Why did Hornets' Kidd-Gilchrist settle on new extension?
On Wednesday, Charlotte Hornets Michael Kidd-Gilchrist became the third first-round pick from the 2012 draft class to sign a contract extension, joining New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis and Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard. The reported particulars, four years and $52 million, are less than half Davis and Lillard's max deals and can ostensibly be viewed from two very different angles: A tad much or not nearly enough.
Space and outside shooting are beyond critical in today's game, so tossing a $13 million average annual salary at a wing who didn't even attempt one three last season is suspect. But that lacks context.
The rising salary cap combined with Kidd-Gilchrist's age (he's still 21) and established defensive impact make this contract more than fair, with the potential for it to quickly morph into one of the most team-friendly non-rookie-scale deals in the league.
Last season, the Hornets allowed 96.3 points per 100 possessions with Kidd-Gilchrist on the court and 104.1 when he didn't play. That's the equivalent of the best defense in the NBA stumbling to the bottom 10. On/off numbers aren't everything, but these are dramatic and can't be ignored. According to ESPN's Real Plus-Minus stat, Kidd-Gilchrist's DRPM (+3.63) tied Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert for 12th highest in the league. Gobert might be the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year next season.
That side of the ball is an obvious plus. But offense is a rational concern. Kidd-Gilchrist could not consistently create for himself or others in his first two seasons. He scooted his wretched shot up to league-average accuracy last season, but making 40 percent of your long twos isn't cause for celebration, especially when defenders beg you to fire away. Of equal concern was his below-average accuracy in the restricted area last year. If he can't finish near the hoop or away from it, well, that's a problem.
But all this is why age is so important when weighing Kidd-Gilchrist's value. He'll be just 26 years old when this extension expires. Versatile wing defense is so important in today's NBA. We know Kidd-Gilchrist is one of the league's most versatile defenders and he'll only get better in every single area. (He's already a tremendous rebounder for his size, hauling in 9.4 boards per 36 minutes a season ago.)
You can teach shooting — Kawhi Leonard and Chandler Parsons are two popular examples — especially to players who've already shown noticeable improvement and are more than adequate at the free-throw line. You can't teach defensive instincts, blood-thirsty passion on every possession and a tireless work ethic. You can't teach the unusual combination of athleticism, strength and length that's required to switch a Russell Westbrook-Kevin Durant screen without skipping a beat.
Offensive weaknesses aside, it's more interesting to ask why Kidd-Gilchrist locked himself into a deal that so clearly pays below his market value than whether he's worth the money, because he's definitely worth the money. Next July will be a feeding frenzy, the ultimate seller's market. Players lucky enough to partake will run into an unprecedented number of teams looking to spend an unprecedented amount of money.
It's understandable to grab more than $50 million, but there's also nothing wrong with betting on yourself, being patient and holding out for what you're worth like Jimmy Butler. Kidd-Gilchrist could've landed a max deal (or something near it) amid the chaos. Why didn't he?
A questionable health history might be why he decided to play it safe. Ankle, hamstring and foot issues forced him out of 27 games last season. In 2013, he broke his left hand driving to the basket in a play emblematic of his manic intensity. Kidd-Gilchrist probably hasn't endured his last significant injury, and the Hornets are extremely fortunate his agent, Leon Rose, lent that belief enough credence to negotiate this deal.
Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas, who signed a four-year, $64 million extension earlier this month, is also represented by Rose. Both he and Kidd-Gilchrist grabbed less money than they would have earned in restricted free agency, but both are young and talented enough to earn it back on their next deal. That must be the thinking here, but Kidd-Gilchrist is the exact type of player every team in the league should sell the farm for now. Unfortunately, for every team except Charlotte, none of them will have the opportunity.
