National Football League

2023 NFL Week 16 odds, best bets: Look for Miami to win, Eagles to cover

Updated Dec. 30, 2023 11:14 a.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Only three Sundays are left in the NFL's regular season, and we've got at least one nice gift on this weekend's holiday betting slate.

For the Game of the Week, the Dallas Cowboys are featured again for the second week in a row. They're heading to Miami this time to take on the Dolphins on FOX and the FOX Sports app.

I made the right choice by fading the Cowboys last week. Do you think I'm fading America's Team again?

Speaking of last week, I ended up a solid 3-0-1, pushing me to 65 percent this season (50-29-2).

Let's keep this going! Here are my best bets for Week 16.

All times ET

Cowboys @ Dolphins (4:25 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

This is a fascinating matchup of two teams that can’t beat anyone good. They are bullies against inferior teams and then get pushed around against contenders.

Miami’s offensive line is banged up, which could lead to problems in their zone run game. If you watched the 49ers browbeat the Cowboys earlier this season, Miami’s Mike McDaniel runs a very similar offense, having spent five seasons there.

If Dallas DT Jonathan Hankins (knee/ankle) doesn’t play, we saw what happens to this defense against the run (see: Buffalo loss). And Dan Quinn’s man-to-man defense against the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle carries massive risk.

Back-to-back road games in December aren’t ideal for a Dallas team that hasn’t had a bye since Week 7.

PICK: Dolphins (-1) to win by more than 1 point

Cowboys at Dolphins: will Dak Prescott lead Dallas to a Week 16 win in Miami?

Giants @ Eagles (4:30 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

I’m trying not to get in my own head and overthink things, but I have an irrational love for the Eagles here. Forget the 3-game losing streak.

Tommy Devito turned into a pumpkin last week in New Orleans, and with six games of tape out there, it’s a perfect recipe for the Eagles defense to get right.

The Eagles have played Dallas, KC, Buffalo, San Francisco, Dallas and Seattle in the last six weeks — the toughest schedule in the league during that time. This is a huge step down in class.

Last year, when the Giants were a playoff team, the Eagles smacked them by 20 twice.

PICK: Eagles (-13.5) to win by more than 13.5 points

Can Dan Campbell, Jared Goff DELIVER on higher expectations for Lions?

Lions @ Vikings (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

Professional money has been coming in on Minnesota this week, and I love this game if you can find the hook.

Nick Mullens looked fine last week on the road (26-33, 303 yards, 9.2 YPA), but two brutal interceptions contributed to the loss. Now, he goes home against a poor defense. More importantly, Brian Flores is blitzing at the highest rate in the NFL this season, and Jared Goff has struggled badly against the blitz, throwing eight interceptions, second most in the NFL.

I’ll trust Kevin O’Connell to scheme up enough offense — big game for T.J. Hockenson? — to keep this close.

PICK: Minnesota (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Blazin' 5: Ravens cover vs. 49ers, Cowboys upset Dolphins in Colin's Week 16 picks

2-team, 6-point teaser

Denver -7 to -1
Indianapolis +2.5 to +8.5

Denver is expecting snow Sunday during the game, and neither of these teams has the ability to run away and hide. Just take the Broncos to win by one and keep their playoff hopes alive while the Patriots stay in the mix for the No. 1 pick.

The Colts are shockingly healthy this week — Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are expected to play — and betting on rookie coach Shane Steichen this season has been profitable (9-5 against the spread, tied for best in the NFL).

The Falcons aren’t explosive enough offensively to put anyone away. Atlanta hasn’t topped 28 points yet this season. Expect Arthur Smith coaching for his job with conservative play calling, especially if he has a fourth-quarter lead.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX Sports, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.