What should the Phoenix Suns do with Alex Len's restricted free agency?
Mar 17, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns center Alex Len (21) runs up the court in the first half of the NBA game against the Orlando Magic at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
Heading into 2017 NBA free agency, what can the Phoenix Suns expect from Alex Len's restricted free agency? Here's a look at how it may all unfold.
After seven straight seasons of missing the playoffs, the Phoenix Suns are going all in on their developing youth movement. From Devin Booker to T.J. Warren to rookies Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender and Tyler Ulis, there's plenty to be excited about for the future.
But even when Phoenix's upcoming draft pick, Alan Williams and Derrick Jones Jr. are thrown in that mix, why is it that Alex Len's name only gets included as a courtesy nod?
Heading into the 2017 NBA offseason, the Suns don't figure to be free agency players once again, other than perhaps finding more veteran help for the young locker room.
The biggest item on general manager Ryan McDonough's agenda — and one that somehow continues to slip under the radar — is Len's upcoming restricted free agency.
Whether it's been injury, limited opportunity or just outright underwhelming play through his first four years in the league, the former No. 5 pick of the 2013 NBA Draft has not lived up to his billing as a franchise center. He's shown flashes of potential, but are they worth investing in this summer? And what would a reasonable, realistic extension look like for the seven-footer?
As McDonough tries to assemble what the Suns hope will become a championship core in the future, the decision to extend Len or let him walk is a low-key important moment. Here's a look at Alex Len's value and what to expect from his restricted free agency.
Apr 11, 2017; Sacramento, CA, USA; Phoenix Suns center Alex Len (21) reacts during the second quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
Len's season review
Len's rookie season was limited by injury rehab and "Miles Plumlee, starting center" being a thing. In his second season, more injuries and the fact that it was Len's first full season as a starter led to another underwhelming year. In his third season, the arrival of Tyson Chandler shackled what figured to be a breakout year.
Chandler's tutelage of Len was advertised as one of the main assets he brought to the team, but in the young Ukrainian's fourth season, the Padawan never surpassed the Master in the starting lineup as expected — even with Phoenix clearly veering toward an emphasis on youth.
In 2016-17, Len averaged 8.0 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 20.3 minutes per game — decreases from the season before, in which he averaged a career-high 9.0 points, a career-high 7.6 rebounds and 0.8 blocks in a career-high 23.3 minutes per game.
In the 25 minutes McDonough spent addressing the media during exit interviews, Len's name didn't come up once until the very last question. So what did the GM see from the first player he ever drafted with the Suns?
"Flashes," McDonough said, almost restraining a sigh in the process. "Flashes of talent. He generally rebounds the ball well. His rim protection numbers were pretty good, especially at the start of the year.
"I think the key for him will just be developing consistency. His high-end games were pretty good, there were other games where he struggled. So just trying to level those out. I talked about it as it relates to point guards, but bigs a lot of times take a little longer to develop as well."
Not exactly a ringing endorsement from the guy who's supposed to be writing him a new check this summer.
Though Len improved his field goal percentage from a dismal 42.3 percent last season to a more respectable 49.7 percent this year, the 2016-17 campaign marked the second consecutive time an expected breakout season fizzled.
Chandler had a great season for a 34-year-old, but Len being unable to usurp him in the lineup silently spoke volumes, and Phoenix's refusal to slot him in as the starter until the All-Star break when Tyson was shut down, did him no favors.
"Alex knows that he has a lot of potential and I think the summer is always going to dictate your season," head coach Earl Watson said. "So you can't be passive about your summer, you have to be aggressive in your workout routine, weightlifting, cardio, skill development."
That's all well and good, but it does little to settle Phoenix's restricted free agency dilemma with a still-raw center who has the supposed skill set to be an anchor at the 5 but little of the follow-through.
Apr 9, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Dallas Mavericks center AJ Hammons (20) boxes out Phoenix Suns center Alex Len (21) in the second half of the NBA game at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Suns won 124-111. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
Strengths and weaknesses
The numbers are pretty condemning for Alex Len.
His -5.2 plus/minus this season was the worst on the roster aside from Brandon Knight. Even in Suns victories, he was one of only four players (the others being Knight, Ronnie Price and Elijah Millsap) that still posted a negative plus/minus.
His 99.4 offensive rating was worse than any regular rotation player other than Knight. His 110.5 defensive rating was better than only Knight, T.J. Warren and Marquese Chriss. His -11.1 Net Rating, aside from being abysmal, was better than only Knight and Price.
The Suns were 7.4 points per 100 possessions better offensively when Len was on the bench, and they were 2.0 points per 100 possessions stingier on the defensive end without him. He's still as foul-prone as ever, committing 5.6 fouls per 36 minutes this season.
Len averaged 5.2 points in the paint per game this season, trailing Eric Bledsoe, T.J. Warren, Devin Booker, Tyson Chandler and Alan Williams. His rebounding and defensive rebounding percentages were third-best on the team, but they paled in comparison to the team's other two centers:
In Watson's wonky, frequently fluctuating rotations, Alex Len was often a casualty. The Suns did not always put him in a position to be successful, not only because he hardly played with the team's best players, but because they had him trying to do too much.
"Anytime you have a talented young player who has the ability to do a number of different things, it's tempting to throw a lot at them," McDonough said. "So I think one of our focuses will be what can we do in the offseason with Alex that's game-specific to maybe simplify a little bit, get him really good at a couple of different things at a high level and then try to layer it in year by year."
It's evident to everyone involved Len's growth will still be a multi-year process, but do the Suns actually want to invest the time and resources?
If Len's minutes this season are any indication, the answer is no, especially with only marginal improvement based on his time with the starters vs. coming off the bench:
Len's numbers went up across the board while playing with the starters, and nearly into "acceptable" territory for an NBA starting center. Unfortunately, his plus/minus was even worse going up against other team's starting centers, and he hardly seized the moment when Chandler was shut down.
True enough, Phoenix's starting lineups by season's end could hardly qualify as the team's best players, but a look into lineups that might have made Len look better in the plus/minus column do him no favors either.
Of the successful lineups with Len in them this season, only the following four posted a significant enough total plus/minus AND played enough minutes to be worth mentioning:
Other than the lineup with Chandler and Len playing together, these are all combinations Watson should've tried more often than he did, especially with the emphasis being on the future.
However, there are two noteworthy lineups the Suns would've liked to work out better that absolutely tanked this season, both of which featured Len:
Why are these lineups noteworthy? Because they were two of Phoenix's five most played lineups this season, they posted the two worst total point differentials out of any five-man Suns lineup, and they all involve essential pieces of the team's present/future.
In Len's defense, his horrific numbers were not helped by the fact that he often played alongside Brandon Knight, a plus/minus Dementor who finished with the NBA's 10th-worst total plus/minus despite missing the last 25 games of the season. In fact, eight of the Suns' 10 worst Len lineups also featured Knight.
"The truth is, we have to put him in a better position," Watson said in early February. "We have to say Alex Len is a skilled big, he can't be a big that just blocks shots and runs the court. Because he is a skilled big and is talented, we have to make him comfortable on the court. Give him jump shots at the elbow, throw him the ball in the post and we have to have unconditional love and live with the fact that he will not be perfect, but we push toward consistency."
Assuming the Suns ignore all the tell-tale signs of an underwhelming talent, and assuming they can simplify the game for a guy who was outplayed by Alan Williams down the home stretch, the question still remains: What would a contract offer for Len look like this summer?
Dec 23, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) and center Alex Len (21) against the Philadelphia 76ers at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Suns defeated the 76ers 123-116. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Expectations for Len's next contract
Len is not the type of restricted free agent the Suns should actively work to re-sign. He's the kind to bide their time with, waiting to see if other offers roll in before deciding, and if no other offers come in, perhaps even hoping he plays the 2017-18 season out on his $4.2 million qualifying offer.
That being said, a look at last year's massive paydays for big men does not inspire much hope the Suns can keep Len on a manageable contract extension if it comes to that:
Howard, Whiteside, Horford and Drummond are clearly in a different tier from Len, but they helped set the market for the atrocities that Mozgov, Plumlee and Noah received. Even the slightly more defendable deals like Biyombo or Mahinmi seem daunting to pay a guy like Len.
Something like Al Jefferson's three-year, $30 million deal would be much more favorable, but also highly realistic for a 23-year-old with potential. Just because the Suns weren't willing to start him at center for a full season doesn't mean other teams with nothing to lose will feel the same.
Last summer, the Brooklyn Nets weren't shy about trying to poach other team's restricted free agents, signing Tyler Johnson to a four-year, $50 million offer sheet before giving Allen Crabbe a four-year, $75 million offer. For a team with cap space that's been trying to acquire young talent and has not been shy about its intentions of trading Brook Lopez, Len could easily wind up on their radar.
Is it really so unreasonable to suggest the Suns face the prospect of matching a four-year contract offer worth around $16 million-$18 million annually? He's still young and has more upside than Alan Williams, a player the Suns are high on despite his lack of athleticism and lower ceiling.
Getting Len for $10 million-$12 million a year would be fair value the Suns re-signing Len, but with his market value potential stretching into the $13 million-$18 million range, it'd be unlikely — or foolish — for Phoenix to match that kind of offer.
And even if McDonough could buy some time to tap into Len's potential with a deal in that $10 million-$12 million range, is that really a preferable option to keeping Phoenix native Alan Williams — another restricted free agent — on a cheaper contract?
Jan 26, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Phoenix Suns center Alex Len (21) misses a dunk during the first period against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Final verdict
Alan Williams, a third string center, outplayed Alex Len and stole a large chunk of his minutes after Tyson Chandler was shut down for the season. The Suns might even have long-term replacements for Len already with Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss.
The biggest question now is whether the Suns still believe Len can live up to his billing as a starting-caliber center in this league.
"I believe so," Chandler said. "I think Alex also has some things this summer he has to work on. Being real dominant down there in that post. He's a completely different player than I am. I think his game is more get down on the block, left shoulder, right shoulder hooks and being able to demand a double-team. That's where he's gonna see his best days is down there and being one of those throwback bigs."
Again, that's not exactly an encouraging forecast as the NBA dives further and further into a small-ball, pace-and-space league where size is secondary to positional versatility and three-point shooting.
The Suns experimented with Len shooting threes, particularly from the corner, but if their focus is simplifying the game for him, that kind of reach-for-the-stars development will once again take a backseat.
"It's just the way the NBA's going: small," Watson said in early February when asked about Len's dwindling minutes. "If you start a seven-footer in the first unit, you really don't have one to back up."
With Len still unable to switch pick-and-rolls to defend the perimeter, his decent rim protection and ho-hum rebounding numbers are hardly encouraging.
His supposed "touch" and "improved strength" have only resulted in middling efficiency around the basket and a midrange shot that is as ineffective as ever. If Len is a post-up player, the Suns are in trouble. If Len is meant to spread the floor with a midrange shot, the Suns are still in trouble.
Alex Len's 2016-17 NBA shot chart, per NBA.com/stats
Even though he doesn't turn 24 until June and has been hampered by injuries, Len's lack of significant progress this season is not the kind of player you waste future cap space on, especially with T.J. Warren eligible for a contract extension, Alan Williams available on the cheap and future deals for Booker, Chriss, Bender, Ulis and this year's first round draft pick to worry about down the road.
The Suns are trying to assemble a championship core. Len is not as bad as he's made out to be, but he's still a below-average center in this league, regardless of which teammates he's sharing the floor with. He may not be durable enough to even be a starter in this league, never playing more than 23.3 minutes per game in a single season.
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Phoenix squandered an opportunity to really get a feel for what his role in this rebuild might be, but even with a lack of minutes, what Len did show this season wasn't enough to warrant matching the kind of offer he may receive as a restricted free agent this summer.
Ideally, there's very little interest in Len around the league and the Suns are able to start him for the entire 2017-18 season on his $4.2 million qualifying offer, giving them the ability to postpone a contract extension another year, when they'll be able to more properly gauge his fit with this core for the long haul.
Even something like a four-year, $48 million deal wouldn't be the end of the world if the Suns can move what left of Tyson Chandler's deal and finally find a taker for Brandon Knight. Don't forget, by 2018-19, in the last year of Chandler and Knight's deals, the Suns still only project to have $52.7 million on the books.
However, that cap space can fill up rather quickly with a Len, Warren and/or Williams extension this summer, even if Chandler and Knight are traded. Outside of an extremely team-friendly extension for Alex Len, a cheaper alternative like re-signing Alan Williams is the smarter choice.
