National Football League

2023 NFL odds: Week 14 predictions, including Chiefs and Titans to cover

Updated Dec. 5, 2023 12:20 p.m. ET

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Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Week 13 in the NFL was one for the books.

The 49ers got a dominant win in Philadelphia, the Packers defeated the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football as big underdogs, and the Chargers covered a game with six total points. Then the Bengals — with Jake Browning at QB — finished the week by winning in Jacksonville. 

Will Week 14 produce another exciting weekend?

Let's jump into my best bets to discuss.

New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers (8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Prime Video)

The Patriots offense has reached rock bottom, scoring just 13 points over the last three games. The Patriots have lost three games in a row, even though their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer. There’s no fix for the offense either, as their quarterback situation is downright bad, with Bailey Zappe now taking snaps under center and Mac Jones benched. 

The Steelers defense has carried that team this season as the offense continues to flounder with an offensive coordinator change and now an injured Kenny Pickett. Pittsburgh's defense did not play up to standard on Sunday against the Cardinals in a bad home loss, so the Steelers will use the Patriots offense as a get-right situation on Thursday night. 

I’m wagering on the Patriots to continue their struggles moving the ball.

PICK: Patriots team total Under 12 points scored

Chiefs fall to Packers in Week 13 — Can K.C. win the Super Bowl with this offense?

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

I make it a habit to wager on Patrick Mahomes when he’s a favorite of three points or fewer. While the Chiefs offense appears stuck in the mud and, unlike most seasons, there’s a struggle to overcome mistakes, the Bills defense might present Kansas City with an opportunity to score points. 

The Bills defense has struggled lately with injuries. Its defensive efficiency ranking has dropped down to 17. The Chiefs offense is close to clicking if a single wide receiver can catch a football on a consistent basis. I also like to wager on the Chiefs when people count them out. Last season, they lost on this same weekend to the Bengals and then didn’t lose again for the rest of the 2022 season. It’s now or never for that offense to get it together.

It does worry me that the Bills are off a bye and appear to have possibly turned a corner on offense against the Eagles in their last game. The Bills fired Ken Dorsey as their play caller and with Joe Brady calling plays, they looked better. However, the Chiefs defense is one of the better units this season, ranking ninth in DVOA. 

I think the Chiefs win and cover.  

PICK: Chiefs (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

NFL Rankings: Brock Purdy helps 49ers rise; C.J. Stroud, Texans in the top 10?

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

The Miami Dolphins continue to steamroll teams with a losing record after collecting a 30-point win against the Commanders on Sunday. 

The Dolphins have beaten the Broncos by 50, the Giants by 16, Panthers and Jets by 21 and so on. Their offense is unstoppable when facing a defense that’s not physical enough to punch them in the mouth and stunt their speed. The Dolphins defense has transformed with the addition of Jalen Ramsey back into the lineup. It has yet to allow more than 17 points with him roaming the secondary. The Dolphins are facing the Titans, who had a "breakout" offensive game against the Colts in a loss on Sunday. 

The bigger concern for the Titans in this game is their defense operating without its best player in Jeffrey Simmons. I just don’t see how they stop this Dolphins offense unless the Dolphins implode themselves.

I will take the Dolphins to cover 13.5.

PICK: Dolphins (-13.5) to win by more than 13.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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Geoff Schwartz