National Football League

2023 NFL odds: Will Jets find success with Aaron Rodgers? How to bet them

Updated Apr. 26, 2023 3:34 p.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Two Aprils ago, the Los Angeles Rams were not considered favorites to win the Super Bowl. At the same time, the Cincinnati Bengals were one of the biggest long shots to do so, at +10000 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $1,010 total).

They met in the Super Bowl LVI on Feb. 13, 2022, with the Rams winning 23-20.

Last April, the Philadelphia Eagles were not close to being favorites to win Super Bowl LVII (+3300 at the start of the season). The Eagles had a great season, making it there easily but ended up losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in a classic, 38-35.

I won’t even reference Tom Brady going from the New England Patriots to the Buccaneers and seeing Tampa’s Super Bowl odds surge … and the Bucs winning the trophy in Brady's first season with Tampa Bay.

The point here is that Aaron Rodgers will have a massive impact on the New York Jets. With the surrounding offensive pieces and 10 out of 11 starters returning on defense, there’s a case they should have the third-best odds to come out of the AFC. They currently sit fourth-best in the AFC at +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total).

For a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2010 with Mark Sanchez – it’s the longest active drought in the NFL – a healthy, motivated Rodgers should propel them to the playoffs, assuming the defense can play at a similar level to 2022.

After a ghastly first season with coach Robert Saleh in 2021 (the Jets finished 32nd in defensive efficiency), they finished fifth in 2022 on the strength of the defensive coach getting players to fit his system. Also, rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner helped greatly, grading out as the top cornerback in the NFL.

And it wasn’t a defense driven by creating turnovers - they ranked 29th in takeaways.

Of course, defensive efficiency swings greatly from season to season – just ask the Washington Commanders and defensive end Chase Young, who have been on a roller coaster for three seasons – so any success the Jets have will be on the shoulders of Rodgers, who turns 40 on Dec. 2.

It just so happens he’s coming off a very down season when he threw 12 interceptions, which is nearly as many as he tossed in the prior four years combined (15).

One could argue that it was a result of a checked-out Rodgers and rookie receivers after losing Davante Adams. His rushing numbers fell off a cliff in the same way that Russell Wilson doesn’t scramble anymore.

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Where you can extract value is in the idea that a motivated Rodgers will want to prove – like Brett Favre did after the Packers traded him in 2008 – that he is an all-time great, not just a guy who puts up big regular-season numbers and flops in January.

The schedule is favorable, with zero trips to the West Coast, and the road games vs. the AFC West are against the two weaker teams in the division, Denver and Las Vegas.

He’ll go from yearly auto wins over the Bears and Lions (well, not last season) to battling Josh Allen and the Bills, as well as face Belichick and Miami offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel. Toss in Saleh coaching for his future – miss the playoffs, and he’ll be fired the same way Eric Mangini was after Favre couldn’t get the Jets to the postseason – and you’ve got a recipe for the Jets to flip that 4-6 record in close games to 6-4, which would mean nine wins and possibly a wild-card berth.

If the Jets can have another solid draft, they should be in the mix for 10 or 11 wins, and coming out of the AFC is not that far-fetched.

PICK: Jets Over 9.5 Wins
PICK: Jets to win Super Bowl (+1600 at FOX Bet)

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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