National Football League

2023 NFL odds: Best Week 16 picks, predictions, including Cowboys-Dolphins

Updated Dec. 19, 2023 11:40 a.m. ET

The drama never stops in the NFL.

With three weeks left in the regular season, 26 teams are still alive for playoff berths.

That includes teams we didn't expect, like the Colts, Texans, Browns and Vikings.

Then there are the Bills. They might be the most dangerous team in the league, but they wouldn't even be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

It's going to be a wild finish to the year, that's for sure.

When looking at the Week 16 slate, I like a couple of early bets. Here are my three favorite wagers.

All times ET Sunday

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

I hate myself for this, but the Falcons are the play.

Yes, Atlanta is coming off possibly the worst loss of the season, 9-7 to the Panthers in a rain-filled slop fest in Charlotte.

Falcons coach Arthur Smith once again refused to use his best weapons on offense. However, the Falcons tend to play better on weekends following matchups in which they struggled on offense.

The Colts are 8-6 and in a three-way tie atop the AFC South. That's a spot they were not expected to be in, especially after losing quarterback Anthony Richardson to injury.

This tends to be a spot where a team like Indianapolis loses on the road. Also, the Colts' run defense is 27th in yards allowed per game, which plays into what Atlanta wants to do on offense.

PICK: Falcons (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)

Bills snap Cowboys 5-game win streak, Micah Parsons calls loss ‘unacceptable’

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins (4:25 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

Both teams are 10-4, and each has just a single win against a team with a .500 or better record.

What happens when two teams who beat up on bad teams but struggle against good teams play each other? I think I have the answer.

I'm taking the Cowboys in this game because of their performance on Sunday, even though Dallas went to Buffalo and got physically dominated. The Bills pushed around both lines just a week after the Cowboys did the same to the Eagles.

Losses are not tolerated, but they are accepted if they happen when you've given your best effort. The most damning way to lose a game is being soft, and good teams often bounce back after a "soft" loss. I expect the Cowboys to bounce back.

Miami looked outstanding without Tyreek Hill, so I'm concerned about backing Dallas if Hill is back in the lineup. However, the Cowboys' pass rush against the Dolphins' beat-up offensive line is where I think Dallas will have a huge advantage.

I like the Cowboys.

PICK: Cowboys (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (8:15 p.m., NFL Network)

The total is low (34.5), and I'll gladly grab it now before Under bettors start to hammer it.

The Patriots have trouble scoring. They needed a gift interception on a dropped pass by Kansas City's Kadarius Toney to get to 17 points. Otherwise, it's possible the Patriots would have ended that game with 10 points.

New England averages 13.3 points per game, and the Patriots just aren't going on the road to score a bunch at Denver.

On the other side are the Broncos, who score 21.7 points per game. Denver's offense has also struggled but has been helped over the last month with turnovers, leading to some easy points. New England's defense is still good and will confuse and harass Russell Wilson.

This brings me to my bet. This game has 20-10 or 17-14 written all over it. Give me the Under.

PICK: Under 34.5 points scored by both teams combined

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.