National Football League

2023 Minnesota Vikings Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

Updated Aug. 30, 2023 11:58 a.m. ET

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September's presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it's time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the Minnesota Vikings eclipse their win total of 8.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Vikings' season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Chris "The Bear" Fallica: Vikings Over 8.5 wins

Yes, the Vikings were super lucky last year, going 11-0 in one-score games. Yes, the pass defense was atrocious. But I think it's way too easy to say the bottom will fall out in what could be Kirk Cousins’ final season in Minnesota. Brian Flores will have a major impact on the defense, as will some of the personnel changes there, and any offense with Justin Jefferson and rookie Jordan Addison will be just fine.

It seems like everyone is trying too hard not to pick the Vikings to repeat as division champs ("The Packers will be better with Jordan Love … The Lions are ready to break through… Justin Fields will make the leap"). Those are everyone’s narratives. Heck, the Packers are everyone's sleeper team, so much so that they aren’t just a sleeper but possibly far too trendy of a pick.

Sure, the schedule outside the division is no treat (at Eagles, Chargers, 49ers, Chiefs, at Bengals), but if they can go 4-2 in the division and beat Tampa, Carolina and Las Vegas, that puts you right in the mix of getting to nine wins. I like them to get there.

Pick via FOX Sports NFC North Writer Carmen Vitali: Vikings Over 8.5 wins

Thanks to Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson and the trust quarterback Kirk Cousins has in him, I don’t see this offense taking much of a step back from their 13-4 division-winning season last year. The Vikings also got a huge upgrade at defensive coordinator, bringing in Brian Flores and his aggressive hybrid 3-4 defense. However, I’m not sure how well players can execute it in their first year because of its versatility and intricacy.

Flores laid a great foundation in Miami in his first season, but it still wasn’t all the way there. That said, in Year 2, his defense took a huge step forward, and that might be the case in Minnesota, so I don’t want to count on the Vikings winning the NFC North crown again. But I do think that the offense alone is enough to get them to nine wins.

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

6-7 (Over-Under) since 2010
In the last eight seasons, have only won nine or more games four times

2022 In Review

Overall: 13-4, first in NFC North
Home record: 8-1
Road record: 5-3
Divisional record: 4-2
Point differential: -3 (15th in NFL)
Notable streaks: 11-0 in one-score games during the 2022 regular season (NFL record)
Points per game: 24.9 (eighth in NFL)
Yards per game: 361.5 (seventh in NFL)
Opponent points per game: 25.1 (T-28th in NFL)
Opponent yards per game: 388.7 (31st)

Will Lions or Packers snag the NFC North title?

Nick Wright and Chris Broussard reveal their NFC North predictions.

What to Know

Head Coach: Kevin O'Connell, second season (13-4 with Vikings)
2023 Strength of Schedule: .497 (T-14th-easiest in NFL)

Key Additions

WR Jordan Addison (first-round pick, 23rd overall from USC)
OLB Marcus Davenport (New Orleans Saints)
CB Byron Murphy Jr (Arizona Cardinals)
CB Joejuan Williams (New England Patriots)

Key Subtractions

RB Dalvin Cook (New York Jets)
LB Eric Kendricks (Los Angeles Chargers)
WR Adam Thielen (Carolina Panthers)
TE Irv Smith Jr (Minnesota Vikings)
DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Cleveland Browns)
EDGE Za'Darius Smith (Cleveland Browns)
CB Patrick Peterson (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

2022: 13
2021: 8
2020: 7
2019: 10
2018: 8

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.