National Football League

2023 NFL Week 4 odds, predictions, best bets by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica

Updated Sep. 29, 2023 11:56 a.m. ET

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

We had a good showing last week, so let's keep the good times rolling in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Nothing makes football better than having a few bucks on the games. And if you are looking for some wagers to get in on the action, I have you covered.

Lastly, don't forget to check out my digital gambling show and podcast. We appreciate everyone who has listened and can't wait to provide you with some winners. As a reminder, the college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, while the NFL-themed episodes will drop on Fridays.

Now, let's get into the fun. Here are my best bets for the Week 4 NFL slate.

(All times ET Sunday)

Last Week: 3-1 (Season: 5-7)

Bengals at Titans (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

Monday night’s win was more about some poor decisions and turnovers by the Rams than anything the Bengals were great at. I still have my concerns over Joe Burrow’s health, and let's be honest, the Cincinnati offense has not been its explosive self thus far.

While the Titans offense has looked atrocious against anyone other than the Chargers, I’ll take Mike Vrabel’s team getting a couple of points here off the embarrassing loss at Cleveland.

PICK: Titans (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)

Buccaneers at Saints (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

New Orleans has allowed 18, 17 and 15 points in its three games this season. And given what we saw from the Bucs offense Monday night, it would be hard to foresee them hitting the 20-point mark here.

In Jameis Winston, we trust!

PICK: Saints (-3) to win by more than 3 points

What would a Week 4 loss mean for Cowboys?

Nick Wright, Chris Broussard, Eric Mangini, and Kevin Wildes debate what a loss for the Cowboys would mean.

Patriots at Cowboys (4:25 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

Coming off an embarrassing loss at Arizona, where the Cowboys allowed 400 yards and didn’t force a turnover, one would have to expect the Dallas defense to make life very hard for Mac Jones and the Patriots offense.

New England has struggled mightily, scoring 15 points in a win over the Jets and gaining just 288 yards against the Dolphins.

Look for the Cowboys defense to step up and keep this Patriots offense under wraps.

PICK: Patriots team total Under 17.5 points scored

Rams at Colts (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

As of this writing, there is a Colts +1 out there, so that's the number I’ll go with.

I don't like this spot at all for the Rams as they played in Cincinnati Monday, headed back West and now turn around for an early kick Sunday.

Whether it's Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew, the Colts' offense will attack against a suspect defense and the combo of immobile QB and bad OL usually doesn’t travel well.

PICK: Colts (+1) to lose be fewer than 1 point (or win outright)

Broncos QB Russell Wilson talks losing 70-20 vs. Dolphins

Craig Carton and Willie Colon decide if the challenges the Broncos are facing, including the souring relationship between quarterback and head coach Sean Payton, are something they can get over.

Survivor Plays

Tread lightly: Denver Broncos and L.A. Chargers

I don't care how bad the Bears are, I wouldn’t even think about backing the Broncos here. And yes, I'm still bitter they knocked me out of Circa survivor after blowing a 21-3 lead at home to Washington.

If you want to sit through bad coaching decisions and an agonizingly close game, then you do you and back the Chargers. You know what you’re getting yourself into before the game starts. It doesn't matter who plays QB for the Raiders. It will be a one possession game late in the fourth and you’ll just have to hope you're on the right side.

No, thank you.

Risk/Reward: Jacksonville Jaguars

My podcast co-host Geoff Schwartz made a very good case for the Jags on this week’s Bear Bets NFL Podcast. And it makes all the sense in the world. If there’s one franchise that’s used to this trip, its Jacksonville.

The Jaguars are desperate for a win, and yes that's a dangerous handicap, but I don't see what a lot of people see with Atlanta. I think the Falcons have QB issues, and it really limits what they can do offensively.

On a week with a lot of risky options, the Jags are the best of the bunch if you want to save the Chiefs and 49ers.

Top Pick: San Francisco

Normally I like saving the better teams for later in the year, but on a week when there are so many close spreads, the Niners are a free square. If others get cute and mess with some of the riskier games, you can benefit.

Plus, often later in the year, other play on/against teams emerge offering opportunities to use a team you may not be thinking about right now. So the safest option to advance is San Francisco.

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.