National Football League

2023 NFL Week 11 odds, predictions, best bets by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica

Updated Nov. 17, 2023 12:03 p.m. ET

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

For those new to this space, if you are looking for some wagers to get in on the NFL action, I have you covered. Nothing makes football better than having a few bucks on the games.

Last week, we finished 2-0-1. Let's keep that momentum going in Week 11.

Now, let's get into the fun. Here are my best bets for this week's slate.

(All times ET Sunday)

Last Week: 2-0-1 (Season: 19-17-2)

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 p.m ET CBS)

I didn’t believe in the Jaguars last week, and the Niners won like I thought they would. Now, off a brutal offensive performance last week, it's the perfect time to grab the Titans.

This will be a "Vrabel Special" against a side that will be a very popular favorite off an embarrassing home loss that has a little divisional pressure on it.

PICK: Titans (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points (or win outright)

Nick's Picks: Bet on Jaguars (again), Mahomes vs. Eagles, Seahawks in Week 11

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (1:00 p.m. ET CBS)

This line move is way too much. The Steelers continue to defy logic, winning games they are outgained and trail entering the fourth quarter. Plus, they are getting all the coin-flippy luck.

Yes, it's Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, and people remember how awful he was earlier this year. But it's also the Browns defense against a really bad Steelers offense.

I think the Browns will play inspired down their QB amid all the naysayers. And the Steelers are long overdue to be on the wrong side of a close game.

PICK: Browns Pick' em (Cleveland to win outright)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers (1:00 p.m. ET FOX and FOX Sports App)

Jordan Love actually played well last week, and against a horrible Chargers secondary, he should be able to put together consecutive solid games.

A missed PAT cost the Packers sending that game into overtime at the very least last week.

Green Bay has been in close games most of the season, and the Chargers are completely untrustworthy in close games.

Now LAC goes on the road with a QB whose hand is clearly not 100%. Seems like taking the points is the way to go here.

PICK: Packers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans (1:00 p.m. ET CBS)

I'm hopeful to get a better number as we get closer to kickoff, as all this talk of CJ Stroud, DeMeco Ryans, and the Texans making the playoffs will drive the number up.

As someone with a Cardinals win total under ticket, I’ll admit I’m more than a little worried. But Kyler Murray looked good last week, and we might be getting in on a little bit of an inflated number on the favorite.

PICK: Cardinals (+5) to lose by fewer than 5 points (or win outright)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs (Monday 8:15 p.m. ET ABC)

I just have to trust Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes here off the bye — yes, the Eagles are off a bye, too.

The Chiefs are healthy, and I like their defense against an Eagles offense that has turned it over a bit this year. Plus, the Eagles have flirted with a few losses this season, and you have to think it catches up with them at some point.

PICK: Chiefs (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (1:00 p.m. ET FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Bears will score on Detroit. Everyone seemingly does. That should be enough to keep them in the game against the public-backed Lions. I'll take the points.

PICK: Bears (+8) to lose by fewer than 8 points (or win outright)

SURVIVOR PLAYS

Here is how I'm playing Survivor this week.

I’m going to assume most people have used the Dolphins by now. Clearly, they are the likeliest winners this week, but there are other options if you want to "play the game."

Tommy DeVito is the Giants' quarterback. That's all you need to hear.

I'm using the Commanders as my top pick this week. Yes, the Giants beat the Commanders a few weeks ago in a brutal game, but since then, the Giants have been atrocious. Sam Howell should throw all over this defense.

If you are looking for an alternative, how about the Bills? They are untrustable right now, but a great play this week against a pitiful Jets offense. I'm guessing most people have used the Bills by now, but this will be the last chance to use them confidently. I’d be careful with Houston and Jacksonville, as it wouldn't surprise me if one or both lost outright.

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.