National Football League

2022 NFL Draft: Sam Howell, Breece Hall among 'mock busters'

Updated Apr. 28, 2022 2:44 p.m. ET

By Rob Rang
FOX Sports NFL Draft Analyst

They say opinions are like noses: Everyone has one. But in this business, mock drafts might be even more ubiquitous.

Here, for example, is my latest first-round mock draft, published Tuesday. And here's my colleague Jason McIntyre’s latest, posted last week.

There will certainly be more mock drafts before the actual 2022 NFL Draft kicks off Thursday, April 28. But by now, you’ve heard of all the big names. And while the order might change, the same 25 or so players are listed on virtually every mock.

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As such, the focus of this article is a different kind of prediction. Sort of like projecting the Cinderella team that will make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, we are attempting to identify prospects who might sneak into the top 32 and dramatically alter the first round.

Previous versions of this article correctly identified first-round surprises such as Rashod Bateman (Baltimore, 2021), K’Lavon Chaisson (Jacksonville, 2020), LJ Collier (Seattle, 2019), Kaleb McGary (Atlanta, 2019), Leighton Vander Esch (Dallas, 2018), Vernon Butler (Carolina, 2016), Cameron Erving (Cleveland, 2015) and Deone Bucannon (Arizona, 2014), among others.

Which prospects will turn out to be this year’s version of the Saint Peter’s Peacocks and stun the sporting world as 2022 NFL first-round picks?

Below are my favorite candidates, listed in alphabetical order.

Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State

Let’s start with a true diamond in the rough. The 6-foot-3, 243-pound Andersen is the top NFL prospect out of the Big Sky Conference in years. He was so good that the Bobcats lined up him at quarterback and running back, as well as linebacker, during his stellar college career — and we aren't talking about just a few snaps.

Andersen started 11 games at QB in 2018, serving mostly as a runner and setting the school record with 21 touchdowns in 13 games. This past season, he focused strictly on linebacker and dominated, earning the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year honors with 147 tackles, including 14 for loss and two sacks.

He then starred at the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine, turning in times in the 40-yard dash (4.42), 3-cone (6.77) and short shuttle (4.07) normally associated with wide receivers or cornerbacks. If teams received clean medical reports on Andersen, he is not going to last through the top 50 selections.

I’ll summarize my thoughts on Andersen this way: Any list of underrated prospects in this draft class that fails to include him should be revised.

Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Penn State

As I noted in previous mock drafts, the combination of need and this year’s stellar edge rusher class is likely to create a perfect storm in the first round, with the number of edge rushers selected approaching double digits. As twitchy off the edge as any of them, Ebiketie exploded for 18 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks last season — his first in Happy Valley after starring at Temple.

Although he only began playing football as a sophomore in high school, Ebiketie is drawing comparisons to Tampa Bay’s Shaquil Barrett, who signed a four-year, $68 million deal after posting a staggering 19.5 sacks in 2019. Agile, aggressive and long (34 1/8" arms), with a motor that knows no idle, Ebiketie is a whirlwind.

Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

Some might suggest that the NFL no longer values running backs, but at least one player at the position has been selected in the first round of the past seven drafts, including two selections last year (Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris and Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne). Frankly, Hall is a better runner than either of them, reminding me more of Indianapolis Colts star Jonathan Taylor.

With an ideal blend of size (5-foot-11, 217 pounds), vision, burst, balance through contact and legitimate home run speed (as evidenced by his 4.39-second 40 showing at the combine), Hall is every bit the "sure thing" that his 3,941 rushing yards and 50 touchdowns in 36 Iowa State games would suggest.

If Hall is not selected in the first round, don’t worry. Like 2020 second-round pick Taylor, he will soon prove that he should have been.

Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina

When discussing the dual-threat quarterbacks of the 2022 draft class, most focus on Liberty’s Malik Willis, Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder and Ole Miss' Matt Corral, and it should surprise no one if any or all of them are selected in the first round. But given that Howell’s passing touchdown total dropped in each of his three seasons at Chapel Hill, his selection in the first round might catch some off-guard.

Despite the dropoff, Howell's overall TD-to-INT ratio was a stellar 92-23 at UNC. And he emerged as a formidable weapon as a runner this past season, as the Tar Heels struggled to replace star runners and receivers drafted into the NFL. Howell’s 828 rushing yards and 11 scores in 2021 weren’t far off from Willis’ 878 and 13, in fact.

Howell is arguably the draft’s best deep-ball passer, and he possesses the competitiveness and leadership traits that teams value. So don’t be surprised if he sneaks into the final few selections of the first round via a club trading up with Kansas City (owners of the No. 29 and 30 selections) or Detroit nabbing him at No. 32.

Travis Jones, DT, Connecticut

The NFL might not value traditional run-stuffers (Jones’ specialty) quite as much as it used to, but his ability to drive would-be blockers deep into the backfield to disrupt quarterbacks makes him more effective in the passing game than his 8.5 career sacks (in 33 games) would suggest. Jones dominated the trenches at the Senior Bowl with his power and checked boxes at the combine with his athleticism, clocking in at 4.92 seconds after measuring in at an imposing 6-foot-4 and 327 pounds.

While the Georgia duo of Devonte Wyatt and Jordan Davis are often projected as first-round picks, the depth at defensive tackle drops off sharply after them. Viewed by many as the clear No. 3 DT in this class, Jones could move up the board if the Bulldogs bark early.

Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State

The depth at offensive tackle dries up a bit following the "big two," with Alabama’s Evan Neal and North Carolina State’s Ikem Ekwonu earning top-10 marks from every scout I speak to. The reviews are much more polarizing on prospects such as Mississippi State’s Charles Cross and Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning.

That is not the case with Lucas, a four-year starter whose agility, length and power turned heads while he held down right tackle in both Mike Leach’s pass-happy Air Raid offense and the Run ‘n' Shoot principles preferred by his replacement Nick Rolovich (as well as current WSU coach Jake Dickert).

Had Lucas played in the Big Ten or ACC, he might already be considered a first-round pick. As it stands, don’t be surprised if he sneaks into the top 32. He’s a plug-and-play right tackle joining a league desperate for them.

Quay Walker, LB, Georgia

Newsflash: The Georgia defense was absolutely loaded this past season, with middle linebacker Nakobe Dean winning the Butkus Award as the nation’s best at the position and Channing Tindall one of my favorites in this class to replace Bobby Wagner in the middle of the Seahawks' defense.

But lost a bit amid all the buzz generated by his teammates was Walker, who is not related to his Georgia teammate, Travon Walker, but looks like he could be, given his chiseled, 6-foot-4, 241-pound frame, speed (4.52) and physicality. Georgia’s stacked depth chart kept Walker mostly out of the starting lineup until the 2021 season. He leaves Athens with 17 career starts, which partly explains his somewhat pedestrian production.

Walker’s career numbers (139 tackles, including 11 for loss and five sacks) are less than what Troy Andersen registered in 2021, for example. But Walker is viewed as an ascending talent and isn’t likely to last long into the second round — if he makes it there at all.

Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State

Until recently, receivers were viewed as one of the riskiest positions to select in the first round, with more picks winding up as colossal busts than difference-makers. However, NFL teams could be emboldened by the success of last year’s rookie class, which saw Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith add immediate juice to their teams. As such, along with edge rushers and tackles, I expect receivers to dominate the 2022 first round, with at least a handful coming off the board.

This class is loaded with speedsters and features several receivers with prototypical size. Few offer a better combination of both than the 6-foot-5, 208-pound Watson, who was easily the most impressive receiver at the Senior Bowl and dominated the combine as well. Rather than gush about his workout in Indianapolis, though, it's worth reflecting on the kind of routes Watson won with in Mobile (and Fargo). The lightning quickness in the clip below shows his ability to create separation on short to intermediate throws.

He starred down the field as well, simply running by cornerbacks on vertical routes and using his height, body control, long arms (32¾") and sticky hands to catch everything in his zip code.

Watson is going to be a star.

One of the most recognized names in the industry, Rob Rang has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 20 years, with work at FOX, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others.