National Football League

2023 NFL odds: Best bets for Cowboys-Bills, UCLA-Boise State

Updated Dec. 15, 2023 11:31 p.m. ET

How about that sweat on the Army-Navy 1Q Under? It went all the way down to the wire, but we got there with a 0-0 score after 15 minutes. And then Army scored on the second play of the second quarter.

Whew.

I’ve got two college football bets and two NFL plays this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work.

UCLA Bruins (-5.5, O/U 48) vs. Boise State Broncos

Ah, the Starco Brands LA Bowl. One of my favorites.

We know it’s very likely Boise State will start true freshman QB3 CJ Tiller after Taylen Green’s transfer and Maddux Madsen’s injury. Not only is Tiller a true freshman, he’s never played a snap of college football.

Meanwhile, it’s sounding more and more like starting quarterback Ethan Garbers will be good to go for UCLA. He took a hit a few weeks back against Cal, but Chip Kelly expects his No. 1 guy to be ready.

Aside from the obvious edge in terms of quarterback experience, I believe in UCLA’s defense, and it’s no secret the Bruins were tested more in the regular season against a very formidable Pac-12 conference.

PICK: UCLA (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points

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North Dakota State Bison at Montana Grizzlies (-2, O/U 50.5)

FCS baby!

Things are weird at North Dakota State right now. One day after railroading South Dakota to reach the semifinals, it was announced that Bison head coach Matt Entz is leaving to take a defensive coaching job at USC. However, Entz isn’t leaving until after the FCS playoffs.

I’m being told the move blindsided the team and several players are naturally concerned about what’s next for them or the program. And imagine how much time Entz has spent getting his affairs in order for sunny California.

On top of all that, I have Montana one point better on a neutral field. I’m lower on North Dakota State than most and given this is a true home game for Montana, my true number is closer to -3.5/4. Take from that what you must.

Let’s go Grizzlies.

PICK: Montana (-2) to win by more than 2 points

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-2, O/U 50.5)

I hate how much I love Buffalo in this spot.

The Bills remain one of football’s most talented teams, albeit a maddening one considering all six of their losses have come by one score. And how in the world did they lose to the New England Patriots? It blows my mind.

All that said, the Bills are still alive. Maybe they don’t deserve it, but they are. Now MVP front-runner Dak Prescott and the Cowboys roll into Orchard Park for a rainy Sunday affair with 20-mile-per-hour winds in the forecast.

Not ideal for a dome team with a heavy pass offense.

PICK: Bills (-2) to win by more than 2 points

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Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (-4.5, O/U 48)

Detroit’s defense is a problem.

The Lions have allowed 38, 26, 29, 28 and 28 in their last five games, and it’s not like they were facing playoff teams. The Chargers, Bears (x2), Packers and Saints aren’t exactly a murderer’s row of offensive prowess.

I do believe this is a great schedule spot for the Lions, though. They’re back home in the dome, where they’re averaging four touchdowns per game. Jared Goff won’t have to weather the weather like he did in 29-degree Chicago.

In a perfect world, this is a back-and-forth game with Goff and Russell Wilson airing the ball out all Saturday long. These secondaries are nothing special and as long as somebody sets the pace early, I like our chances.

PICK: Over 48 points scored by both teams combined

2023 Record: (37-31-3, +2.7)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.