National Football League

2023 New England Patriots Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

Updated Aug. 29, 2023 5:45 p.m. ET

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September's presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it's time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the New England Patriots eclipse their win total of 7.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Patriots' season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich: Patriots Under 7.5 wins

How many games will New England win in the suddenly loaded AFC East? You can kiss the Over goodbye if you answer with less than two.

Buffalo, Miami and New York all have better rosters, and I wonder how low this already-low total would be if Bill Belichick wasn’t roaming the sidelines. He’s the one coach across the four major professional sports who seems to circumvent his team’s talent.

Quarterback Mac Jones should be better with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, but the lack of playmakers on this roster is glaring. Oh, and the Patriots are only favored three times this upcoming season.

Pick via FOX Sports AFC East Reporters Henry McKenna: Patriots Under 7.5 wins

It’s tough to go against a coach like Bill Belichick, but the offense likely has problems that Bill O’Brien, the new offensive coordinator, can’t fix. The offensive line isn’t as good as it needs to be if the team wants to be run-first and defense focused. The defense is also taking a fairly large gamble with their rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez likely to be CB1. New England also didn’t replace safety Devin McCourty after he retired.

There are enough questions about the construction of this roster to bet them to go under the number here.

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

9-2-2 (Over-Under-Push) since 2010
The Patriots have gone over the win-total number 69% of the time since 2010, tied for the second-highest of any team in that span
New England has only won fewer than eight games one time since 2000 (2020 season - seven games)

2022 In Review

Overall: 8-9, 3rd in AFC East
Home record: 4-4
Road record: 4-5
Divisional record: 3-3
Point differential: +17 (10th in NFL)
Points per game: 21.4 (17th in NFL)
Yards per game: 314.6 (26th in NFL)
Opponent points per game: 20.4 (T-10th in NFL)
Opposing yards per game: 322 (18th)

Jets vs. Bills highlight Nick Wright, Chris Broussard's AFC East predictions

What to Know

Head Coach: Bill Belichick, 24th season (262-108 with Patriots)
2023 Strength of Schedule: .549 (T-3rd-hardest in NFL)

Key Additions

Key Subtractions

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

2022: 8
2021: 10
2020: 7
2019: 12
2018: 11

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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