National Football League

2021 NFL Draft: Get ready for a quarterback bonanza

Updated Jul. 21, 2021 11:57 a.m. ET

By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist

A potentially remarkable NFL Draft is nearly upon us, coming up swiftly at the end of this month, with a series of situational peculiarities and recent developments shaping it up to be something unmissable in the present and influentially seismic – one way or another – in the future.

It all centers on a talented group of quarterbacks generating the most attention among NFL teams, and it’s already being described any number of ways. A QB frenzy, a QB bonanza, an arms race, the Super Signal-caller Sweepstakes (fine, I made the last one up ... but I kind of like it).

"There are," Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy said (apparently without a trace of irony), "a lot of good quarterbacks in this draft class."

Let’s hope he’s right. It’s going to be a big, old mess otherwise.

A mixture of timing and the ever-present reality that there simply aren’t as many quality NFL QBs as there are teams that need them means this draft could look a whole lot different than what you’re used to.

Quarterbacks are always highly prized — but perhaps never more than now. Several mock drafts have QBs being taken with every one of the first four slots on the board. That’s right: 1-2-3-4.

The consensus is that Trevor Lawrence will be the No. 1 pick, though we can never be certain of these things until they actually … OK, forget that. Lawrence is No. 1 and is headed to the Jacksonville Jaguars, something the Jags aren’t allowed to actively say but are making no attempt to hide.

In fact, the first three seem certain to be quarterbacks when you take even the most cursory glance at the tea leaves. The New York Jets didn’t trade away Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers just to be left hanging at the most important position and are widely tipped to secure BYU’s Zach Wilson at No. 2.

Likewise, the San Francisco 49ers didn’t engineer a blockbuster trade involving seven picks and two other teams in order to secure the No. 3 position just so they could grab a defensive lineman.

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"We are excited to [get] a hell of a quarterback," head coach Kyle Shanahan admitted last month while effectively putting a limit on Jimmy Garoppolo’s Bay Area future.

After that, it gets even more interesting, with the Atlanta Falcons owning the fourth pick. Countless options abound, including the Falcons selecting a quarterback to replace or learn under Matt Ryan, trading away the selection or using it to boost their roster at another position.

"We know quarterbacks are going 1-2-3," FS1’s Nick Wright said on "First Things First." "You’ve got to ask yourself at some point: How many great QBs do we think are coming out of this draft? If you go quarterback at four, you are not getting the best value for that pick. Instead, you could get literally the best player at any other position."

Yet it is easy to see why teams would be tempted to move up. In the NFL, for any team that wants to be a contender, a quarterback that is at least serviceable is a bare minimum. A good one can get you to the promised land — or at least offer some hope that such a thing is possible. A quarterback that doesn’t work out can be a financial drain that takes years to crawl out from under.

There are no guarantees.

"How often was the first quarterback off the board the one who went on to have the best career in a given draft?" Rodger Sherman of The Ringer asked. "Time and again, teams have proved more likely to pick the wrong quarterback than the right one."

In a five-year stretch from 2013 to 2017, the first quarterback picked in the draft went as follows: EJ Manuel, Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky. Sometimes none of those picked work out. Probably the best career to come from the 2013 class belongs to Geno Smith.

All this puts more focus on the small group beyond Lawrence and Wilson. Drafting a QB No. 1 who goes on to be really good is awesome. Finding the right guy with a lower pick is infinitely sweeter.

Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trey Lance round out the group of five predicted to generate the most interest. Fields will throw next week at Ohio State’s second pro day, and the 49ers have confirmed they will be in attendance. If Fields, Jones or Lance begins to drop, even teams not necessarily in the market for a QB might be tempted to try to get their guy for the medium term.

Keep an eye on the Falcons, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos and Bears for all kinds of possible permutations.

FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre has four QBs being selected in the top eight picks in his latest NFL mock draft. Meanwhile, Colin Cowherd has quarterbacks being taken with the first four picks.

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The last time there was a frenetic rush on QBs like we will probably see this year was in 1999. Tim Couch came off the board first, Donovan McNabb followed immediately, and Akili Smith rounded out the top three. Daunte Culpepper went at 11 and Cade McNown at 12. McNabb took the Eagles to a Super Bowl, and Culpepper made three Pro Bowls, but you don’t need an NFL historian to tell you that not a whole lot of resulting magic came from the rest of those picks.

And still … teams are going to keep trying.

It is going to be a wild draft, and there are a lot of unknowns. Limited information is available, just like last year. Teams have to take more of a chance. The way it is looking, there’s no shortage of organizations that will try to swing big.

It is exciting and anticipatory, just because of the inherent danger involved. Your pick could turn into Aaron Rodgers or … yeah, exactly, that guy who once thrilled your GM and whose name you can’t now remember.

If all of the teams hit, this could go down as one of the greatest QB classes of all time, maybe even one to hold a candle to the 1983 corps that featured John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly.

Are we that lucky? History tells us no, which makes the whole thing a captivating gamble yet one in which the upside is so high that teams don’t find it difficult to talk themselves into the risk.

Yes, there are a lot of good QBs in this draft class … for now.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider Newsletter. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.