2023 NFL odds: Sharp bettor talks win totals; Offensive Player of Year long shot
The NFL regular season doesn’t start for 10 weeks, but that doesn’t mean professional bettors aren’t spreading around cash.
I understand there will always be a faction of people who don’t love tying up their hard-earned money for six to seven months and that’s fine and dandy. But when certain bettors and groups find a perceived edge, they pounce.
That’s the way it works.
Adam Chernoff from Right Angle Sports was happy to share thoughts for the upcoming season from inside his inner circle — including a legit sleeper for Offensive Player of the Year in the 25-1 to 30-1 to range.
"Our top position was Falcons ‘Over’ and Falcons [to win the NFC South] at +230," Chernoff told FOX Sports. "All of us came to the exact same consensus there. Everybody liked Falcons ‘Over’ 8.5 wins.
"For the most part, strength of schedule is factored into season win totals, but a schedule playing easier or tougher over the course of the season is not. The Falcons’ schedule could be way easier than it’s projected to be.
"In their first 11 weeks, they’re playing seven opponents with complete uncertainty at quarterback when it comes to production."
A quick fact check shows Atlanta is scheduled to face Bryce Young, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Sam Howell, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill and Kyler Murray [off an ACL tear] over that stretch.
That’s two rookies, two first-year starters and two journeymen for those keeping score at home. Then there’s Murray, who might not even play if the Cardinals face plant early. If Arizona [O/U 4.5 wins] is 2-7 heading into Atlanta, maybe rookie Clayton Tune starts under center.
"We think the Saints are the weakest divisional favorite in the entire league," Chernoff continued. "There’s nothing but question marks around the Buccaneers and we don’t believe in the Panthers either.
"Also, Arthur Smith is in a make it or break it year with the team. There’s been clear emphasis on pieces he wants specifically for his offensive scheme. He’s really underrated as a head coach and a play caller, and we expect a lot more aggression on the offensive side of the ball."
Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears are one of the trendiest offseason teams because of general manager Ryan Poles’ crystal clear plan to build around quarterback Justin Fields with playmakers and protection.
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The Bears added a legit top receiver in D.J. Moore and drafted what they believe is an offensive tackle of the future in Darnell Wright. And signing free-agent middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds was a big deal for head coach Matt Eberflus’ defensive ideology.
Oh yeah — Aaron Rodgers departed the division, too.
"I’m neutral on Chicago mainly because of Eberflus at head coach," Chernoff opined. "I don’t love a defensive-minded coach trying to make an offensive scheme work. And he made a lot of changes to the defense late last year that everybody will be eyeing early this year.
"I’m down on the Lions and relatively down and uncertain on the Packers. I know someone that bet Packers ‘Over’ that I respect, which surprised me. And I’m a little higher than the market on the Vikings. The Bears are the only team I’m neutral on in that division. No real glaring opinion there."
Last year, Chernoff was one of the most bullish people I knew on the Jacksonville Jaguars. He pounded the table when discussing long shots to win a division title. The Jaguars were as high as +750 to win the AFC South and somehow, someway, they made it happen after starting 3-7.
He’s not as bullish this year.
Why Jaguars will be the AFC's No. 1 seed in 2023
"When we started doing the work in late March and early April, I was feeling the Jaguars ‘Over’ 9.5. The biggest comment that stood out from our group was ‘what if the Jaguars this year are the Colts last year?’
"Let’s not forget that Jacksonville needed six wins in its last seven games to back its way into the playoffs. Everything bounced right including the Titans’ absolute meltdown. We were truly a play or two away from the Jaguars not even making the playoffs last year.
"They didn’t really do anything in the offseason, so it’s basically the same team. And if it’s the same team that struggled a ton early last year and needs all that extra luck to right the ship, that’s cause for concern.
"I’m no longer as optimistic on the Jaguars."
Last but not least, a long shot.
Who doesn’t love the thought of betting $100 on a player to win, like, $3,000? Justin Jefferson was priced at 20-1 or higher to win the NFL Offensive Player of the Year last season and all he did was catch 128 balls for 1,809 yards and eight touchdowns to bring home the hardware.
Anybody to circle for 2023?
"Nick Chubb stands out a lot," Chernoff said. "Kareem Hunt isn’t there anymore, so it’s back to Chubb’s backfield entirely. There’s more emphasis from Stefanski on the pass, which will shift Chubb from being that outside-zone guy to an inside-zone guy. He was very good at that at Georgia.
"Deshaun Watson should be a lot better this year, too, because of his increased mobility. And that’ll open up a lot of big-play opportunities for Chubb to score now that he’s not sharing the backfield with somebody else.
"That’s a great price on Chubb."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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