National Basketball Association

Who's got next? NBA insiders predict which young stars will have the most team success

Updated Dec. 1, 2023 1:40 p.m. ET

The Oklahoma City Thunder have never won a championship, made their lone NBA Finals appearance 12 years ago and have missed the playoffs three years running. But in an informal FOX Sports survey that asked more than a half-dozen GMs, executives and scouts to name their top three young stars with championship-caliber talent and support, the Thunder not only had the most popular choice — point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — but a second player — forward/center Chet Holmgren — mentioned in the top three as well.

Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic was a close second to SGA. "Shai is up there, but I don't see Luka falling off," one Western Conference GM said. "He's still the guy."

A Western Conference basketball operations director agreed. "No one controls the game, and the flow the way he does and hits tough shots the way he does," he said. "He is clutch."

But Gilgeous-Alexander was mentioned more often, and listed higher overall, than Doncic. One reason is that the survey purposefully went beyond who-is-the-best-young-player to who-is-the-best-young-player-in-the-best-situation question. One Eastern Conference executive chose Gilgeous-Alexander over Minnesota's Anthony Edwards and Doncic because of Thunder GM Sam Presti.

"Of the top three players, Shai is the only one that plays for a GM that has constructed a roster capable of making it to the Finals," he said. "OKC's roster has the highest ceiling because of other young talent and future assets. Minnesota is vulnerable in the playoffs because [Rudy] Gobert is a liability in pick-and-roll defense and can't switch. Dallas is a beneficiary of slow starts by other West contenders but they will regress to the mean. [Tim] Hardaway [Jr.] will cool off and Kyrie [Irving] will blow up."

But doubts about Doncic's game have also clearly bubbled up after the Mavericks failed to make the playoffs last year. In the annual preseason NBA.com survey of GMs two years ago, he was the top choice as the starting block for a franchise. Last year, he received more votes but finished second to Giannis Antetokounmpo in the same category. This season he was fourth, behind Nikola Jokic, rookie Victor Wembanyama and Antetokounmpo.

He still has his believers, just not as many as Gilgeous-Alexander. Three survey participants — all from the Western Conference — had Doncic first, with Gilgeous-Alexander named first on four ballots. Wembanyama was the only other player to be a No. 1 choice, via an Eastern Conference scout.

A Western Conference executive had Doncic first, Zion Williamson (if healthy) second, with Gilgeous-Alexander and Edwards tied for third. The executive gave Doncic an edge in the best-situation department because he was the only one of the four who plays in a major market.

"That makes it possibly easier to recruit free agents and play on national TV," he said.

But there were more Doncic doubters than endorsers.

"Shai is a winner and you can win a championship if he's your best player," the Eastern Conference executive said. "Luka gets you to the playoffs but there's a ceiling if he's your best player because he doesn't guard and his lack of conditioning makes him more vulnerable as the series progresses. Ant has the highest ceiling because of his elite athleticism."

A Western Conference scout also had questions about Doncic. "He scares me a bit," he said. "He's hard to play with. He's too ball-dominant. He's a great player, but can he be a winner?"

An Eastern Conference scout didn't include Doncic largely because he sees him as already having graduated from the emerging young-star category, even though he has yet to turn 25. His three: Wembanyama, Edwards and Gilgeous-Alexander. The Boston Celtics' Jayson Tatum, who is only a few months older than the 25-year-old Gilgeous-Alexander, was not a consideration by the panelists for the same reason — in their estimation, he already is who he is.

"Similar to Tatum, I kind of think we know who Doncic is at this point," the scout said. "The reason I picked my three is that they possess the requisite combination of elite talent plus the will and desire to be even that much greater. Nothing against the others, but I don't think they have quite as much of that combination. They might be missing a tiny bit on either or both as compared to the aforementioned three."

Two Western Conference scouts didn't have Doncic among their top three at all. Both had Gilgeous-Alexander, Edwards and Wembanyama as their coveted three with the only difference being one had Gilgeous-Alexander over Edwards while the other had Edwards over Gilgeous-Alexander.

"Shai is at the top, for sure," the first Western Conference scout said. "The guy is great on both ends and is No. 1 on a top team — or one that will be at some point. Edwards is a great two-way player who is just getting better. Wemby will take time but his size and skill make him a favorite."

While Edwards is considered equal or superior to Gilgeous-Alexander in pure individual talent, the current construct of the Timberwolves' roster is viewed by some as the potential stumbling block in his growth, whether it's sharing center stage with Karl-Anthony Towns or navigating around a largely one-dimensional, paint-clogging teammate in center Rudy Gobert. The Western Conference scout anticipates the Timberwolves resolving the first issue by eventually moving Towns, who is in the first year of a four-year, $222 million deal.

"Edwards will be even better without Kat when he becomes the clear No. 1," the scout said.

Whether that happens before the Timberwolves are in the market for a new point guard is the question — or whether they can get one in return. Mike Conley has had a profound effect on the Timberwolves since being acquired at the trade deadline last season, but he is 36 and a free agent this summer. Conversely, Gilgeous-Alexander has a tough, physical backcourt mate in Lu Dort, who is signed through the 2026-27 season and 2022 No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren, who, after sitting out last season with a ruptured foot tendon, is challenging Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year honors.

Indiana Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton was the only other player mentioned in more than one survey.

"It's a safe bet he will average 23 and 10 and drive a top-five offense for years," the Western Conference GM said of Haliburton.

"There are very few pure point guards left but he's done a phenomenal job of being an elite passer-slash-creator and scorer when he needs to be," a Western Conference executive said. "He plays with joy and has the respect of his teammates and peers."

When it comes to respect among the league's talent evaluators and decision-makers, though, no one has more of it than Gilgeous-Alexander right now. Not even the perennial MVP candidate a few miles down I-35 in the heart of Texas.

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds." He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.

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