Feb 15, 2017; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) celebrates his basket against the Brooklyn Nets with guard Matthew Dellavedova (8) during the third quarter at Barclays Center. Milwaukee won 129-125. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
The Milwaukee Bucks have not folded in the absence of Jabari Parker. If the team continues to win games, what does it mean for the team and for Parker moving forward?
The Milwaukee Bucks enter the All-Star break on a bittersweet note. While the NBA world loves a neat, feel-good narrative — or similarly, an equally obvious disaster (hello, New York Knicks!) much of the time the scale is balanced somewhere in between.
That applies for Milwaukee as well, which is holding the good and bad as it takes a week off.
Just one week ago the organization discovered one of its rising stars, Jabari Parker, suffered a torn ACL against the Miami Heat and would need a full 12 months to recover. In losing to the Heat and the Lakers two nights later, the Bucks hit rock bottom.
Not only were they eight games below .500, but they were 11th in the Eastern Conference with the playoffs vanishing in the distance.
Three games later, and the Bucks enter the break on a three-game winning streak. That brief successful run includes victories over the Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons, two teams ahead of them in the standings.
Instead of 11th in the East, the Bucks are now ninth and just one game back of Detroit for the eighth and final playoff berth. The Chicago Bulls are just another half game beyond them.
Which is a clearer indication of the Bucks moving forward? Are they the team struggling to stop opponents or the team locking teams down to sub-20 point quarters? Do they have a hole at power forward or a collection of versatile talent waiting to be utilized?
Those questions will be on hold for a week, but the implications are already swirling. If the Bucks can ride this recent momentum and strike amidst a faltering Eastern Conference, the playoffs are clearly in reach. What else will it mean if the Milwaukee Bucks keep winning basketball games?
Feb 15, 2017; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) celebrates his basket against the Brooklyn Nets with guard Matthew Dellavedova (8) during the third quarter at Barclays Center. Milwaukee won 129-125. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
The Bucks Can Make The Playoffs
The idea that the Bucks could recover and make the playoffs seemed like a foreign concept just days ago. According to FiveThirtyEight’s playoff odds, Milwaukee had just an 18 percent chance to make the playoffs one week ago.
Those odds have now doubled to 37 percent as the Bucks have put Charlotte and Miami in the rear-view mirror and leapt towards Detroit, Chicago and Indiana.
That isn’t to say the Bucks are a lock for the postseason, nor even that it is likely that they will be suiting up past April 12. But what was a whisper of a dream just days ago is now something that can be understood, and the path to realization is coming into focus before their feet.
Helping the Bucks’ cause has been the collapse of the teams around them in the standings. The New York Knicks and Charlotte Hornets are a combined 11-34 since New Year’s Eve and both are almost assuredly out of the playoff race.
The Knicks are embroiled in organization and public relations disaster, and the Hornets are unable to get production out of any big other than Cody Zeller, who is in and out of the lineup with injuries.
While each has talent to lean on, their rate of decay and the uphill climb before each seems too great to overcome.
The Miami Heat are the opposite of dying, as they have won 14 of their last 16, including 13 games in a row, to re-enter the playoff mix following an 11-30 run. That streak included two wins over the Bucks.
Miami could still defy the odds and fight past Milwaukee once again, but their run seems more an aligning of the stars and not a sustainable flight path.
Milwaukee will both need to continue winning and see either Chicago or Detroit falter. With the locker room drama in Chicago and the inconsistencies of Detroit’s stars, both are possible if not likely.
That could see a more consistent Milwaukee team take the step back to the postseason despite the loss of Jabari Parker.
Feb 13, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Khris Middleton (22) takes a shot against Detroit Pistons forward Marcus Morris (13) in the third quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Khris Middleton Is Part Of Their Long-Term Core
The loss of a fringe All-Star such as Jabari Parker is a tough pill for any team to swallow, especially one that has struggled to find consistent minutes from its big men.
But Milwaukee received something very few teams in that position receive — a returning star to fill his spot in the hierarchy.
Khris Middleton has stepped into the void left by Jabari Parker and performed well as he returns from a serious hamstring injury. While Middleton doesn’t play the same position as Parker, he can handle a scoring load similar to Parker’s and fill his role as the closing scorer for the team.
Head coach Jason Kidd has eased Middleton back into the rotation, giving him the game off against Indiana and playing him limited minutes in every game thus far since his return last Wednesday.
But with each passing game Middleton has increased his point totals and his two-way impact as the team has relied on him more and more in important situations.
Middleton’s high point thus far was against the Brooklyn Nets, where he played late-game minutes in putting the Nets away.
The Bucks put the ball in his hands during the final minute as Brooklyn was intentionally fouling and Middleton responded with a perfect 5-for-5 outing at the line. On defense his length fit smoothly into the team’s scheme, and his quick hands picked off three steals.
Another week off will help Middleton’s body prepare for the stretch run, as the team will rely on him even more as the games get more difficult.
But what he has shown in returning from injury is that the elite player who lead the team in scoring last season is the one returning from injury and locked into this team for multiple years to come.
Feb 13, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (5) gets a pass away from Milwaukee Bucks forward Michael Beasley (9) and center Greg Monroe (15) in the fourth quarter at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The Bucks beat the Pistons 102-89. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
The Hole At Power Forward Isn’t So Large After All
One of the biggest concerns with the loss of Parker was a gaping hole at power forward. With five centers on the team and only one natural power forward, Mirza Teletovic, the way Jason Kidd would manage his rotations was an area of great interest.
The fear for many fans was that Kidd would “go big” and slot one-time power forwards Greg Monroe or Spencer Hawes at the 4, even though both are clearly best deployed at the 5. But instead, Kidd has gone the other way and it is working for Milwaukee.
Over their three-game winning streak the Bucks have started the combination of rookie Thon Maker at center and wing Michael Beasley at power forward.
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Beasley has posted a positive plus/minus in each contest, while keeping sharpshooter Teletovic as the bench scorer and floor spacer.
Kidd has also flexed his other roster option, which was to slide Giannis Antetokounmpo to power forward and insert Khris Middleton at small forward, pairing them with two guards and a center.
This lineup saw the floor for portions of their win over the Brooklyn Nets as Kidd played Antetokounmpo 20 of his game-high 40 minutes at the 4. He also dropped 33 points as part of a robust stat line.
As the league shifts smaller and smaller, using a combination of wings at the 4 seems to be increasingly tenable, and it has worked for Kidd so far. It also unlocks the most switchable lineups, fitting seamlessly into the Bucks’ preferred defensive approach.
While relying on Michael Beasley long-term is a scary proposition for any team, the versatility of Milwaukee’s All-Star forward means when the chips are down neither Beasley or Teletovic need to be on the court.
Feb 3, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker (12) shoots the ball during the first half against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
This Team May Not Need Jabari To Be Successful
In addition to the positional maw Parker left behind, he also left a large offensive burden waiting to be picked up by his teammates.
With catch-and-shoot wings and ground-bound centers, Parker was the team’s best option to attack the defense and took on the brunt of the scoring whenever Antetokounmpo sat.
In the games Parker has missed that load has been passed around from game to game, with different players stepping up in the frontcourt.
In their win over Indiana, Thon Maker stepped in and shot 3-of-5 from behind the arc for 12 points in 22 minutes, and Teletovic hit another five triples of his own for 19 points. Their victory over Detroit was Michael Beasley’s show, as he poured in 23 points on 10-for-13 shooting.
Greg Monroe has put up 50 points of his own over their last two games on 24-of-31 shooting.
If offensively the Bucks can manage without Parker, defensively they have a much higher ceiling. While the effort was there, Parker was an average defender at best.
While Beasley isn’t an upgrade defensively, crunch-time lineups featuring Antetokounmpo at the 4 unlock a more versatile and smothering defensive weapon.
The team’s reliance on Parker long-term is also called into question. Milwaukee last made the playoffs during Parker’s rookie season, one he missed the majority of with his last ACL tear. In 2016 the team failed to make the postseason as Parker nursed his way back to health.
While Parker is clearly a valuable player, this team simply morphs into a different creature in his absence — and one that is not necessarily worse.
With Jabari Parker eligible for an extension this offseason, the team will have to take a hard look at how it wants to spend its money moving forward. A 20-point scorer at the 4 who is developing a three-point shot and can attack the basket is worth keeping around at a high price tag.
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But a defensive liability coming off of his second ACL tear that the team can live without? Suddenly his value becomes more nebulous. If Milwaukee keeps winning, not only can they see the results of a world without Parker, but it gives them leverage going into contract negotiations.
Milwaukee knows it is not better off without Parker – he is one of the most talented young offensive players in the league, he works hard, and the organization loves him.
A full rotation featuring Parker, Antetokounmpo and Middleton never got to see the court, and there is every reason to think that team could have reached the postseason.
Milwaukee is winning, and that is a gift to its fans and hope for the future. If this team can achieve success this season and go into next year adding Parker back into something good, their chances of reaching their potential only increases.
There is a lot of talent on the Bucks and even in Parker’s absence it is shining through.
