National Football League

2023 Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

Updated Aug. 31, 2023 11:51 a.m. ET

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September's presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it's time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the Kansas City Chiefs eclipse their win total of 11.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Chiefs' season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports Insider Martin Rogers: Chiefs Over 11.5 wins

Kansas City has never won fewer than 12 games during the Patrick Mahomes era and there is no obvious reason to think that the reigning Super Bowl champion, coming off a 14-win campaign and a second title, will end that streak now.

Offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. left for Cincinnati, but Jawaan Taylor was brought in — at high expense — to keep the front stocked. At this point, it is hard to know what would send this offensive out of step.

Travis Kelce defies the tight end position’s age-decline laws, and if Mahomes could put together an MVP campaign on a bum ankle and win a ring having lost Tyreek Hill, and without a standout receiver, that’s an ominous sign for everyone looking to dethrone them.

There is one big looming issue on the other side of the ball. Defensive tackle Chris Jones is holding out for a big payday, and there remains some doubt whether he will even start Week 1.

Regardless of how that plays out, I still like them to get to 12 wins.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz: Chiefs Over 11.5 wins

The Chiefs have won at least 12 games in five straight seasons, and why would this season be any different?

Kansas City has the MVP back at quarterback, and the offensive line looks to be the best they’ve had in this run of winning seasons. While there’s no superstar at receiver, the Chiefs might have the deepest WR room since coach Andy Reid got to town.

I have questions about the Chiefs' pass rush, but their linebackers and secondary are legit. Yes, the team has a tough schedule, but they always do. I’d take the Chiefs go Over.

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

10-3 (Over-Under) since 2010
Trying to be first team to win consecutive Super Bowls since the New England Patriots after the 2002-03 seasons

2022 In Review

Overall: 14-3, first in AFC West
Home record: 7-1
Road record: 7-2
Divisional record: 6-0
Point differential: +127 (fourth in NFL)
Points per game: 26.1 (seventh in NFL)
Yards per game: 360.5 (eighth in NFL)
Opponent points per game:21.7 (16th in NFL)
Opponent yards per game: 328.2 (11th in NFL)

Can Chargers or Broncos challenge Chiefs for AFC West crown?

Let's dive into the fun!

What to Know

Head Coach: Andy Reid, 11th season (117-45 with Chiefs)
2023 Strength of Schedule: .512 (17th-easiest in NFL)

Key Additions

Key Subtractions

Is Patrick Mahomes the NFL's Michael Jordan?

Nick Wright explains why the Kansas City Chiefs resemble the 1990s Michael Jordan-Chicago Bulls.

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

2022: 14
2021: 12
2020: 14
2019: 12
2018: 12

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.