Why Simmons’ Nets have better title shot than Harden’s Sixers
By Ric Bucher
FOX Sports NBA Writer
Now that James Harden is where he wants to be — in Philadelphia — and Ben Simmons is where he wants to be — not in Philadelphia — I asked several NBA scouts to assess where trading places puts Harden and the 76ers vs. Simmons and the Brooklyn Nets in the race for this year’s title.
The responses explain why Nets forward Kevin Durant seemed so OK with Harden opting to force his way to the 76ers. General consensus: The 76ers improved, but not enough to contend. The Nets, on the other hand, if Durant, Simmons and Kyrie Irving are all available, have the potential to win it all.
"Brooklyn is in good shape," said a scout of an Eastern Conference team currently holding a playoff spot. "We like our team, but I would not want to face a Brooklyn Nets team that has KD, Kyrie and Ben Simmons on the floor. That would be a very hard team to beat. We’ll see if it ever happens. But it could."
Can Ben Simmons sync with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving?
It also could not, of course. Durant is currently out with a sprained knee, and reports are that he is weeks away from returning. Simmons has not played all season; in his first news conference since last season, he attributed his holdout to mental-health issues rather than dissatisfaction with the Sixers, raising questions about how being traded will impact his readiness to play.
Irving, by refusing to get vaccinated for COVID-19, remains unable to play games in New York because of a local mandate. While both New York mayor Eric Adams and NBA commissioner Adam Silver recently acknowledged an inherent unfairness in the fact that Irving is unable to play in New York while unvaccinated visiting players can, there have been no indications as to if or when the mandate might be rescinded.
While the questions for the Nets are large and plentiful, the belief that the trade — Harden and Paul Millsap for Simmons, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and two future first-round picks — favored Brooklyn was unanimous.
"I like the trade for Brooklyn much better than Philly," a Western Conference scout said. "Simmons is a better fit in Brooklyn than Harden. He does more of the things they need."
No. 1 on the list of needs is defense: The Nets are currently 19th in defensive rating. No. 2 is rebounding: Brooklyn is 14th in rebounds per game and 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage. Simmons prefers being a distributor and playmaker over shooting from anywhere beyond four feet from the basket. That fits well with Brooklyn’s array of shooters, as Durant, Irving, Patty Mills and Curry all shoot 37% or better from long range.
"This is the best possible thing for Ben," the Eastern Conference scout said. "He will just dribble the ball up, pass, defend and finish at the basket when the floor is spaced around him. I think he can play the 5 a fair amount with four shooters around him.
"If they get everybody on the floor, I see Ben getting a lot of triple-doubles, where he has 11 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists. He hates to shoot anything other than layups, and on that team, he won’t have to. He hates to have to make the big shot in the big moment, and he won’t have to. KD and Kyrie will take every big shot in every big moment."
While a second Eastern Conference scout also thought the deal favored the Nets, he was less enthused about the chances of it making either team a title contender.
"They have two players who have actually won championships," he said, referring to Brooklyn's Durant and Irving. "No one else in the East outside of Toronto and Milwaukee can really say that. If Kyrie becomes a full-time player, it helps. But I’m not as worried with the Nets’ top three as with four through 10 for them to be contenders. They’re pretty weak, in my opinion."
Broussard: "The Nets aren't winning a championship this year"
That has been reflected in how much the Nets have struggled since Durant sprained his knee and Harden’s motivation waned before the trade. They’ve gone 4-13 without Durant and slid from second in the Eastern Conference to eighth. Their lack of depth is also reflected in the uncertainty about what their finishing lineup might be, even with Durant, Simmons and Irving available.
Putting Irving, Curry and Mills on the floor together would mean trying to defend with three guards 6-foot-2 or shorter. Power forward-center LaMarcus Aldridge is an option, but he’s 36 and averaging fewer than 23 minutes per game — and playing him would force Simmons or KD to defend a perimeter player.
"If Seth Curry or Patty Mills is your fourth guy, who is your fifth?" the Eastern Conference scout asked. "Do you go with Curry and Mills, who are probably not great to play together? Do you play Drummond, who probably isn’t good enough? Who is that fifth guy? They may just play Mills and Curry together and say [forget] defense. Simmons will do all the defense, and we’ll just be good on offense."
While the Sixers are in a much better position going into the All-Star break — third in the East — they got there with center Joel Embiid as their primary offensive hub. His usage rate, 37.7, leads the league. The next highest Sixer in that category is Tobias Harris (55th at 23.2).
Harden ranks 20th (27.5), and reportedly his reduced involvement in Brooklyn was one of the factors that prompted his desire to leave. In his three full seasons in Houston prior to joining the Nets, his usage never dipped below 36%, and he led the league in back-to-back years.
With Simmons out of the picture, the 76ers asked second-year guard Tyrese Maxey to run the point, and he has doubled his production across the board from his rookie year. Can he maintain that if he’s off the ball?
"Maxey being off the ball will be an adjustment," a second Eastern Conference scout said. "They have worked with him to learn to be on the ball. There’s going to be lots of pressure on him now to guard the other team’s best guard and make catch-and-shoot shots."
Harden has played with an array of co-stars — Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, Durant and Irving — and done fairly well, but he was always the primary ball handler, and he has never played with a post player as dominant as Embiid.
There’s also the question of Harden’s contract status. Although he has vowed to opt in to the final year of his current deal, he currently could be a free agent this summer, presumably looking to prove he deserves a long-term, maximum-salary extension.
How will that impact his willingness to play a potentially lesser role next to Embiid?
"I’d say the Sixers’ Achilles' heel is whether Harden is in shape and trying and willing to adapt to an offense centered on Embiid," the first Eastern Conference scout said. "Whether he’s willing to shoot off the catch whenever Embiid kicks it out or he’s going to bounce it, catch it, hold it and turn it into an ISO when it should just be an open 3. I think Harden will be on his best behavior initially, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he has a hard time fitting into Embiid’s team."
The Western Conference scout was more blunt.
"I feel Embiid will hate playing with Harden," he said. "Harden dribbles 50 times and then shoots, and that is not what Embiid will like."
The flip side, of course, is that Harden indicated he will be ready to go after the All-Star break, giving the Sixers the rest of the season to figure out how he and Embiid can coexist. With all the uncertainty surrounding Durant, Simmons and Irving, there’s no telling how many regular-season games they will play together — and where the team will be in the standings when they finally do.
As far as where the 76ers and Nets stack up with all the other Eastern Conference contenders, the scouts agreed that the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks are the favorites to return to the Finals. They see the Sixers being a tough out but ultimately falling short of the conference finals, with the Heat and Bucks both capable of beating them; one scout even mentioned the Raptors as a threat.
The Nets are the wild card, with the potential to make an early exit but also the best chance of beating the Bucks. Simmons is a big part of that, giving them a defender with the size and agility to match up with Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
"Brooklyn could lose in the play-in or the first round if they don’t get all their guys on the floor," the first Eastern Conference scout said. "But let’s say there is a 10 percent chance that KD is healthy, Simmons is healthy, and they get the vaccine mandate thing lifted and Kyrie can play. Within that 10 percent, Brooklyn has a chance to win it all.
"If everything breaks right for them."
Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," the story of NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds," the story of NBA center Yao Ming. He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.
