National Football League

2023 NFL odds: How to bet on the Packers win total

Updated Nov. 7, 2023 3:40 p.m. ET

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Jason McIntyre

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Right after the NFL Draft was completed, sportsbooks posted win totals for the 2023 season, and when I scanned the numbers, one surprisingly low number hung on an NFC North team immediately caught my eye.

The Green Bay Packers, long-time kings of the NFC North, had the same win total number as the Chicago Bears, the lowest in the division at 7.5.

That jumped out to me.

Let's dive into my thoughts on how to bet on Green Bay's win total this season.

On the one hand, the departure of quarterback Aaron Rodgers surely stings, but he played poorly in 2022 relative to his prior five years. Of course, they have Jordan Love waiting in the wings, a first-round pick they traded up for in 2020. Most would think Love's familiarity with the Matt LaFleuer offense would make this a rather seamless transition. And the rest of Green Bay's roster is solid, so the Packers should remain a contender in the NFC, right?

I don't see it, and I actually think you can make a case that Under 7.5 wins is the only way to bet on the Packers this upcoming season. 

For starters, two teams in the division improved significantly this offseason, with Chicago spending dramatically in free agency and also trading the first pick of the draft to secure star receiver DJ Moore. QB Justin Fields in Year 2 with OC Luke Getsy should improve, and in recent years, we’ve seen a direct correlation between teams that spend the most money in free agency (New England Patriots in 2021, Jacksonville Jaguars in 2022) and a bump in wins. Maybe the Bears didn’t spend all of their money wisely (linebacker? Really?), but they will certainly be improved. 

Expectations for the Detroit Lions are high — stop me if you’ve heard this before — after sweeping the Packers in 2022 and narrowly missing the playoffs despite nine wins. The league agrees; the Lions open the season against the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night football. They are currently the favorites to win the division.

And while the Minnesota Vikings won’t win 13 games again, they’ll be in 9-10 win territory.

Which brings us back to Green Bay. The schedule (reportedly) breaks favorably for them in one way. They open against the Bears and Falcons, both on the road, and they should be favored in both games. In fact, the Packers don’t face a 2022 playoff team until week eight (Minnesota). However, the schedule isn't without its hurdles. The Packers only play two games at Lambeau in the first 50 days of the NFL season. Thankfully the road games are not extreme, as they travel the second-fewest miles of any team this season. 

But, ultimately, the season really will come down to Love, who has started just one game so far in his career. Some of the early reports emitting from Lambeau are cause for concern, with the biggest red flag coming from longtime tackle David Bakhtiari, who said it looks like a "rebuild." Don't forget, he’s also seen Love in practice for three seasons.

Giants vs. Eagles on Christmas Day, 49ers vs. Eagles in week 13 announced ahead of NFL schedule release

Kevin Burkhardt and Erin Andrews announced two big matchups for FOX NFL this season including the New York Giants vs. the Philadelphia Eagles on Christmas Day and the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Eagles in Week 13.

Another report from ESPN this week claimed the Packers are "preaching patience" for Love, saying it’s going to take some time before he’s able to step on the field and "immediately light this up." Time? He’s been with this coaching staff for three years!

Before you chalk this up as nothing, look at Green Bay’s actions. They didn’t pick up Love’s fifth-year option, which would have meant he got a guaranteed $20.27 million. Instead, they gave him a one-year extension that only pays him $13.5 million, though incentives could push that up to $22.5 million. So even the Packers are treating this season like a prove-it-or-lose-it-one and hedging their bets.

Considering all this, I'm betting on the Packers to go under their win total.

PICK: Packers Under 7.5 wins

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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