus on what we know.

The Clippers predictably overwhelmed the Jazz on the wings in the conference semifinals, which we mentioned in the preview of that series. It was a bad matchup for Utah, even after Leonard went down. Center Ivica Zubac played just 79 minutes in the six games and didn’t score a basket in the final two games, as LA went small, with Terance Mann and Reggie Jackson leading the way and bombing away, making 16 3-pointers in Game 5 and 20 in Game 6.

Will they be able to do that against DeAndre Ayton, who is averaging 15 and 10 in his first postseason? Rudy Gobert’s main problem was that he was limited offensively because he is most effective in the pick-and-roll with point guard Mike Conley. With Conley in the series against the Memphis Grizzlies, Gobert averaged nine shots (80% shooting), 17 points and 13 rebounds per game. Without Conley, Gobert attempted just six shots (71%), scored 12 PPG and collected 11 RPG.

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As long as Paul returns from COVID and is healthy, the Suns' offense will keep Ayton on the floor. Defensively, he has been a monster, helping the Suns to the No. 1 defensive rating in the playoffs. I’ll be looking to bet player props on Ayton — if CP3 is playing. I will also look to take unders on Paul because his inflated numbers in the conference semis against the Denver Nuggets came against an all-backup backcourt. The Clippers, who were torched by Donovan Mitchell early in the series, should be able to rotate a bevy of defenders onto CP3 to slow his lethal midrange game.

The Suns are much stronger defensively on the wing, as Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges are plus defenders, and Phoenix's bench is deeper on the perimeter as well, with Cam Payne, Cameron Johnson and even Torrey Craig capable of defending. The Suns came into the playoffs with one primary concern: Not having an elite defender to contend with LeBron or Kawhi. Well, the Lakers lost Anthony Davis, and the Suns were able to clog the lane against LeBron; now Kawhi might not play because of an ACL injury.

The Suns had three players in the top 25 of defensive real plus-minus this season (Ayton 11th, Paul 15th, Bridges 25th). The Jazz ranked third in defensive efficiency this season but were without point guard Conley for the first five games, and Mitchell’s sprained ankle limited him defensively. It doesn’t matter if you rank second in 3-point field-goal defense if your starting backcourt is hobbled. The Clippers feasted from deep. Will LA benefit again if Paul misses time?

It’s difficult to find a clear advantage for the Kawhi-less Clippers, unless of course, Ty Lue can get this to a Game 7, in which he’s 4-0 in his career. Paul George was magnificent in three games this season against Utah, shooting 60% on 3-pointers and averaging 32 points per game. The Clippers won both games Kawhi played.

The Clippers' second half of Game 6 against Utah — in which they scored 81 points — will have many thinking they can hang with the Suns. But how sustainable is 14-for-19 on 3-pointers in a half at home? What are the odds that Mann has another 39-point game, when he never topped 25 in a game all season?

Chris Paul is out for Game 1, but I don't expect him to miss extended time, so I’ll take a small bite of Suns in five.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.