National Football League

2017 NFL Draft: Sleeper Quarterbacks Who Can Crack 1st Round

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Sep 29, 2016; Lubbock, TX, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes (5) drops back to pass against the Kansas Jayhawks in the first half at Jones AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The 2017 NFL draft, like many before it already has its slate of probable 1st round quarterbacks. However, everybody knows things can change fast.

Deshone Kizer, Deshaun Watson and Brad Kaaya look like the early favorite to be taken in the top 32 come next April. Mitchy Trubisky out of North Carolina also seems like a fast riser into that conversation as well. The question is will anybody else be able to do the same? There are a number of quality talents out where but thus far scouts have kept them out of the 1st round conversation.

Who are they and what are their chances of changing that perception? Here are five names worth watching.

Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech)

Why he’s in the hunt:

Just watch Mahomes plays. It won’t take long to see the young man is a physical specimen. He’s 6’3″, and big for that size. Not just tall. He shrugs off tacklers and moves with excellent mobility, picking up yards and scoring touchdowns. His arm is plenty strong, able to overthrow coverages that were even told to stay back to prevent deep shots. Best of all he showcases good accuracy and touch on his throws. There also aren’t any off-the-field complaints to worry about.

Why he’s not there yet:

Right now Mahomes is under the same stigma many modern college quarterbacks are. He plays in a spread “gimmick” offense. The simplified, pass-heavy scheme means there will be a learning curve for him once he gets to the pros. In addition his style of play is less about precise operation and more about backyard playmaking. He relies more on his own physical gifts than the system to make plays. That won’t fly in the NFL. He’ll have to prove he can absorb a pro offense.

Oct 15, 2016; Pullman, WA, USA; Washington State Cougars quarterback Luke Falk (4) looks for the play call during a game against the UCLA Bruins during the first half at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Luke Falk (Washington State)

Why he’s in the hunt:

Ever so quietly, Falk has strung together some very impressive victories for Washington State in 2016. In a three-week span he engineered defeats of Oregon, Stanford and UCLA. Those are considered three of the best programs in the Pac-12. He has a live arm, throws with good ball placement, has enough size for the position and puts up big numbers. Winning and production are two huge keys for any quarterback going into the draft.

Why he’s not there yet:

Falk faces the same road block as most others. His tremendous numbers are inflated to a large degree by the system he plays in. Washington State is a throwing offense. Almost exclusively. It’s news if they don’t put the ball in the air at least 40 times. So is Falk really that good or is he just a beneficiary of the scheme? At the same time he has a bad tendency to hold the football, resulting in too many unnecessary hits and sacks. That speaks to a slow internal clock.

Sep 24, 2016; Tempe, AZ, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Davis Webb (7) celebrates a touchdown pass against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium. The Sun Devils won 51-41. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Davis Webb (Cal)

Why he’s in the hunt:

The crazy thing about Webb is that he’s thrown for less than four touchdowns in a game this season just once. All three of the losses Cal has suffered were despite Webb and the offense putting up at least 40 points. He’s 6’5″ with a strong right arm and can deliver the ball with timing and accuracy. Physically he’s a poster child for what NFL quarterbacks should look like. So why isn’t he getting near the love his predecessor Jared Goff did?

Why he’s not there yet:

Much of the same reasons as others. He’s playing a spread offense and that inflates the numbers. Primarily the running concern with Webb is that he’s too much of a gun slinger. For every great play he makes, there are a few boneheaded ones he delivers because of a bad decision and too much faith in his arm. Also he doesn’t seem to function well under pressure from pass rushers. These are fundamental problems that will have to be coached up.

Sep 3, 2016; Stillwater, OK, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Mason Rudolph (2) looks to pass during the game against the Southeastern Louisiana Lions at Boone Pickens Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports

Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State)

Why he’s in the hunt:

Another 6’5″ beast with decent mobility for his size. Rudolph is a classic type in that he loves to push the ball down the field with his strong arm. In fact he may be the best long passer in this class. His accuracy on deep passes is pretty impressive. He doesn’t make a ton of bad decisions with the ball, keeping his turnovers low. Unlike others he has an advanced understanding of the position, using his eyes to manipulate coverages and going through progressions.

Why he’s not there yet:

Accuracy is a persistent concern with him. At times he can appear pinpoint with great anticipation and then it all just seems to go awry. Though he’s effective throwing deep, he’s not consistent on his trajectories, leading to passes floating on him too much. The biggest worry with him though is he shows a tendency to hear “footsteps.” In others words he starts to get happy feet in the pocket even when the pressure isn’t there to cause it. He must learn to settle himself.

Oct 22, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly (10) throws a touchdown against the LSU Tigers during the first quarter of a game at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Chad Kelly (Ole Miss)

Why he’s in the hunt:

Just watch a few of his throws down the field from this season and it’s so easy to see why scouts love Kelly. He’s got a powerful arm but more than that he understands how to use it to its maximum potential. Combined with athleticism and enough mobility to make plays with his legs, he’s a tantalizing physical talent. He’s also delivered some impressive games against the best competition in college football. The potential is as high as it gets.

Why he’s not there yet:

Kelly really scares a lot of people because he’s unpredictable. Not only on the field but off it as well. He can put up four touchdowns in one half and then three interceptions in the other. His decision-making is erratic and there are concerns about maturity and attitude problems. These are not red flags that can be so easily dismissed in regards to a 1st round pick. Kelly can do everything one can physically, but his mental drawbacks are a major roadblock.

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