National Football League

2024 NFL Playoff Picture: Nine teams are near-locks; Bears, Bucs fade away

Updated Nov. 12, 2024 5:23 p.m. ET

It's not quite the stretch run of the NFL season just yet, but it sure is getting late for a bunch of NFL teams.

Though the playoff picture is far from secure, there are currently 11 teams with an 80 percent chance or better to make the playoffs — fantastic odds with only eight weeks to go. There is relative stability at the top, especially among most of the division leaders.

Meanwhile, time is beginning to run out on teams like the Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears. And it might already be over for teams like the New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys, both of whom dropped off this list with ugly losses on Sunday afternoon.

Here is the NFL playoff picture through Week 10:

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (8-1)

They won a game Sunday night they had no business winning, and that has to have them feeling like this is really just a special year. They became the first team since 1970 to win a game when they trailed by 15 points and their quarterback threw five interceptions. It was ridiculous and it kept them a step ahead of the pesky Vikings in the NFC North. By the way, they don’t see the Vikings again until Week 18.

Playoff probability: 99%

2. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)

Five wins in a row have put the Eagles back atop the NFC East and have them starting to feel unbeatable again. Their offense is rolling, particularly on the ground, and their defense is playing as well as it has all season. They destroyed Dallas, which wasn't a surprise with Cowboys QB Dak Prescott out, but the Eagles are still clicking everywhere. They will become overwhelming favorites to win the division if they can knock off the upstart Commanders at home on Thursday night.

Playoff probability: 92%

3. Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

There's no way to sugarcoat this for them. Losing to the New Orleans Saints less than a week after they fired their coach is really just a bad loss. A win could have opened up a three-game lead for them in the NFC South, which is otherwise falling apart. They're still in very good position, of course, and their offense is still clicking. But they've got a tough one next Sunday in Denver before they head into their bye.

Playoff probability: 83%

4. Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

Everything worked for them against the awful Jets on both sides of the ball. The most encouraging part, though, was a passing game that has been erratic this season. The Jets have a strong defense, but Kyler Murray accounted for 266 yards through the air, 21 on the ground, and three total touchdowns. They've won four straight and five of six, and their last two wins — against the Jets and Bears — have come by a combined score of 60-15. They'll need to stay hot to stay in front of an improving NFC West.

Playoff probability: 56%

5. Minnesota Vikings (7-2)

A win is a win, but … yuck! That 12-7 victory in Jacksonville was hideous, and Sam Darnold's three-interception performance sure does open up a lot of questions about whether he's going to be able to keep the Vikings alive the rest of the season. He now has 5 interceptions in the last two games, 8 in the last five games, and 10 on the season. Oh, and now running back Aaron Jones — the engine of their offense — is hurt again, too.

Playoff probability: 92%

6. Washington Commanders (7-3)

They are legit good and hard to beat, but they also have now dropped to second place in the NFC East after losing a heartbreaker at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels struggled against a tough defense, which allowed the Steelers to claw back from a 10-point second-half deficit. The Commanders still have a huge opportunity to get back on top this Thursday night in Philadelphia, though. It's the game of the year in the division.

Playoff probability: 79%

7. Green Bay Packers (6-3)

The bye week came at a great time for them, presumably giving quarterback Jordan Love a chance to get healthy. And they will need him at 100 percent because after a game in Chicago next Sunday when their schedule gets dicey. They play the 49ers and Dolphins, before road trips to Detroit and Seattle. Those four games will show whether they have what it takes to make a real run in the NFC.

Playoff probability: 67%

On the outside looking in: The San Francisco 49ers (5-4) got Christian McCaffrey back and some much-needed energy on offense. They are a real threat to make a run now. … The Seattle Seahawks (4-5) were off this weekend. Next up is a trip to San Francisco and a home game against the Cardinals. Consider that their last stand. … The Los Angeles Rams (4-5) snapped a three-game winning streak with a bad loss at home to the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. They’ll need to bounce back quickly in New England next Sunday to stay in this race. … The Chicago Bears (4-5) lost 19-3 at home to the Patriots, had just 142 yards of offense and have now lost three straight games. The end is near. … Injuries are catching up to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) who were a no-show on offense in their loss in San Francisco. They're now on a four-game losing streak heading into their bye.

Tom Brady breaks down Brock Purdy, 49ers' impressive win over Bucs

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)

Is there anyone who can beat them? The plucky Denver Broncos came pretty close on Sunday, getting well within range of a game-winning field goal at the end of the game. But the Chiefs blocked Will Lutz's 35-yard attempt and escaped with the victory. They still don't look like their old, dominant selves — especially on offense. But they are still unscathed, heading into an AFC showdown in Buffalo on Sunday.

Playoff probability: 99%

2. Buffalo Bills (8-2)

They won an unusually sloppy game for them, but luckily the Indianapolis Colts were even sloppier. The Bills are good enough, though, to get away with not being their best. That won't be the case on Sunday when they play the game that's long been circled on their calendar — a home game against the undefeated Chiefs. They've won five in a row and are running away with the AFC East. But beating the Chiefs is their much bigger goal.

Playoff probability: 99%

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)

They are now 3-0 since Russell Wilson replaced Justin Fields at quarterback and they've won four in a row overall. They had to hold on to beat a good Washington Commanders team on the road, but they did it thanks to a defense that gave up only 242 yards. This was just the setup, though, for the real test which comes next Sunday when they are home against the Baltimore Ravens. It will be, by far, their toughest game of the season and will set the tone for the stretch run in the NFC North.

Playoff probability: 93%

4. Houston Texans (6-4)

They could have opened up a three-game lead in the crumbling AFC South if they had held on against the Lions on Sunday night. But their offense shut down, they got sloppy and the Lions are just too good. They’ll probably still win that bad division, but that’s two straight losses now. Good thing the Cowboys, Titans and Jaguars are up next for them before their bye.

Playoff probability: 96%

5. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)

There was good and bad that came out of their wild, 35-34 win over Cincinnati on Thursday night which ended on a failed two-point conversion by the Bengals. The good is that the Ravens offense continued to roll, and it's hard to find defense that is capable of stopping them. The bad is that they continue to show cracks on defense, particularly in their secondary. Still, they've got a shot to take over first place in the division when they play in Pittsburgh next Sunday.

Playoff probability: 97%

6. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

Justin Herbert has now thrown for less than 200 yards in five of nine games this season, after throwing for just 164 in a win over the Titans on Sunday, but that's just proof that the Chargers no longer ride just on his shoulders. They have a balanced offense and a strong defense and Herbert, by the way, has thrown just one interception this season — none in the last seven games. They are built to be a tough out, but they have a real tough schedule the rest of the season, starting with a stretch against the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons and Chiefs.

Playoff probability: 85%

7. Denver Broncos (5-5)

What a boost it would have been if they could have pulled off the upset in Kansas City on Sunday. In fact, they should have, but their game-winning field goal was blocked. Still, they showed that with their defense they might be capable of beating anybody. They're certainly capable of keeping every game close. They've lost two straight now, but that's been against two of the best teams in the AFC — Kansas City and Baltimore. Things should be easier with the Falcons, Raiders and Browns up next.

Playoff probability: 51%

On the outside looking in: It's three straight losses now for the Indianapolis Colts (4-6) under the direction of two different quarterbacks. Their schedule isn't terrible and they're only one game back, but they aren't playing like a team that can stay in it. … The Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) should have beaten the Ravens on Thursday night, but they didn't — the story of their season, really. They are 4-3 after an 0-3 start and good enough to make a run. They play the Chargers and Steelers next, though, so it won't be easy.

Joey Bosa on Chargers' 27-17 win over the Titans

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.