National Football League

2023 NFL Week 17 odds, predictions, best bets by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica

Updated Dec. 29, 2023 10:22 a.m. ET

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

For those new to this space, if you are looking for some wagers to get in on the NFL action, I have you covered. Nothing makes football better than having a few bucks on the games.

Last week, we finished 2-2. Let's gain some momentum going into Week 17.

Here are my best bets for this week's slate, plus my pick for the College Football Playoff Sugar Bowl semifinal matchup.

(All times ET)

Last Week: 2-2 (Season: 32-24-3)

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 p.m. Dec. 31, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Give Tampa credit. The Buccaneers were sitting there at 4-7, then put together a four-game winning streak. Last week, they blew out the Jaguars, who I kinda thought were overrated all year long. Now, the Buccaneers are sitting at 8-7 and clearly have the division within their sight.

However, I think this week will be a difficult game for them. The Saints are coming off a game where they were not competitive and are in a last-stand situation. And what's the gap between these two teams? I don't think much. I would expect the New Orleans defense to come out and play well and give Baker Mayfield and that offense a problem.

It won't be as easy for the Bucs, so I'll take the nice, ugly underdog in the Saints.

PICK: Saints (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m. Dec. 31, CBS)

The Colts were dreadful last week in their loss to the Falcons. But now they return home against a Raiders team off of the high of the upset win in Kansas City — but that was more about bad Kansas City, as two ridiculous defensive touchdowns accounted for basically all the points for the Raiders.

I would take the Colts here. Their playoff chase is still on, laying the short number here at home. I would expect the Colts to come out and have a good bit of success against a Raiders team that probably might be a tad overvalued, at least in the public's eyes.

PICK: Colts (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks (4:05 p.m. Dec. 31, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Seattle's been doing it with smoke and mirrors all year long with its amazing, late comebacks. As a result, the Seahawks have gotten themselves from way out of the playoff race to now being a pretty heavy favorite to get into the playoffs.

I like them here at home against the Steelers. Give Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph credit — he took advantage of that start last week and went out and beat the Bengals. But let's not kid ourselves; this is not like the Steelers have found their quarterback of the future or that they've turned the corner offensively. Now that Geno Smith is healthy and with the offensive weapons that he has, I think the Seahawks will be able to win an ugly game.

This has 23-13 written all over it.

PICK: Seahawks (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points

Sugar Bowl: Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies (8:45 p.m. Jan. 1, ESPN)

I like Texas here. Of the four teams remaining in the playoffs, I think Texas is the most complete, well-rounded team with what the Longhorns can do offensively and with that front seven on defense. They have the most ways to beat you.

It certainly wasn't a fluke that Texas won that game against Alabama in Tuscaloosa earlier in the year. The Longhorns aren't getting the full amount of respect they deserve for the season that they put together. I think one of the biggest keys to the game will be Washington's ability to stop the Texas run. The Huskies will have to play zone. If they're forced to play man, that could be a problem. Also, can Washington's offensive line block? If Texas can pressure Michael Penix and force him to make decisions earlier than he would like, that will disrupt the Huskies offense — something they didn't face a ton this year in the Pac-12.

PICK: Texas (-4) to win by more than 4 points

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.