National Football League

2023 NFL MVP odds: Is now a good time to bet on Justin Herbert to win MVP?

Updated Nov. 7, 2023 3:36 p.m. ET

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Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

With the 2023 NFL schedule no longer a secret, the itch to bet America’s favorite sport is ready for a scratch.

I’m not the type of person who’s looking to fire a mid-May bet on the season opener between the Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, O/U 53.5) and Detroit Lions. If anything, I’ll patiently wait and let the public drive up the total over the number the next few months so I can bet the "Under" right around kickoff.

However, I did pop three future bets after the NFL Draft, and there’s another one that’s been on my mind for a few weeks – Justin Herbert for NFL MVP.

The Los Angeles Chargers quarterback is already getting a ton of respect from bookmakers around the country. FOX Bet and FanDuel Sportsbook are both dealing Herbert at +900 ($100 wins $900), just one rung below Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. Those three superstars are all listed at +700.

For extra context, Herbert has shorter MVP odds than Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence and Dak Prescott. 

Hmmm.

2023 NFL MVP ODDS AT FOX BET*

Patrick Mahomes: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Joe Burrow: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Josh Allen: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Justin Herbert: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Jalen Hurts: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Lamar Jackson: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Aaron Rodgers: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Trevor Lawrence: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Dak Prescott: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Tua Tagovailoa: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
*odds as of 5/12/2023

Giants vs. Eagles on Christmas Day, 49ers vs. Eagles in week 13 announced ahead of NFL schedule release

Kevin Burkhardt and Erin Andrews announced two big matchups for FOX NFL this season.

"There aren’t many quarterbacks that have more weapons across the board than Herbert," one professional bettor told FOX Sports. "Austin Ekeler is one of the best pass catchers out of the backfield, and receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are dangerous when healthy. And they drafted that rookie who was a monster at TCU.

"Herbert may not have an elite receiver, but he’s got three real good ones."

That third receiver is rookie Quentin Johnston, an imposing wideout with size, speed and tons of skill. He measures 6’4" and a biscuit short of 210 pounds with the ability to run vertical routes with the best of ‘em.

Last year at TCU, Johnston caught 60 passes for 1,069 yards.

Los Angeles also hired Kellen Moore to run its offense, another sign that Herbert should have even more opportunities to stretch the field. Explosive plays were Moore’s calling card in Dallas, as the Cowboys averaged almost 30 points per game over the last four seasons.

Herbert and Moore could be a downright lethal combination, and it’s tough to envision the 25-year-old Herbert throwing the ball a whole lot less than he did last season when he attempted 699 passes.

699.

Another angle working in Herbert’s favor is the loaded AFC West. 

You already know Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will score points and carry tempo, and odds are good that Russell Wilson will have a much better season with Sean Payton captaining the Denver Broncos offense. Even the Las Vegas Raiders with Jimmy Garoppolo could have a sneaky efficient attack.

If that division lives up to its offensive potential, we’re talking about shootout after shootout after shootout. And that bodes well for the quarterbacks.

Two years ago, Herbert threw for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns with conservative play caller Joe Lombardi running the show.

Now he has even more weaponry heading into 2023 – not to mention two first-round picks on the offensive line – and it’s very possible that he takes another step forward with Moore scheming things up.

Let's start the Justin Herbert for MVP campaign now. 

PICK: Justin Herbert to win MVP (+900 at FOX Bet)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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Sam Panayotovich