National Football League

2023 NFL Rookie of Year odds: Bijan Robinson opens as favorite, best bets

Updated May. 4, 2023 12:44 p.m. ET

With the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, it's time to turn our attention to futures wagers, starting with the Offensive Rookie of the Year options.

In the last 10 seasons, a player drafted in the top 12 has won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

The three exceptions were Dak Prescott, who ended up playing because Tony Romo was injured, Alvin Kamara and Eddie Lacy.

Although he is the favorite, I'm not wagering on Bijan Robinson because the Atlanta Falcons have too many running back options and I do not believe he's going to get a bulk of the carries. They are going to be behind in a bunch of games and that will take away opportunities at the end of the game for the rushing attack. Beware.

With that as the backdrop, here are my four favorite wagers for this award.

Bryce Young: +460 (bet $10 to win $56 total)

Bryce Young is my favorite wager to win the Rookie of the Year award because he became the Carolina Panthers starting quarterback as soon as he was drafted with the first pick.

Young was the most ready-to-play of the top quarterback prospects in this draft, and the Panthers traded considerable assets to acquire him. The Panthers' front office did not draft the Heisman-winning QB with the intention of him sitting behind Andy Dalton for months learning the offense. So Young getting Day 1 reps as the starter puts him ahead of the other quarterbacks selected because they will not have the same opportunities to play early on in the season.

If Bryce can play well early in his Panthers career, his new squad has the real opportunity to be a playoff team in the weak NFC South. The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have below-average quarterbacks. And the New Orleans Saints have Derek Carr, but their roster is not as deep as Carolina's.

The Panthers have a legit defense on paper, and with a new defensive staff, they can potentially be a top-10 unit. Carolina has a talented but young offensive line and a rushing attack that proved to be better without Christian McCaffery last season. Young also has enough weapons on the edge to move the ball.

Bryce Young will have good numbers while winning in Charlotte. That will help him win this award.

Anthony Richardson under the most pressure of QBs in the 2023 draft class?

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Anthony Richardson: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)

Richardson has the athletic wow factor to win an award that is often more about the highlight packages and less about the box score. He's a raw prospect, but he's got a lot of technique and skill work ahead of him to become the quarterback the Colts want him to be.

Richardson needs game reps to improve, so I expect the Indianapolis Colts will play him early and let him learn on the fly. The reason why I love this draft pick for the Colts is also why I think this wager is a good one. The Colts have acknowledged what this season might look like for Richardson. Check out this quote from general manager Chris Ballard.

"We’re taking a guy not only for what he can do today but for what he can become tomorrow. I’ve told our guys here that Anthony might have some games where he’s nine of 22 for 105 yards — but in the game, he’ll run 10 times for 115 yards. It just might look different for a while."

That difference is what wins these types of awards. Having games with a handful of highlight rushing plays and an occasional instance where he shows off his rocket arm could be enough for this wager to cash.

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2024 NFL Offensive ROY ODDS*

Bijan Robinson: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Bryce Young: +460 (bet $10 to win $56 total)
C.J. Stroud: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Anthony Richardson: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Jahmyr Gibbs: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Jordan Addison: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Quentin Johnson: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Zay Flowers: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Will Levis: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)

*Odds as of 5/3/2023

Jordan Addison: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)

It’s vital to draft players that fit your offensive or defensive philosophy, and the Minnesota Vikings did that with Jordan Addison.

The wide receiver from USC is an elite route runner with quick feet and the ability to work complex routes. Addison will be featured in the slot in the Vikings' offense, and with Justin Jefferson opposite of him in formation, defenses will focus on Jefferson, so Addison will be able to work freely.

Vikings' quarterback Kirk Cousins, whether by design or not, had his lowest adjusted yards per attempt of his career in 2022. He was throwing the ball shorter than ever, which is where Addison becomes valuable for this offense. Addison will be that target for Cousins if this trend continues, and he will rack up a ton of yards after the catch because he is likely to be singled up with defensive attention elsewhere.

Expect him to have a big season in Minnesota

Zach Charbonnet: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)

This is my favorite "long-shot" wager for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Maybe it’s a homer wager since I root for UCLA and cover the Pac-12 conference, but Charbonnet has the potential for a big season if things break right in Seattle.

Charbonnet will share the backfield with Kenneth Walker, who rushed for over 1000 yards in his first Seattle season, but Pete Carroll has already said there will be competition for reps in the backfield.

The rookie has the potential to add a ton of value in the passing game, something he did extremely well at UCLA. At this price, he's definitely worth the sprinkle.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.

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