National Football League

Ten bold predictions for NFL Draft: Hendon Hooker makes surprising leap

Updated Apr. 25, 2023 2:44 p.m. ET

The guessing games and the lies are all almost behind us. So is all the noise from the draft gurus and experts who are sure they know how the NFL Draft will unfold, even though none of them can agree on how.

Starting on Thursday night at 8 p.m., the last three months of over-hype and over-analysis will begin to seem like a foggy dream as the reality of the first round finally begins to unfold. But the mystery isn't over just yet. At least not for everyone.

Want to know some of the secrets of this year's first round? Peer into my crystal ball for 10 bold predictions that are guaranteed (not really) to come true:

1. Five quarterbacks will go in the first round, but two will slip out of the top 15

In the months before every draft, the league — and the media — fall in and out of love with the quarterbacks, and this year was no exception. At one point, around the combine, there was even a thought that four of them — Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Florida's Anthony Richardson, and Kentucky's Will Levis — could go in the top 5.

That was ridiculous of course. The truth is that entire Fab Four—plus their "fifth Beetle," Tennessee's Hendon Hooker — won't even all go in the top half of the round. Expect quarterbacks to be taken first (by Carolina) and fourth (by Indianapolis), and figure at least one will get selected by pick 12.

But after that, there will be a lull. One of them will slip into the 20s. And the fifth will likely be in danger of slipping into Day 2 before having his night salvaged when some team trades up from Day 2 to grab him with one of the last picks on Day 1.

2. Tennessee's Hendon Hooker will be selected ahead of at least one of the presumed top-four quarterbacks

He was the forgotten man for a while because of the ACL tear he suffered in November. But that was really a miscalculation by the media, because NFL scouts have always loved him. What's not to love, really? Over his two seasons for the Volunteers, after transferring from Virginia Tech, he threw for 6,080 yards, 58 touchdowns and just five interceptions.

Oh, right, there's the matter of the ACL. He's also 25 years old. But some team is going to overlook that and take him before anyone selects either Richardson, Levis, or possibly both. Keep an eye on Houston at 12. They apparently love him, according to several NFL sources (but not enough to take him at 2).

3. Running back Bijan Robinson won't get past the Philadelphia Eagles at 10

The hype of Eagles general manager Howie Roseman devaluing running backs has never really been matched by his actions. True, taking one in the top 10 is something different. But if Robinson is as good and as much of a difference-maker as so many in the NFL believe, even Roseman is going to see value there.

No. 1 RB in the draft?

Joel Klatt discusses Texas standout Bijan Robinson ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft.

The bigger question, really, is whether Robinson even gets to 10. There aren't a lot of teams in the first nine likely to take him. Maybe Atlanta at 7. More likely, though, would be a team trading up to the Bears pick at 9. It would be a big leap, but don't discount the Bucs at 19 trying to make a deal.

But if that doesn't happen and he's on the board at 10, start photoshopping him into something green.

4. Despite all the devaluing of running backs, at least two will still be taken in the first round

All the hype is directed towards Robinson, and deservedly so, but he's not the only running back with high grades from most teams. Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs is another darling of NFL scouts, with slashing moves, good hands and 4.36 speed.

He won't get out of the first round because there are a bunch of teams at the bottom of the first that are looking at running backs. That includes the Cowboys at 26, the Bills at 27 and the Bengals at 28. And if the Eagles don't get Robinson with their first first-round pick, they'd be an option at No. 30, too. One of them will take him down there.

5. The Las Vegas Raiders will trade back into the first round for a quarterback (if they don't take one at 7)

OK, sure, the Raiders signed Jimmy Garoppolo, so they're set at quarterback for the next year or two. But he's 31. And here's what Josh McDaniels said about the Raiders quarterback plans back at the combine: "The goal, eventually, is to try to have a young player here that's going to be a Raider for a long time."

A 31-year-old with injury issues doesn't meet that goal. I'm not sure the urgency is there for them to take a quarterback at 7, but I'm confident they're taking a quarterback high. Maybe they trade down from 7 and do it. But more likely I think they'll use the seventh pick of the second round (38) to move up if — perhaps when — one of the five top quarterbacks fall.

Keep an eye on the Eagles at 30 as a potential trade-down partner if that happens. They're everyone's best bet to trade down to acquire more Day 2 picks.

6. DT Jalen Carter won't get past the eighth pick. If he gets past the Lions at 6, someone will trade up for him

When Carter, who some think is the best player in this draft, had to leave the combine so he could be arrested on reckless driving charges in connection with an accident that led to two deaths, the NFL mostly shrugged. Sure, scouts and GMs took notice, but they mostly didn't really care. The general consensus was that unless a lot more than a reckless driving misdemeanor came out, nobody would pass on him in the draft for that.

Carter to the Seahawks?

David Helman and Carmen Vitali discuss whether the Seahawks will take a chance on Jalen Carter in the 2023 NFL Draft.

And they won't. He'll probably go to Seattle at 5. He could go to Detroit at 6. If he doesn't, there are several teams interested in moving to get him before the Falcons get a shot at him at 8. If he somehow gets past there, there might be some celebrating in the Eagles draft room if they see him on the board at 10.

7. Tyree Wilson will be taken before Will Anderson

This is so reminiscent of the Travon Walker-Aidan Hutchinson dynamic from a year ago. Like Hutchinson, Will Anderson was long thought to be the best defender in this draft. Scouts and teams love him. He had eye-popping production in college and everyone thinks he's a future Pro Bowler.

Yet like Walker — who went first overall last year, leaving Hutchinson for second — Tyree Wilson is starting to generate more late excitement. At 6-6, 271, he's bigger than Anderson. Scouts say he's more athletic. The general feeling is he has a bigger upside.

Maybe it's all just talk, but from what I hear the Houston Texans at 2, and possibly even the Arizona Cardinals at 3, are buying it all. They both will likely take a pass-rusher if they don't trade their picks. Both of them would choose Wilson first.

8. Of the four receivers generally thought to be the best in this class, only two will go in the first round

In every NFL Draft, wide receivers drop farther than expected. It's why so many great ones come out of the late-first or even second rounds. It's a product of the wide-open passing games dominating college football and a seemingly endless parade of speedy, elusive receivers coming out every year.

So while everyone seems to think there are at least four first-round-worthy receivers this year — Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Boston College's Zay Flowers, TCU's Quentin Johnston, and USC's Jordan Addison — only two of them will go in Round 1. And it's not just that teams will see good value in receiver later in the draft. It's also because there are other receivers that some teams love.

Klatt's top 50 players

Joel Klatt revealed his top 50 players 2.0 for the 2023 NFL Draft.

It's very possible that Tennessee's Jalin Hyatt, North Carolina's Josh Downs, or maybe both sneak ahead of two of the Big Four. The most likely to drop seem to be Johnston and Flowers, based on conversations with NFL scouts. But some of them will drop, because receivers always do.

9. After not taking a single offensive skill player (other than a QB) in the first round during Aaron Rodgers' entire career in Green Bay, the Packers will use the 13th overall pick on a WR or TE now that Rodgers is gone

It was a big thorn in the side of Rodgers that in the 18 drafts after the Packers took him 24th overall (in 2005) that they didn't use a single first-round pick on a weapon for him. They had 18 first-round picks in that span. The only offensive players they took were two tackles and Rodgers' replacement, Jordan Love.

So yeah, now that he's gone, you can bet the Packers will use what is now the 13th overall pick in the draft on an offensive skill player to help their new QB.

It could be a receiver or a tight end. It might be a little high for the two best tight ends — Notre Dame's Michael Mayer or Utah's Dalton Kincaid — but they could end up with the first or second receiver off the board. Either way, they'll get Love the kind of help Rodgers only dreamed about — and complained about not getting — for nearly 20 years.

10. Two teams will trade into the top 10. One will do it to get a QB, and one will do it to get a defensive lineman

Every year, pundits say "The top 10 has never been this unpredictable! Everybody wants to trade up … or down!" And it is, of course, not always true. It's not particularly true this year either. Most teams in the top 10 seem generally content to stay where they are.

Still, there are variables that will lead to trades. Quarterbacks are a big one, and if — more likely when — the Texans pass on a quarterback at 2, the Cardinals are going to get some offers for the third pick from teams that want to jump ahead of the quarterback-needy Colts (at 4). There are also a couple of high-value, non-quarterbacks — like DT Jalen Carter and RB Bijan Robinson — that could convince a team to move up. Some of the top tackles might be worth a move, too.

So keep an eye on the Cardinals, the Seahawks (at 5), the Raiders (at 7) and the Bears (at 9) as hot spots with teams that could be willing to trade down. And watch the Eagles (at 10), the quarterback-starved Titans (at 11), and maybe even the sneaky Patriots (at 14) as teams that might try to move up into the top 10.

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Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.