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Your NFL picks and score predictions for Week 17 are here with the 2017 playoffs lingering just around the corner.
This is it; the final week of the 2016 NFL season is upon us, which means we have a whopping 16 games left on the regular-season schedule. So here we go—Week 17.
Although the majority of the playoff field is set, there are a few teams vying for positioning this week. A couple of spots are still available in the NFC, while some seeding still needs to be sorted out in the AFC—in fact, home-field advantage is still up for grabs.
No matter how things play out, it’s going to be a wild ride. There are a handful of prime matchups between teams with a lot on the line. It should make for some excellent football as the postseason lies just a few days down the road. Either way, it’s going to be difficult to make NFL picks this week—that’s why I’m here to help.
Last week was another solid showing for me. I walked away from Monday night’s showdown with a 9-7 record, which was solid but not as great as in some of the recent weeks. That improved my record on the year to 141-96-3. It certainly wasn’t as impressive as I had my sights set on, but it definitely could have been worse.
So, without further ado, here is my final round of NFL picks and score predictions for Week 17.
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New Orleans Saints (7-8) at Atlanta Falcons (10-5)
What a Week 17 showdown to end the season. Two of the league’s best offenses square off, with one team battling for playoff positioning and one battling for pride. Thankfully for the Falcons, I see this one going in their favor.
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Realistically, Atlanta has been unstoppable in recent weeks. In their last three games, the Falcons have outscored their opponents 116-43. The offense is on a different level right now, which shouldn’t bode well for the Saints’ subpar secondary.
Now the New Orleans offense can’t overlooked, either. Drew Brees and Co. are still cruising through this season, which isn’t going to make life easy on Atlanta’s average defense. With both offenses on fire at this moment, this game could quickly turn into a shootout.
Even if that is the case, I expect the Falcons to come away victorious. They’ve got too much on the line—including a potential first-round bye—to cough this one up against a divisional foe. One thing you can count on, though, is that there will be plenty of fireworks between Atlanta and New Orleans on Sunday.
Prediction: Falcons win 45-38
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Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-9-1)
Boy, was it a disappointing year for both of these teams. The Ravens shot out of the gates, but slowed down the stretch and couldn’t come up with the clutch wins. As for the Bengals, they failed to come anywhere close to expectations this season. So who will win the season finale, of which the outcome has no impact on anything other than draft positioning? My guess is the Ravens come up with the road win.
While they failed to capitalize in the final weeks of the season, Baltimore sports a talented roster. The defense has been one of the NFL’s best in 2016, and the offense has come alive in recent weeks. If it wasn’t for a few close calls, they’d be sitting pretty atop the AFC North heading into Week 17.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have limped their way through the last month or so. They could barely muster 10 points against the Texans defense, which hasn’t fared as well as the Ravens defense has this year. How do they expect to score significant points against Baltimore’s tough D?
I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a snoozer. Neither of these teams is fighting for anything, and both are coming off deflating losses. When the dust settles, though, the Ravens will get the win.
Prediction: Ravens win 17-12
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New York Giants (10-5) at Washington Redskins (8-6-1)
These two teams are in very different situations right now. While the Giants have already locked down the No. 5 seed in the NFC, the Redskins are still fighting for a spot in the postseason. The only way to book themselves a trip to the playoffs is with a win.
With the Lions’ loss on Monday night, Washington gained control of its destiny. Beating the Giants in Week 17 would improve its record to 9-6-1, which would be better than the 9-7 the loser of the Lions-Packers game. If the Redskins lose, though, they get to enjoy an early vacation.
So here’s the question: Can Washington step up in the clutch and get the W?
I can assure you it won’t be easy against a tough Giants team. Their offense can catch fire in a hurry, and their defense has undergone immense improvement over the last couple of months. It’s going to take a monumental effort from the Redskins, even if the G-Men are already preparing mentally for the playoffs.
I think the added motivation gives Washington the boost it needs to win. Kirk Cousins will have a big day, and the defense will step up enough to edge out New York on the scoreboard.
Prediction: Redskins win 29-26
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Houston Texans (9-6) at Tennessee Titans (8-7)
This was building up to be an impact showdown for the AFC South crown. Instead, the Titans lost Marcus Mariota, lost to the Jaguars, and are now out of the playoff picture. I’m sure they’d love to stick it to the Texans before they head to the postseason, but I don’t see that happening.
Even with Tom Savage under center, the Texans are the better team. That might not be the case if Mariota was still available, but this Tennessee offense saw a significant downgrade when Matt Cassel stepped in as the signal caller. Even with the outstanding running game, this Titans offense is going to struggle against Houston’s stout defense.
You better believe it’ll be a hard-fought battle, though. As disappointing as it is that this isn’t a title fight, the Titans will be looking to steal the Texans’ thunder before the first round.
They’ll pound their defense with the duo of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. Cassel should still make a few good throws, although I wouldn’t be surprised by a couple of turnovers, too. The Tennessee defense will also make life very difficult for Savage. In the end, the Texans leave with the W. It’s not the way it should have gone, but the football gods had other plans.
Prediction: Texans win 21-20
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Carolina Panthers (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
If the Buccaneers have any hope of making the playoffs, they must win this one. They already choked away a golden opportunity in Week 16, and now face a do-or-die situation against the Panthers. Luckily, Tampa Bay is slated to take on a beatable Carolina team. It’s not like we’ve seen much quality football from the Panthers this season.
I think this one will come down to the Buccaneers offense. We know we should see a strong showing from the defense, which means it’ll be up to Jameis Winston and Mike Evans to take advantage of this suspect Carolina secondary. It shouldn’t be too hard considering its currently ranked last in the NFL against the pass.
Seeing as Cam Newton and Co. have also been struggling as of late, I can’t see Tampa Bay choking two weeks in a row. The offense should put up enough points, and the defense also has a favorable matchup—the Panthers only managed 14 points against the Falcons average defense a week ago. The Buccaneers will need a nearly impossible amount of help to clinch a playoff spot. However, it all starts with them winning this game, which I’m confident they’ll do.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 17-14
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Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) at Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
Something about this game is telling me the Jaguars will pull off the upset. I’m not entirely sure what it is, although I’m guessing their Week 16 upset of the Titans is playing a part in my process.
Under new management, Jacksonville looked like a different team last Saturday. Although players had nothing but good things to say about Gus Bradley, what we saw on the field was a rejuvenated roster. Players looked like they had something to play for, unlike in previous weeks.
More importantly, Blake Bortles looked like the breakout candidate we saw a season ago. He shredded a solid Tennessee pass defense, putting on a season-best performance despite the 2016 campaign already being a lost cause.
Especially with nothing to play for but pride, Jacksonville can overcome this average Colts team. They’re coming off a demoralizing loss to Oakland, and likely won’t want to risk players like Andrew Luck with the playoffs already out of reach. Indianapolis should put it in cruise control, giving their divisional foes an opening.
The Jaguars brass won’t appreciate the extra win and lost draft positioning, but it’s a glimmer of hope moving forward. This team has the talent to compete, and maybe a change of leadership was the needed spark.
Prediction: Jaguars win 23-16
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New England Patriots (13-2) at Miami Dolphins (10-5)
This game carries a lot of intrigue with it. The Patriots will be gunning for the top seed in the AFC, which would grant them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will be looking to potentially steal the fifth seed from the Chiefs with a win. Put simply, both of these teams will be desperate for a win on New Year’s Day.
Although I believe Miami will put up a fight, I can’t see them outscoring the Patriots—even at home. New England may be the hottest team in the NFL right now, and it’s not like the Dolphins have exactly proven themselves as capable of beating top contenders this season.
The majority of Miami’s wins have come against lackluster opponents. They’ve only played three games against teams headed for the playoffs this season, and won one of those games—against a Steelers squad led by a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger. Their first showdown with the Patriots was a loss during which New England’s third-string quarterback played most of the game.
I said it last week and I’ll say it again—the Dolphins are overrated. They’ll learn the hard way what being a true contender looks like when the postseason rolls around. For now, though, New England will give them a wake-up call in Week 17 in the form of a loss.
Prediction: Patriots win 34-20
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Chicago Bears (3-12) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
I was on the fence with this one. As bad as the Bears have been this season, the Vikings have struggled down the stretch and already got embarrassed by Chicago once this year. Could a repeat performance be on the horizon? I’m going to say no, and I have my reasons.
The first is that the Bears will likely stick with Matt Barkley as their starting quarterback in Week 17. While he’s flashed some playmaking ability in recent weeks, we’ve also seen some disastrous play from him. Just look at last week’s outing against the Redskins, when he threw for five interceptions.
I don’t necessarily think the Minnesota secondary will have that type of big day, but they should be able to make enough plays against Barkley to get the W. The Vikings offense shouldn’t help too much, but they’ve looked better in recent weeks—at least when it comes to racking up yards.
I’m guessing the Vikings find their way into the end zone at least a couple of times. This could also be Adrian Peterson’s last game in the Twin Cities (if he plays), so why not end his illustrious time in Minnesota with a win?
Prediction: Vikings win 25-16
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Buffalo Bills (7-8) at New York Jets (4-11)
Even after missing out on the playoffs, the Bills have a lot to gain in Week 17. More specifically, Rex Ryan will be hoping a divisional win and .500 finish will be enough to earn him another year at the helm.
It just so happens that shouldn’t be too tall an order for Buffalo, a team that has played well at times this season. It helps they’ll face off against the Jets, one of the NFL’s most dysfunctional teams right now.
I’d expect an offensive onslaught from the Bills, who have enjoyed an explosive season from LeSean McCoy. Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins also flashed in Week 16, and should do more of the same this week against New York. The key here, though, is the Jets inept defense, which got absolutely shredded by Tom Brady last week.
Who knows what the Jets have planned, but I’m sure it won’t be pretty. As mentioned, the defense has been a bust in 2016, while the offense has also crashed and burned. Even with Ryan Fitzpatrick back under center, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gang Green failed to put many points on the board.
This should be a lopsided game, with the Bills pulling away early. At this point, I’m sure the Jets are begging for it to be the offseason already.
Prediction: Bills win 30-10
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Dallas Cowboys (13-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-9)
The Eagles played spoiler in Week 16, but they are not going to play the same role in Week 17. Even then, it’s not like it would matter. Chances are the Cowboys will take it easy on some of their starters seeing as they’ve already sewn up the top seed in the NFC. Still, don’t think they’re going to lie down against a divisional rival—especially because they can rest during the bye week.
Dallas wants to end the regular season on a high note. While Philadelphia will be looking to topple a giant to put a positive spin on their own campaign, I don’t see Carson Wentz and Co. getting the job done. I mean, have you seen the way the Cowboys have been playing as of late?
Even if players like Dak Prescott, Dez Bryant and Ezekiel Elliott sit on Sunday, I still think the Cowboys come away with the win. Their backups will be rearing for an opportunity to shine, while the Eagles are still struggling down the home stretch. It should be an exciting showdown either way. I believe this one will be a close, low-scoring affair. In the end, though, the Cowboys find a way to improve to 14-2 whether or not their starters assist.
Prediction: Cowboys win 14-13
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Cleveland Browns (1-14) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
Cleveland may have finally won its first game of 2016, but it isn’t going to upset the Steelers in Week 17. With so much on the line for Pittsburgh, they’ll invite the Browns into Heinz Field and quickly send them packing with their 15th loss of the season.
As we saw on Sunday afternoon, the Steelers are in prime playoff shape. They took care of the Ravens in the clutch, coming up with big plays when they were most needed. Especially on the offensive end, Pittsburgh is looking like an unstoppable force right now.
Ben Roethlisberger is playing like, well, Ben Roethlisberger. Le’Veon Bell is right up there with the hottest backs in the NFL, and the defense is making just enough plays to keep things interesting. More than anything, this team is working as a whole to consistently win games.
Meanwhile, the Browns just narrowly avoided a potential 0-16 finish against the floundering Chargers. Despite San Diego’s pitiful performance, it came down to a missed field goal to put Cleveland in the win column. Although I’m sure last week’s win will have the Browns on a high, it won’t be enough. The Steelers will handle this one with little trouble.
Prediction: Steelers win 34-13
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Arizona Cardinals (6-8-1) at Los Angeles Rams (4-11)
Is there really any reason to pick the Rams in this situation? They’ve been a complete disaster in the second half of the season, and are coming off a demoralizing loss to the pitiful 49ers. To think they could overcome the Cardinals at home would be insanity.
I mention “at home” because Los Angeles has an abysmal 1-6 record at the Coliseum this year. They’ve failed to give fans much of a show, although it’s not like they’ve been a whole lot better on the road.
No matter where the game is, though, you can rest easy knowing Arizona will win. Their offense is light year’s ahead of the Rams’ and you could probably say the same about their defense (although maybe not to the same degree). On paper and on the field, the Cardinals are clearly the superior club.
Look for David Johnson to have another big game against Los Angeles’ inconsistent defense. I’d also keep an eye on the Arizona defense, which could have a whale of a game against one of the most dysfunctional offenses in the NFL.
The Rams have a lot of work to do this offseason as they attempt to give LA fans something to be positive about. What is sure to be a sad performance in Week 17 will provide further proof of that.
Prediction: Cardinals win 37-15
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Oakland Raiders (12-3) at Denver Broncos (8-7)
And just like that, all of the Raiders’ hopes and dreams for this postseason fall on Matt McGloin’s shoulders. With Derek Carr out 6-8 weeks (via ESPN’s Adam Schefter) with a fractured fibula, Oakland will hope their backup quarterback can take the baton and keep pace.
Unlike many, I’m confident he’s up to the challenge. I’ve been a proponent of McGloin’s for some time, and think this will be the perfect opportunity for him to earn himself some respect around the NFL.
Especially against Denver’s tough defense, this isn’t going to be easy. There’s a lot on the line for the Raiders, including the AFC West title. A loss and a Chiefs win against the Chargers would drop Oakland from the No. 2 seed to the No. 5 seed. Having that first-round bye would obviously be huge for this team.
It could also mean home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. A win and Patriots loss to the Dolphins would give the Raiders the No. 1 seed, meaning the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC would go through Oakland.
The Broncos are already out, but I’m sure they’d love to play spoiler. Unfortunately, based on what we’ve seen in recent weeks, I don’t think they have what it takes to do so. Even against this hit-and-miss Raiders defense, Denver will fall flat in Week 17.
Prediction: Raiders win 31-17
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Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) at San Diego Chargers (5-10)
Even with the home-field crowd at their backs, I don’t believe the Chargers will fare well in this one. As we’ve seen in recent weeks, San Diego has rightfully earned their 5-10 record. I thought they were better than it originally indicated, but I was wrong. Instead, I’m starting to get the feeling Philip Rivers’ days as an effective NFL quarterback are over.
If that is the case, I don’t see a logical scenario in which the Chargers win in Week 17. The Chiefs will be playing to at least maintain the fifth seed in the AFC, which would pit them against the Texans instead of the Steelers in the first round. Obviously that comes with its fair share of benefits. The AFC West title could also be within reach.
There will be plenty on the line for Kansas City. That’s why I’d expect another explosive showing from the Chiefs, similar to the way they dismantled the Broncos on Sunday night. Especially with the turnover-prone Rivers at the helm, expect the Kansas City secondary to feast on his erratic passing.
The offense will make its own mark on the scoreboard, but it’ll be the Chiefs’ defense that secures the W on New Year’s Day.
Prediction: Chiefs win 27-7
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Seattle Seahawks (9-5-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-13)
With the playoffs only a week away, the Seahawks can’t afford to continue dropping the ball. They look dominant one week, and then stumble against a beatable opponent the next. Luckily for them, a matchup against the miserable 49ers is an ideal opportunity to gain some momentum.
Yes, San Francisco won in Week 16. However, they narrowly edged out a Rams team that appears allergic to the end zone. There’s no denying this 49ers team is still one of the worst in the NFL, especially since both of their 2016 wins came against Los Angeles.
Between their hot-and-cold offense and exceptional defense, Seattle shouldn’t have too much trouble securing the win in Week 17. Unfortunately, after losing to the Cardinals last Saturday, it may not be enough to grant them a first-round bye. If that’s the case, they’ll at least be hoping for the third seed in the NFC.
I’d guess Russell Wilson will get going, throwing the ball with ease against San Francisco’s porous secondary. It would also be wise to get the ground game up and running, especially if the Seahawks plan on making it past the first round of the postseason.
The win should be easy for the Seahawks, but the important part here is gaining some confidence. Seattle needs to prove to itself it can dominant if it has any hope of making a deep playoff run in January.
Prediction: Seahawks win 36-20
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Green Bay Packers (9-6) at Detroit Lions (9-6)
It all comes down to this. The final game of the 2016 NFL season should be a gut-wrenching battle for the NFC North crown. The Packers go into Detroit to take on the Lions for all the marbles.
If it goes as planned, this will be an all-out war. Both teams have had very interesting paths to this point, with the Packers looking lost until a few weeks ago and the Lions running rampant through the middle of the season before a two-game losing streak. In this one, though, I think Detroit pulls it off. They haven’t won the NFC North since 1993, and they’re about overdue.
Despite their recent struggles, this Lions offense is lightning in a bottle. We’ve seen Matthew Stafford, Golden Tate and Marvin Jones eviscerate defenses on a few occasions this season. On Sunday night, they should be able to do the same to a Packers defense that has been susceptible at times in 2016.
This could be one of the best games of the year. Aaron Rodgers will try to work his magic, and Jordy Nelson should have fun against the Detroit secondary. In the final seconds, though, Matt Prater will drill a long-distance field goal to send the Lions to the postseason.
Prediction: Lions win 32-31
