National Football League

2023 Cleveland Browns Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

Updated Aug. 30, 2023 5:35 p.m. ET

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September's presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it's time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the Cleveland Browns eclipse their win total of 9.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Browns' season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Chris "The Bear" Fallica: Browns Over 9.5 wins

I'm very high on the Browns this year. One’s opinion on them likely comes down to one question: Do you think quarterback Deshaun Watson can still play? If you still have faith, you should be all-in because this loaded roster made a huge hire on the defensive side of the ball by bringing in Jim Schwartz.

As bad as things were for them last year — losing games in unimaginable fashion to the Jets and five other one-score losses — the Browns throttled the Bengals on Halloween. The pieces are clearly there, and the schedule is very manageable, as the Browns have road games at Indianapolis, Denver, L.A. and Houston. That doesn’t include home games with Arizona and Chicago.

While the division is tough, what if Joe Burrow’s calf injury lingers or resurfaces? What if Kenny Pickett doesn’t make a leap in his second year as a starter? What if the Ravens' secondary remains a problem and Lamar Jackson misses time again?

There’s enough here not only to play the Browns to go Over the win total but also to win the division, AFC and the Super Bowl.

Pick via FOX Sports Columnist Martin Rogers: Browns Under 9.5 wins

It wouldn’t be that hard to talk yourself into a scenario where things finally click into place for the Browns. Last season’s defense was less than the sum of its parts, a beefy group fronted by Myles Garrett that just never clicked. Cleveland spent heavily on D over the offseason, and the bumper contract awarded to defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson should make a sizable difference. And, drum roll: Cleveland has a quarterback deemed worthy of the most guaranteed money in NFL history.

Yet Deshaun Watson begins the campaign under a cloud, and this time, it has to do with his level of play rather than his controversial past. Watson was dismal at the end of last season after serving an 11-game ban and hasn’t looked particularly good during training camp. The Browns have a long history of hard-luck tales to remember. Another one isn’t guaranteed, but there are concerning signs.

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

3-10 (Over-Under) since 2010
Have hit the Under win total 77% of the time since 2010, tied for the highest of any team in that span
Since winning 10 games in 2007, have only won 10 or more games one other time (2020- won 11)

2022 In Review

Overall: 7-10, fourth in AFC North
Home record: 4-4
Road record: 3-6
Divisional record: 3-3
Point differential: -20 (T-18th in NFL)
Points per game: 21.2 (18th in NFL)
Yards per game: 349.1 (14th in NFL)
Opponent points per game: 22.4 (20th in NFL)
Opponent yards per game: 331.2 (14th)

What to Know

Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski, fourth season (26-24 with Browns)
2023 Strength of Schedule: .460 (seventh-easiest in NFL)

Key Additions

TE Jordan Akins (Houston Texans)
S Juan Thornhill (Kansas City Chiefs)
WR Elijah Moore (New York Jets)
EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Houston Texans)
DT Shelby Harris (Seattle Seahawks)
DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Minnesota Vikings)
EDGE Za'Darius Smith (Minnesota Vikings)

Key Subtractions

RB Kareem Hunt
S Ronnie Harrison (Indianapolis Colts)
LB Deion Jones (Carolina Panthers)
S John Johnson (Los Angeles Rams)
EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (Baltimore Ravens)
TE Jesse James (New Orleans Saints)

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

2022: 7
2021: 8
2020: 11
2019: 6
2018: 7

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.