National Football League

2023 NFL Mock Draft: QBs take top five spots of first round

Updated May. 3, 2022 12:45 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The 2022 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror, and that, of course, means it’s time to look to next April and the 2023 Draft.

Obviously, projecting a draft one year in advance is a fool’s errand, but a year ago, I did this exercise for the 2022 Draft, and I got four of the top 10 correct and hit on 10 of 32 first-rounders.

The toughest position to project — by far — is QB. The lone QB taken in the 2022 first round (Kenny Pickett) wasn’t on anyone’s radar a year ago. The 2023 QB class is expected to be much stronger — heard that one before? — so much so that I have five at the top.

The draft order is taken from 2023 Super Bowl odds at FOX Bet.

1. Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Unless Davis Mills is absurdly good, the Texans will be trying to draft a franchise QB, and the 6-foot-3 Stroud is the clubhouse leader after a monster 2021 season (4,435 yards, 44 TDs).

2. Atlanta Falcons: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

The Penn State transfer had a very good year for the Wildcats (8.0 YPA, 24 TDs) in the SEC and has a quick release. If you’re looking for a sneaky QB pick to go first, this is your guy.

3. Detroit Lions: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Young might win a second Heisman Trophy, will make a star of Ja’Corey Brooks or JoJoe Earle (or both!) and will stir passionate debate about his pro prospects, given that he’s barely 6 feet tall.

4. Carolina Panthers: D.J. Uiagalelei, QB, Clemson

This highly rated QB struggled last season on a bad Clemson team, but the tools are all there for the 6-foot-4, 240-pounder to be one of the best pro prospects, in the Daunte Culpepper mold.

5. New York Giants: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

He has a total of only 77 career dropbacks with the Gators, but he’s an electrifying, dual-threat talent, and at 6-foot-4, 235 pounds, he’s finally going to get his turn in Gainesville.

6. New York Jets: Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

If (when?) the QBs fall, Anderson could be in contention to go first overall if he has another year like 2021, when he led the country in sacks (17.5) and tackles for loss (33.5) as a sophomore.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Playing alongside two top-20 picks in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Smith-Njigba still put up 1,606 yards receiving and nine TDs in 2021, including setting all the Rose Bowl records (15-347-3).

8. Seattle Seahawks: Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami

After Van Dyke threw for 2,931 yards and 25 TDs last year, can he make the leap that QBs such as JT Daniels and Spencer Rattler couldn’t last season?

9. Pittsburgh Steelers: Peter Skoronski, LT, Northwestern

Honored as the best left tackle in the Big Ten, he’ll be a potential building block on a bad Steelers offensive line.

10. Chicago Bears: Jordan Addison, WR, Pittsburgh

The Biletnikoff Award winner had 38 catches of 15-plus yards and caught 12 of his 17 touchdowns in the slot from Kenny Pickett. But he might transfer to USC.

11. Washington Commanders: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

At 6-foot-4, 250 pounds, Mayer's testing profile is expected to go through the roof, and he could be the third tight end to go in the top 10 in the past four years.

12. Las Vegas Raiders: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

All three starters on Georgia’s 2021 defensive line were drafted in the top 50, and that means Carter ascends to a starting role and, likely, an All-American nod.

13. Minnesota Vikings: Paris Johnson Jr., LT, Ohio State

Tagged as a future star for a few years now, Johnson will finally get the opportunity to play tackle, which is what he’ll do in the NFL.

14. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans Saints): Malachi Moore, DB, Alabama

A two-year starter in the Alabama secondary, Moore is in the mold of former Tide playmakers Patrick Surtain, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Marlon Humphrey.

15. Miami Dolphins: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

Ringo made a name for himself with the pick-six in the national title game, flashing the 4.35 speed that teams covet, in addition to his coverage ability.

16. New England Patriots: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

The twitch and the bend are there, but Smith will have to add some weight to his 6-foot-3, 235-pound frame to jump into the top 10.

17. Philadelphia Eagles: Will McDonald, EDGE, Iowa State

McDonald mysteriously passed on entering the 2022 Draft, but he’s a tremendous athlete who was a star basketball and track athlete in high school and picked up football late.

18. Tennessee Titans: BJ Ojulari, EDGE, LSU

This is the younger brother of Azeez Ojulari, a 2021 pick by the Giants. BJ had seven sacks and 11.5 TFLs in 2021 and projects as one of the best pass-rushers in the SEC for 2022.

19. Indianapolis Colts: Phil Jurkovec, QB, Boston College

Jurkovec spent two seasons at Notre Dame before leaving for Chestnut Hill. The 6-foot-5 QB is ready to make the leap after missing half of last season due to a hand injury.

20. Arizona Cardinals: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame

The 6-foot-5 star is on pace to be the leading sack man in Notre Dame history, notching 11 last season and sitting only nine behind Justin Tuck’s record of 24.5.

21. Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns): Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

Johnston has modest stats — eight TDs, 55 catches in two seasons — but at 6-foot-4, he has burner speed, and if he runs a sub-4.4 40, he’ll find himself squarely in the first round.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama

A top-20 recruit in the 2020 high school class, Ricks started at LSU and was a third-team All-American as a freshman before transferring to Alabama.

23. Cincinnati Bengals: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

The all-purpose back had 1,422 yards from scrimmage and 15 TDs last season, and even though I rarely advocate taking a running back in the first round, he’s worth it.

24. Los Angeles Chargers: Arik Gilbert, TE, Georgia

This former LSU star is now in a loaded Bulldogs' tight end room, with future first-rounder Brock Bowers and potential draft pick Darnell Washington. The 6-foot-5 Gilbert is too talented to keep off the field.

25. Dallas Cowboys: Brenton Cox, EDGE, Florida

Cox started at Georgia, transferred to Florida and has tormented SEC QBs to the tune of 24.5 sacks in 25 games.

26. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos): Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon

Linebackers are mostly dropping to the second round, but Sewell — brother of former Oregon star Penei — will be in the mix to win the Butkus Award. At 6-foot-3, 251 pounds, he is a force.

27. Miami Dolphins (via San Francisco 49ers): Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina

The 5-foot-10 burner put up huge stats with QB Sam Howell last season (1,335 yards, eight TDs), and if he can run a 4.40 40, he’ll put his name in the hat for the first round.

28. Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams): Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan

At 6-foot-3, he’s probably going to a run a 4.4 or better, and that kind of speed and size usually mean first round, even with his modest stats (620 yards receiving, three TDs).

29. Green Bay Packers: Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU

The Tigers' QB situation has been a disaster, but Boutte has still delivered to the tune of 14 TDs in his first two seasons, and he’s also a 4.37 burner in the 40.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Khari Coleman, EDGE, Ole Miss

Injuries derailed him last season at TCU, and now he transfers to the SEC. He’ll try to duplicate his awesome 2020 campaign, in which he led all freshmen in America with 15 TFLs.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

The 6-foot-4, 275-pound pass-rusher has 12 sacks and 25 tackles for loss in two seasons.

32. Buffalo Bills: Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma

The Sooners had a ton of departures after Lincoln Riley left, but Mims stuck around, and he’ll be WR1 in Norman after catching 14 TDs in his first two seasons.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.