National Football League

2023 NFL Week 1 odds: Bookmakers discuss big matchups, early line moves

Updated May. 15, 2023 4:20 p.m. ET

If there’s one thing American sports betting consumers have proven, it’s that they can’t get enough of the NFL. Even months out, people are eager to see spreads and get in on the league that drives the U.S. sports betting bus.

Such is the case now with NFL Week 1 odds in the wake of Thursday's release of the 2022-23 schedule. The season opens with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs facing the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football in a Sept. 7 showdown.

BetMGM’s Seamus Magee and FOX Bet’s Dylan Brossman and Matt Griffe dive into that matchup and a few of the more notable games on FOX and the Week 1 odds board.

Let's dive into all the early action!

Hail to the Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are coming off an epically entertaining Super Bowl win, edging the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35. So Kansas City gets the honor of hosting the first game out of the gate.

And again, even though it’s nearly four months until kickoff, some bettors felt it was worth it to wager early at BetMGM.

"We opened K.C. -7 and actually took some sharp action on the Lions to get us off the flat number and onto Chiefs -6.5," Magee said. "If the Chiefs close under a flat 7" – meaning -7 (-110, bet $10 to win $19.09 total) – I can see us writing a lot of K.C. tickets and parlays. While a lot of people like the Lions, the public loves Patrick Mahomes more than anything."

Brossman, trading operations senior manager for FOX Bet, anticipates a high-flying affair to kick off the season.

"K.C. should put up plenty of points against a notoriously weak Detroit defense," Brossman said. "The total currently stands at 53.5, which is 4.5 points higher than the next-highest game in Week 1. The NFL did well to choose this matchup as its opener."

The Lions were among the hottest teams in the league in the second half of the 2022-23 season. Detroit went 8-2 straight up (SU) and 9-1 against the spread (ATS) over its last 10 games.

"The Lions look to improve on last year’s nine-win season, but unfortunately, their journey begins on the road vs. the defending champs," Brossman said. "If the Lions can pull off the upset in Week 1, then they have a realistic chance to be 5-1 or 6-0 before their Week 7 matchup in Baltimore."

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NFL Week 1 Rocks on FOX

In the FOX Game of the Week, the Green Bay Packers – who’ve moved on from four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers – open against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. FOX Bet opened Justin Fields and the Bears as modest 1.5-point favorites against Jordan Love and the Packers.

"Bears vs. Packers is arguably the league’s most storied rivalry and would have intrigue even with you and me at quarterback," Griffe said. "This game should showcase two young QBs who should have a good deal of hype entering the season. Justin Fields looked unstoppable at times in 2022 and now has a true No. 1 [wideout] in DJ Moore. Jordan Love has shown flashes in limited work and has a chance to showcase his skills against a young Bears defense.

"The market on both the Bears and Packers feels depressed. I would not be surprised if both challenged Detroit in the NFC North."

In the Bears’ case, that depressed market is understandable. Chicago finished dead last in the NFL last season at 3-14 SU (5-11-1 ATS).

Can they turn it around this upcoming season? One thing is for certain, bettors will be ready to fire away on this game on FOX.

Sunday Night Showcase

The NFC East was arguably the best division in the NFL last season, with three of four teams reaching the playoffs. Two of those teams square off in the NFL Week 1 Sunday nighter, with the always-popular Dallas Cowboys traveling to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Giants.

Dallas finished 12-5 SU/8-8-1 ATS in the 2022-23 regular season, then went to Tampa Bay and beat the Bucs on wild-card weekend. But the Cowboys’ season ended with a 19-12 loss at San Francisco in the divisional round.

New York went 9-7-1 SU and a superb 13-4 ATS in the regular season, then beat host Minnesota in the wild-card round. A week later, though, the Giants got drubbed 38-7 by eventual NFC champ Philadelphia.

"We opened up Cowboys -3 and 46.5, and we’ve stayed there since, with no real action leaning toward either side," Magee said. "Similar to Bills-Jets the following night, this should be a huge game. I imagine we’ll be writing more bets on the Cowboys come kickoff.

"The early sentiment I’m getting is that people will be lower on the Giants this year, from looking at their win total and some of the sharp money we’ve seen on that win total during the last few weeks."

Indeed, BetMGM has the Giants’ win total at 8.5, with the Under a -145 favorite (bet $10 to win $16.90 total) and the Over a +120 underdog.

[RELATED: Lines, spreads for NFL Week 1]

Marquee Monday Night

The NFL couldn’t have done much better in selecting its Monday Night Football opener. Rodgers makes his New York Jets debut at home against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

If recreational bettors see their NFL parlays/moneyline parlays survive Sunday – read: If Week 1 favorites have a good Thursday/Sunday – then there will be a ton of money rolling into this Bills-Jets clash. FOX Bet currently has Buffalo as a 2-point favorite.

"Tip of the cap to the schedule makers here. Bills vs. Jets to close Week 1 is the circus we all want, and it should provide some insight into what 2023 holds for both teams," Griffe said. "Bills by under 3 points feels like an autoplay for me. I will be looking to fade the Jets until they prove they can hang with the elites in the AFC."

BetMGM opened this game a tick below FOX Bet’s number.

"We opened Bills -1.5 and 47.5, and we have stayed there. Nothing of note wagered so far," Magee said. "I could see this being an evenly split game by kickoff. It should be a great game handle-wise to kick off Monday Night Football."

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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