National Football League

NFL 2021 team season win totals: Opening lines, six bets to make

Updated Jul. 21, 2021 11:52 a.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Ready or not, win totals for the 2021 NFL season are here!

Five months before the regular season kicks off, FOX Bet has posted win totals for all 32 teams. (Click here for the lines on AFC squads and here for the lines on NFC teams, all at FOX Bet.)

And remember: The NFL added an extra game this year, so these numbers are based on a 17-game season. It's easy to forget that, but keep it in mind.

Many factors go into creating and calibrating win totals. Bookmakers do their best to balance last year’s results with this year’s expectations. Teams that were decimated by injuries and teams that have new quarterbacks or coaches are usually the hardest to set because those things are impossible to quantify.

Perhaps the most important factor is the schedule. Sportsbooks rely on a team’s expected wins and losses more than you think.

"Strength of schedule is one of the biggest components of season win totals," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me. "Our model is determined by the average rating of opponents faced. Then we make our adjustments off that calculation.

"It’s unlikely that these totals move that much after the NFL Draft. We have a pretty good idea of what these teams are trying to do, so we’re not usually blindsided by a transaction."

Here are six season win totals that I like in the early going:

San Francisco 49ers over 10.5 wins (+125)

San Francisco is due to regress the right way. The Niners finished last in the NFC West last season after losing several key players to injuries, including Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Jimmy Garoppolo.

It’s pretty telling that FOX Bet set this win total at 10.5 when the 49ers come off a 6-10 season.

"In terms of going upward, San Francisco was one of our biggest adjustments," Blangsted-Barnor explained. "They’re expected to have the easiest schedule in the league this year. Injuries just ravaged them last season. If they can get everybody back healthy, like Nick Bosa and George Kittle and Jimmy G, they’re in a really good spot."

Dallas Cowboys over 9.5 wins (-110)

I believe in Dak Prescott. Quarterback stability is everything in the NFL, and Dallas had none of it last season with Prescott on the shelf. Prescott completely changes the dynamic of the Cowboys' offense because you have to respect his wheels and his play-action ability.

The Cowboys' defense really struggled last season, but Dan Quinn is a sharp coordinator who will work wonders. He’s one of those coaches who is an amazing coordinator but struggled as the leading man.

New England Patriots over 9.5 wins (+115)

I’ll feel a lot more confident in this if New England addresses the quarterback position. Even if Cam Newton gets another crack under center, the Patriots' defense should be good enough to drag the team to 10 wins. Coach and general manager Bill Belichick completely retooled the D, which was a major issue last season due to opt-outs and lack of depth.

"The Patriots were a polarizing team to line," JBB admitted. "There’s probably somewhat of an expectation in the trading room that New England will add a quarterback in the first round. That’s where a lot of the optimism comes from. It’s a fair number, though. I could see them doing really well with all their new additions clicking. I could also see it all crumble to pieces."

Miami Dolphins under 8.5 wins (+115)

If the Patriots rise in the AFC East, somebody has to fall. And even I’m not dumb enough to short Buffalo, so that leaves a Miami team that overachieved big-time last season in going 10-6. I respect coach Brian Flores a lot, but the Fish won’t be sneaking up on anybody in 2021.

And let’s see if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can handle the adjustments opposing defenses will make. Don’t forget, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t there anymore to bail out Tua late in games.

"There are question marks around Miami," JBB said. "They had a very good season last year, but when you’re pulling Tua out of games because you need a win, it shows the flaws. So much more has to go right for them to turn into a real contender in this league."

Chicago Bears under 7.5 wins (-143)

This might be the biggest disparity between a general manager’s office and the FOX Bet trading room. If you ask GM Ryan Pace about the Bears, he’ll probably tell you they’re a nine- or 10-win team. But the trading room clearly doesn’t believe in the Bears' offense, playcalling or quarterback room. And how in the heck is Andy Dalton a solution at quarterback?

"Chicago is a strange team," JBB said after a chuckle. "Their schedule is one of the toughest in the league. There was hype and hope around the Bears improving the quarterback position, and they went out and got Andy Dalton."

Jacksonville Jaguars over 6.5 wins (+105)

This one won’t be popular, but that’s OK. I need seven wins out of a team that won a single game in 2020. But let’s dig a little deeper. Last year’s Jacksonville team had a win total of 4.5 at almost every sportsbook. So don’t think of it as a six-win improvement; think of it as a two-win bump from the previous year’s total. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence and coach Urban Meyer certainly justify that leap, too.

"They were the worst team last year, and it wasn’t even close," Blangsted-Barnor said. "Things are looking up, as they’ll add Trevor Lawrence in a few weeks' time. That will immediately make them a much, much better team. Adding Urban Meyer to the fold certainly helps, and they’ve made some positive moves in free agency. Jacksonville also has the second-easiest schedule, per our model."

Agree? Disagree? Didn't see your team on here? Cool.

Now it’s time to put your money where your mouth is. Head on over to FOX Bet and get some skin in the game.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.