National Football League

2022 NFL Draft: Top 10 overrated and underrated players

Updated Apr. 28, 2022 4:20 p.m. ET

By Rob Rang
FOX Sports NFL Draft Analyst

The 2022 NFL Draft is finally here, but those on the All-Hype Train have long since left the station.

The journey for some of the most buzzed-about prospects could take a little longer than their tickets might suggest. Meanwhile, don’t be surprised if some of the less-publicized prospects in this year’s draft class are viewed more highly by scouts than by the media.

The goal of this article is not to suggest that the five players listed as "overrated" are going to be busts in the NFL. It also isn’t to necessarily suggest that the five players listed as "underrated" are going to sneak into Thursday’s first round. (I pinpointed some of those candidates in my annual Mock Busters.)

Instead, after conversing with scouts to piece together my final 2022 mock draft and Top 100 Big Board, this is a peek behind the scenes at the top 10 players in this class who might surprise with how early or late they are selected.

Players (and categories) are listed alphabetically.

OVERRATED

Amaré Barno, EDGE, Virginia Tech

In precisely 4.36 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine, the 6-foot-5, 246-pound Barno captured the attention of professional and amateur scouts across the country, demonstrating the elite speed and explosiveness that every talent evaluator is looking for in today’s speed rusher.

The problem is that Barno’s defensive-back-like speed and leaping ability (37-inch vertical and 10-foot-11 broad jump) come with a defensive back’s frame. While broad-shouldered, Barno has relatively slim hips, making it unlikely that he’ll be able to add much "good" weight and strength. He was frequently blown off the ball at Virginia Tech and wasn’t the dynamic edge rusher that his speed suggests, collecting just 5.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks while starting all 12 games last season.

Barno offers intriguing traits worthy of a gamble, but given this year’s extraordinary crop of edge rushers, teams view him as a more of a Day 3 roll of the dice than the early pick his flashy workout suggests.

Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

Of the five prospects on the "overrated" list, I’m most intrigued by Elam, as he possesses an exciting combination of size, athleticism and NFL bloodlines.

However, Elam appeared to coast on those traits (and his pedigree) last season, getting torched for big plays against the future NFL receivers playing at Alabama, Georgia and Arkansas. Further, while he boasts a prototypical frame (6-foot-1 and 191 pounds), Elam didn’t live up to his size as a tackler, too often ducking and swiping.

The switch might flip for Elam once he's earning a paycheck, but it only flashed in 2021, and that isn’t good enough to earn a first-round grade on my board. Elam checks in at 45th overall for me and a distant sixth at cornerback.

Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota

Football is a big man’s game, and I guess Faalele’s massive, 6-foot-8, 390-pound frame is so intoxicating to some that they overlook his mediocre initial quickness and consistent struggles redirecting back inside to stop counter moves. This was an issue at Minnesota, and the twitchy edge rushers Faalele faced at the Senior Bowl feasted on his sluggishness.

Some suggest moving Faalele inside at guard, but that would require having an NBA center at quarterback. There simply are not many passers who would be able to see over the top of the monstrous blocker.

Can Faalele be successful in the running game? Of course. And given how quickly quarterbacks get the ball out nowadays, a club could keep him outside and allow him to use his length to steer pass-rushers wide. But those teams are few and far between, suggesting that Faalele could still be on the board in the middle rounds after a college career in which he was often mentioned as a possible top-50 pick.

Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan

An Austrian who began his college career at tight end, Raimann certainly has the interesting backstory and upside to warrant early-round consideration. But he started a grand total of 20 games at left tackle in his college career, and with all due respect to Missouri and LSU programs on down seasons, Raimann didn’t face elite edge-rushing talent.

He has the agility NFL teams are looking for but isn’t as strong at the point of attack as his 30 repetitions on the bench press would suggest. He lacks the powerful base (and instincts) at this point to warrant the first-round buzz he has received. I see legitimate future starting potential with Raimann, but he’s a project I wouldn’t consider until well into Day 2.

Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

The first things scouts mention about Ridder are that he is a winner and has the maturity of a longtime NFL veteran. To be successful in the NFL, however, accuracy counts even more than intangibles. This is not to suggest that Ridder cannot improve his accuracy. He has tightened up his throwing motion throughout the offseason, throwing the ball with greater placement and rhythm at the Senior Bowl, combine and his pro day than he did at Cincinnati.

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Perhaps that will continue in the NFL. Too many of his passes on tape, however, were "ballpark" tosses that were close enough for his receivers to catch but limited their run-after-catch potential. I’m buying Ridder on Day 2, but the early-first-round talk is simply too rich for my taste. Ridder checks in at No. 42 overall on my Big Board.

UNDERRATED

Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State

Had Lucas started 42 consecutive games in the ACC, Big Ten or SEC and then followed with his stellar performances at the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine, he might be widely viewed as a first-round lock. Instead, as a proud resident of the state of Washington, I get labeled a "homer" for touting the 6-foot-6, 316-pounder as a plug-and-play right tackle well worth a top-50 selection.

Lucas is a bigger, burlier blocker than his Cougar predecessor, Andre Dillard, who was selected 22nd overall by Philadelphia in 2019. He also has proven his versatility, starring on the strong side in both pass-happy (Mike Leach’s Air-Raid) and run-heavy schemes (Nick Rolovich’s Run ‘N Shoot).

I am not suggesting Lucas should be drafted with the intent of moving him to left tackle — though his 4.92 40-yard dash suggests he’s athletic enough to consider it. But outside the "Big Four" offensive tackles (Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu, Charles Cross and Trevor Penning), Lucas is the surest bet of this year’s tackle class.

Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn

McCreary’s lack of size and straight-line speed apparently have many draftniks concerned, resulting in this battle-tested cornerback frequently being listed outside the top 50 selections. I did not include McCreary in my final first-round mock draft, but I ranked him 28th overall on my Big Board and would not be surprised to see him land among the top 32.

What McCreary might lack in arm length (28 7/8"), he more than makes up with awareness, agility and competitiveness. In a class full of prospects who don’t live up to their measureables, McCreary was the polar opposite in 2021, leading the SEC with 14 pass breakups.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, Maryland

While quarterbacks have borne the brunt of this year’s criticism, tight end is actually the weakest positional group in this year’s draft. One of the few prospects at the position worthy of top-100 consideration, however, is the speedy Okonkwo, who possesses the frame, acceleration and sticky hands to offer immediate impact.

Okonkwo turned heads at the combine by registering a 4.52 in the 40-yard dash (as well as a 35.5-inch vertical jump). He was just as flashy a month earlier at the East-West Shrine Bowl and throughout the 2021 season for the Terrapins, hauling in 52 passes for 447 yards and five scores. At "just" 6-foot-3 and 248 pounds, Okonkwo is not the traditional inline tight end, but few NFL teams are looking for those anymore. He offers terrific speed and agility as an "F" or move tight end and doesn’t back down from blocking duties, either.

If teams are satisfied with his medical grade (he missed the 2020 season due to myocarditis), Okonkwo could surprise as the first tight end off the board. He certainly warrants top-100 consideration.

Josh Paschal, Defensive Line, Kentucky

For years, I highlighted prospects such as Paschal in my annual "Rang’s Gang," a collection of non-first-rounders who play with the physicality, intensity and dependability to outplay their draft rankings. Paschal isn’t often listed as one of this year’s top defensive linemen, and until last season, he didn’t deserve it, topping out at 3.5 sacks (in 2017 and 2019) prior to setting a career-high this past year with five.

There is more to playing the defensive line than just sacks, however, and Paschal provides that. He used his strength, length and tenacity to notch 35.5 tackles for loss in his career, including an eye-popping 15.5 in 2021, earning second-team All-SEC accolades. Paschal, a three-year team captain, won’t generate much buzz in the scouting and draftnik community, but he’s the kind of player coaches and fans will love. Don’t be surprised if he’s getting his second contract when many of the twitchier rushers drafted ahead of him have bounced out of the NFL.

Sam Williams, EDGE, Ole Miss

Like the aforementioned McCreary, Williams somehow checks in on the underrated list despite posting eye-popping statistics a year ago. He finished second in the SEC in sacks (behind Alabama superstar Will Anderson) with 13 in as many games. Williams led the league with four forced fumbles and had 15 tackles for loss among his 57 overall stops.

Williams then proved at the combine that he’s an elite athlete whose playmaking ways are likely to continue in the NFL, clocking an eye-popping 4.46-second 40-yard dash after measuring in at 6-foot-4 and 261 pounds. At No. 31 on my Big Board, Williams is a bit rough around the edges, but he is an exceptional talent well worth first-round consideration.

One of the most recognized names in the industry, Rob Rang has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 20 years, with work at FOX, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others.