National Football League

NFL Playoff Picture: AFC, NFC matchups & analysis for divisional round

Updated Jan. 13, 2025 11:17 p.m. ET

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Ralph Vacchiano

NFL Reporter

Five of the six top seeds held serve in the first round of the NFL playoffs. The Washington Commanders were the only wildcard-round surprise.

They continued their storybook season on Sunday night, knocking out the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 on a dramatic, game-winning field goal that actually bounced off the right upright and in just as time expired. That made Washington the only wild-card team thus far to advance to the divisional round.

The five other division winners — the Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams— are all moving on after winning their first-round playoff games at home. The Los Angeles Rams wrapped up the final spot on Monday night with their win over the Minnesota Vikings in a game that had to be relocated to Glendale, Ariz., because of the wildfires in Southern California.

Now, of course, the road to Super Bowl LIX gets even tougher with the top seeds — the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions — ready to come off their bye week. So, here's a look at the upcoming matchups in next weekend's divisional round:

AFC

4. Houston Texans at 1. Kansas City Chiefs — Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)

The Texans were probably the least likely division winner to get to the second round considering how they had played over the last few months of the season. But while their 32-12 wild-card win over the Los Angeles Chargers was as impressive as it was surprising, facing the two-time defending champion Chiefs in Kansas City will be an enormous step up in class.

Now, beating them isn't necessarily impossible. The Chiefs aren't the offensive juggernaut they once were (they averaged a respectable, but middling 24.1 points per game). They are a defense-powered team with an all-world quarterback, which is why they were in so many close games and won most of them (They were 11-0 in games decided by one score or less).

The Texans were 7-5 in one-score games and they do actually have a signature win that might show they can compete with the Chiefs. They beat the second-seeded Buffalo Bills 23-20 back on Oct. 6. But that was in Houston and it took the worst game of the season for Bills quarterback Josh Allen (9 for 30, 131 yards, 1 touchdown), the best game of the season from Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (28 of 38, 331 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception) and a 59-yard field goal from Texans kicker Ka′imi Fairbairn as time expired.

Can they expect a similar set of miracles against a well-rested Chiefs team in K.C. where, oh by the way, the long-range forecast is calling for temperatures in the teens next weekend? Anything is possible. And Stroud was outstanding in the wild-card round, completing 22 of 33 passes for 282 yards with a touchdown and an interception. And their defense did torture Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert picking off four of his passes (after he threw only three interceptions in the regular season).

But Herbert is no Patrick Mahomes. And as the Chiefs showed all season long, they're battle-tested, still dangerous, and shouldn't be counted out by anyone yet.

3. Baltimore Ravens at 2. Buffalo Bills — Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

With all due respect to the Chiefs and anyone in the NFC, this playoff game could be the matchup of the postseason.

It will be highlighted by the likely 1-2 finishers in the MVP voting — Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Bills quarterback Josh Allen. But really this battle is about so much more. They both have top-10 rushing attacks too, not to mention two of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL. And they are two of the top three scoring offenses in the NFL overall.

They're also both hot. The Bills went 10-2 down the stretch before adding in their 31-7 wild-card win over the Denver Broncos on Sunday. And the Ravens won their last four and five of their last six, before dispatching the Pittsburgh Steelers 28-14 in their wild-card game on Saturday.

And they're both built for the cold weather and possible snow that they'll likely get in Orchard Park, N.Y. next weekend. It takes teams that dominate the trenches to succeed in bad conditions, and both of these teams do. And it takes a powerful rushing attack (the Bills average 131.2 rushing yards per game and the Ravens average 187.6) and dangerous running backs (Baltimore's Derrick Henry ran for 1,921 yards this season, while Buffalo's James Cook ran for 1,009, but on 118 fewer carries) to win when the weather turns.

Both teams are built for postseason success and bad-weather games. Both are true Super Bowl contenders. It's almost a shame that the prize for winning this game is a trip to Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game where they'll have to face the two-time defending champion Chiefs, because this would have made for a great championship game on its own.

NFC

7. Washington Commanders at 1. Detroit Lions — Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)

There probably will come a point where midnight strikes on Jayden Daniels time as the bell of the NFL ball. But the Commanders rookie quarterback is not ready to end his party yet.

Daniels' playoff debut wasn't his finest performance, but it was enough for him to do what he has done so often this season — find a way to lead the Commanders to a win. Their defense shut down what had been a high-octane Buccaneers passing attack, and then Daniels managed to do the rest, leading them to a 23-20 win that was sealed when Zane Gonzalez doinked in a game-winning, 37-yard field goal off the right upright as time expired. 

Of course, for winning his first playoff game — and giving the Commanders franchise a postseason win for the first time in 19 years — Daniels' reward is a trip to Detroit to face the dangerous and motivated Lions, who have been a heat-seeking missile of sorts since they blew their halftime lead in the NFC Championship Game last year. They're the highest-scoring team in the NFL and ranked seventh in points allowed. And of course, they are very battle-tested after their deep playoff run one year ago.

Perhaps most importantly, especially to the Commanders, the Lions are a powerful rushing team, that averaged 146.4 rushing yards per game this season and are hoping for a boost from the potential return of injured running back David Montgomery. Washington had the third-worst run defense in the league, allowing 137.5 yards per game.

That seems like the seeds of a mismatch, but who knows how it'll affect the Commanders because they are running on the high energy of youth. It's not just Daniels, either. It's the whole franchise, experiencing a success that it hasn't had in decades. Daniels has helped make them a top-10 offense, and kept them hot, finishing off the season with five straight wins. 

But most importantly they are a team that is currently playing without fear, because they know that in the first year of what coach Dan Quinn called a "recalibration," they literally have nothing to lose. They're going to need to remember that, and keep playing like that, if they have any hopes of knocking off the NFC's top seed.

4. Los Angeles Rams at 2. Philadelphia Eagles — Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC)

It probably was inevitable that the clock was going to strike midnight on the Vikings and Sam Darnold’s Cinderella season, but don’t let that take away from what the Rams did in their 27-9 win on Monday night. They showed that despite their sometimes-erratic season, they have a dangerous offense and an opportunistic defense that makes them capable of playing with very good teams.

Of course, there’s a big difference between beating the Vikings, who have been playing over their heads all season long, and doing it to the powerful Eagles, who have been one of the NFL’s best teams for most of the year. The Rams, in fact, have seen that up close. Back in late November, they were steamrolled by the Eagles 37-20 in a game where Philly running back Saquon Barkley ran for a phenomenal 255 yards.

The Rams rushing defense ranked 22nd in the NFL, giving up 130 yards per game, so that’s obviously a problem. Even if they can somehow harass quarterback Jalen Hurts the way they did Darnold on Monday night (nine sacks), the Eagles have a lot of different ways to make them pay.

And oh, by the way, the Eagles also have the NFL’s No. 1 defense, which they proudly flexed in their wild-card win on Sunday when they did their own harassing of Packers quarterback Jordan Love and forced him into a season-worst three interceptions.

Sean McVay is a brilliant coach and when Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford gets hot, good things can happen for the Rams. Running back Kyren Williams, who only had 76 yards against the Eagles, can be a dangerous weapon too. And they do come in relatively hot. They had won five straight and 9 of 11 before they sat many of their starters and lost in the season finale.

The Eagles, though, have been on a long-running mission, going 13-1 since September ended. And they’ve also gone 9-1 this season at home. The Rams did beat the Buffalo Bills five weeks ago. That’s the caliber of competition they’re going to face here.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

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Ralph Vacchiano