Why trading Russell Westbrook is the Thunder's best move
Nov 5, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) watches his team play against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the fourth quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Russell Westbrook to date is the hands-down MVP of the season, so trading him now will pay huge dividends long term for the Thunder.
The NBA and the NBPA have reached an accord over the terms of the new CBA, which comes with a new Veteran Player Designation Rule. This rule allows teams to offer even more lucrative contracts to two “franchise players.” This, of course, is a day late and a dollar short for the Oklahoma City Thunder, but it begs the question: is it time for Sam Presti to fully close the door on the first chapter of Oklahoma City Thunder history?
Nov 20, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) reacts after a play against the Indiana Pacers during the second quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Is it time for a full rebuild? Is it time to trade Westbrook? Relax. This is almost certainly never, EVER, going to happen considering that Russ just got inducted into the Oklahoma Hall of Fame and is a beloved member of the community. But most importantly: it is nearly impossible to get equal value in return for a top 5 player in the NBA.
Before Gerald Bravlosky and the Troll Army bombard me with classics like “Kill yourself, bruh, you’re stupid,” I DON’T ACTUALLY THINK THIS WOULD EVER HAPPEN. But maybe Sam Presti (at no fault of his own) and the Thunder should allow the CBA to work for them for the first time in their short history.
Give me a few minutes of your time, because there are multiple reasons why trading Westbrook now will only serve to benefit the Thunder well into the future.
June 4, 2012; San Antonio, TX, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) and guards Russell Westbrook (center) and James Harden (13) react against the San Antonio Spurs during the second half in game five of the Western Conference finals of the 2012 NBA playoffs at the AT
Where the Thunder stand right now
As of right now the Thunder are sitting at 18-12, good for the sixth seed in a loaded Western Conference. Considering the Thunder lost the second best player in the NBA, I’d say that’s pretty darn good.
However, if you look a little deeper, 12 of those 18 wins come against teams with losing records. Against teams that are .500 or better, the Thunder are 6-7. That isn’t terrible, but it isn’t necessarily a sign of postseason success.
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Unfortunately Oklahoma City has never been a free agent destination, even with the loaded core that once was. Yes, the Thunder didn’t have the luxury of having cap space to bring someone in, but vets tend to title chase at the end of their career. Just not to OKC.
The previous CBA had just imposed harsh luxury tax penalties and the new Rose Rule allowed players coming off their rookie deals to earn a larger percentage of the team’s salary cap provided they hit certain benchmarks over the course of their first four NBA years. OKC is a small market team, and their inability to pay the stiff luxury tax penalties forced them to move Harden to the Houston Rockets.
Poor timing with the new TV deal and the massive leap in the salary cap was announced somewhat less than a year after this move was made. Effectively forcing the Thunder to lose out on this opportunity.
In addition, with the new Player Designation rule-which enables players going into their 8th or 9th seasons with the team that drafted them to sign for 35% of the salary cap with 8% raises over the duration of the extension (provided they meet certain benchmarks)-the chances of landing blockbuster free agents is going to dwindle significantly.
As presently constructed the Thunder appear to be stuck in the quagmire of the 5-8 seed in the Western Conference: good enough to make a cameo in the playoffs every year, but not quite bad enough to draft from the lottery. Drafting from the lottery, as we know, increases the chance of landing another superstar and making the leap back into the upper echelon of legitimate perennial championship contenders.
As the 7 seed, the Thunder are almost equidistant from the number 1 seeded Golden State Warriors and the last place Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference.
Dec 21, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) dances as New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) walks away during the second half of a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Thunder defeated the Pelicans 121-110. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Why the Thunder should trade Russ
Again, I’m fully aware that 95% of you want to kill me right now. But bear with me.
When Russ is up for the lucrative player designation extension, he will be 30 years old. Russ’ biggest asset is his other-worldly athleticism; as that goes so does Russ’ overall play. OKC could be trapped like the Lakers were with the last Kobe contract.
We all know just how awe-inspiringly, amazing Russell has been this season. However his shot, which is the last thing to leave a player, is still very flawed. At this point in the season, he’s shooting 43.1% from the floor, 33.0% from deep. His eFG% (effective field goal percent) of 47% is barely in the top 100 (97th) of the NBA.
It isn’t illogical to think in four years (when he’ll be making close to 50 million a season) Westbrook may not even be able to put up All-Star numbers.
This makes finding a trade partner incredibly difficult. The team that trades for him would need to have both the assets to make the trade worthwhile for OKC, AND a legitimate shot to compete for a Finals run now.
There’s really only one team that qualifies for both. That team, of course, is the team Russell Westbrook just got done destroying: the Boston Celtics. Facts are Danny Ainge has been searching for that superstar since the demise of the Pierce-Garnett-Allen era. Witnessing Russ’ dominance last night has to have Ainge trigger-happy to go all Russian with Presti and ink Russ right now!
Sam Presti would also be operating from a position of extreme leverage, as Russell is still under team control for next season. More importantly, HE DOESN’T HAVE TO TRADE HIM. This means that Boston would have to make a godfather offer, which would look something like this:
Westbrook for Amir Johnson, Jaylen Brown, Avery Bradley, and both remaining Brooklyn picks.
Here’s why this deal makes the most sense for the Thunder. If you are an OKC fan, you may want to sit down for this one; it’s going to hurt (it pains me to write this).
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The Thunder aren’t going to make much noise, if any at all in April. Russ has been playing at a historic, MVP caliber level, but 82 games with a near 50 percent usage level is going to take it’s toll on anybody, even a super freak like Russell.
The Thunder simply don’t have the team around him to pick up the slack in a series against Golden State, San Antonio, or even Utah. Until recently, the Thunder crater by almost every metric when Russell is off the court.
There’s really no shame in not being able to keep up with the creme de la creme. Remember: the Thunder lost the second best player in the league for nothing.
With no feasible way to improve while keeping what you have now, why wallow in the second tier? Why not just admit that the Thunder have had a good run over the last decade, but it’s time to move on and rebuild? Why not take advantage of something that almost never, EVER happens?
Nov 26, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Victor Oladipo (5) shoots the ball over Detroit Pistons forward Marcus Morris (13) during the fourth quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
What the future would look like without Russ
The Celtics just happen to have the rights to two UNPROTECTED first round picks from a team that is currently 7-21. It’s like the stars have lined up for this trade to happen.
By resetting now, the Thunder will bypass the all but guaranteed Finals fight between Golden State and Cleveland for the next few years, allowing them to focus solely on the future of the franchise.
I know the logical counterpoint, and it makes sense: these draft picks aren’t sure things, and there’s an almost equal chance that the players turn out to be busts as there is they become studs. Like Jules Winnfield, played by the immortal Samuel L. Jackson, in Pulp Fiction, said ” Oh, you were finished? Allow me to retort.”
Remember what happens when Sam Presti gets top five picks? Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden. That’s what happens.
Since 2007, he’s also selected Serge Ibaka, Reggie Jackson, Eric Bledsoe, Steven Adams and Cameron Payne in the first round. His misses? Perry Jones III, Mitch McGary and Josh Huestis. That’s okay considering all were picked in the 21-30 range. Presti doesn’t miss on lottery picks, and he’d have TWO (assuming the Thunder don’t make the playoffs this season) in an absolutely loaded class.
Bottom line: when it comes to drafting, Sam Presti is as good as they come. Give Presti a minimum four high lottery selections the next two years and it doesn’t seem like much of a risk, now does it?
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Ask yourself this. Which sounds more attractive: the idea of potential greatness over a decade plus with a core of Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac (or Lonzo Ball, Jayson Tatum, Lauri Makkanen, Josh Jackson, OG Anunoby, Dennis Smith Jr, Harry Giles). Whoever Presti decides is worthy of donning a Thunder jersey will become the next generation of Thunder greats.
Or would you rather see Russ toil away in Herculean effort after Herculean effort to come up short every year?
Yes, it’s a steep price for the C’s, but if rumors are true, Ainge was willing to trade four future first round picks to the Hornets the night of the 2015 draft for what turned out to be Frank Kaminsky. The C’s need a superstar, and with absolutely no disrespect to All-Star Isaiah Thomas, Russell Westbrook is the missing piece for Boston.
Even if Russ is traded to Boston, he’s still a guy Thunder Fans can root for: he stayed, and the only reason he left is to make us better for the long haul. Seeing him compete for a Finals in Boston would be slightly painful, but it’s kind of like us winning by extension? Maybe?
Sep 23, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Victor Oladipo (5), Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) and Oklahoma City Thunder center Steven Adams (12) pose for portraits during Oklahoma City Thunder media day at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Why the Thunder Shouldn’t Make This Trade
Umm…it’s Russell freakin’ Westbrook?!?!? Seriously, that’s the only reason, and it’s enough of a reason.
Look, change sucks. And admitting defeat-especially when you’re not actually defeated- is a very hard thing to do.
Luckily for Thunder fans, this decision (which, once again is COMPLETELY HYPOTHETICAL), may be easier to make by the time Russell is eligible to be traded on February 4th. As I mentioned in my schedule review article in the preseason (shamelessly can be found here), the Thunder spend a majority of the month of January on the road, and against some stiff competition at that.
In January, the Thunder will be playing @ Milwaukee, Charlotte, Houston, Chicago, Minnesota, Sacramento, Los Angeles (Clippers), Golden State, Utah, New Orleans, Cleveland and San Antonio. The three home games for the Thunder aren’t much easier as they face the always tough Grizzlies, Denver, and Dallas. Okay, Dallas has been awful this year, but that’s one “easy” game in an entire month.
By February 4th, we should have a definitive answer of exactly who the Oklahoma City Thunder are, and what we can realistically expect from them going forward.
Okay fine this segment wasn’t really about why they should keep Russell Westbrook. There’s one more reason why it makes sense to get rid of him.
By unloading Westbrook, it offers a ton more cap flexibility for the Thunder in the future. In our hypothetical trade, Amir Johnson’s $12 million contract goes away this summer. They would have enough to bring back the low key MVP Andre Roberson and allow this core to continue growing together.
Whoever Presti drafts will be locked in on relatively minuscule rookie deals for five years. When everyone else (Jerami Grant, Cameron Payne, Domantas Sabonis) are up for their own contracts, the Thunder will have the space to bring them back. Give these players 5+ years together and they’ll know each others tendencies more than their own families.
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If the Thunder could build a championship contender around Russell Westbrook, I wouldn’t advise for a trade. But I think Sam Presti understands this. By locking Oladipo and Adams in to big extensions, it made it almost impossible to bring in a marquee free agent with Russ on the roster.
I’m not saying this is Presti’s plan, but it’s not crazy to think he’s learned from his mistakes. He realizes he can’t lose a superstar for nothing (in the off-chance Russ leaves in 2018). He saw what happened to the Lakers when Kobe broke down.
This would be an awful move for the current version of the Thunder. But imagine the year 2020.
A starting lineup of Victor Oladipo-Lonzo Ball-OG Anunoby-Domantas Sabonis-Steven Adams. A bench unit of Jerami Grant, Cameron Payne, whoever they draft in 2018 (two lottery picks!!), Alex Abrines.
My mouth is salivating just thinking about it.
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