National Football League

2023 NFL odds: Best Week 11 predictions, including Commanders, Dolphins to cover

Updated Nov. 14, 2023 12:02 p.m. ET

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Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The winner of NFL Week 10 was a team on a bye, and every team that's a direct threat to the Chiefs went down. 

The Bengals and Ravens were home favorites, but Cincy lost a thriller to Houston, and Baltimore blew a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead to Cleveland after looking like they were going to cruise to a cover of six points. 

The Jaguars then got boat-raced by the 49ers, and the Chargers lost to the Lions. 

As it stands, both the Buffalo Bills and the Bengals are not playoff teams, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Texans would be in. 

The NFL is king of parity.

Let's dive into my best bets for Week 11.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The Raiders are 5-5 after a second straight win on Sunday Night Football. They have five wins against these five teams and their quarterbacks (four of those five were within four points): 

• Denver, Russell Wilson, 17-16
• Packers, Jordan Love, 17-13
• Patriots, Mac Jones, 21-17
• Giants, Tommy DeVito, 30-6
• Jets, Zach Wilson, 16-12

A win is a win, but come on, these teams stink. None have winning records, and all five are in the bottom 10 in overall team efficiency. The Raiders have played three teams with a winning record and lost by 28 to the Bills, 12 to the Lions and five to the Steelers. They also lost to the Bears and Chargers. 

The Raiders stink.

On the other hand are the Dolphins, who, along with the Cowboys, are the best front-runners in the NFL. When they play bad teams, they dominate the game. The Dolphins beat the Broncos by 50, the Patriots by 21, the Patriots by 14 and the Giants by 15. Miami is also off a bye while the Raiders travel across the country for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. 

The Fins will cover the 10.

PICK: Dolphins (-10) to win by more than 10 points

Keyshawn Johnson on Raiders HC Antonio Pierce, Black head coaches

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

The G-Men are without key players, including their quarterback and best offensive lineman. In addition, their roster isn’t excellent, so the depth is not there to win without critical pieces. 

New York has lost 30-6 and 49-17 in the last two games with Tommy DeVito at quarterback. It has lost four games by at least 24 points this season. And while the Commanders aren’t good, they can move the ball, and the team continues to play hard despite trading its best defensive players and looking outside the playoffs right now. 

Take the Commanders. Be done with it. 

PICK: Commanders (-10) to win by more than 10 points

Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC)

Both teams are entering their Super Bowl rematch off a bye, and I give the edge to both offenses early in this game. 

The Chiefs offense has struggled to play to its standard this season, but it has shown the ability to play fast to start a game. Look at the Dolphins game just two weeks ago. In that game, K.C. scored two offensive touchdowns quickly in the first half. Plus, Kansas City is off its bye — a spot in which Andy Reid has excelled the most in his career.

Then there's the Eagles offense. That unit will have something prepared for this outstanding Chiefs defense. The Chiefs defense is the best in the Patrick Mahomes era, but that doesn’t mean the Eagles won't have something early for them with a few weeks of rest. 

In the Super Bowl last season, we saw that the Eagles drove the field early for a score and had 24 points by halftime. I think both offenses start fast before the defense can adjust. 

PICK: First half Under 23.5

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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Geoff Schwartz