National Football League

2023 NFL Week 9 picks, odds: How to bet Commanders-Patriots, Rams-Packers

Updated Oct. 31, 2023 2:16 p.m. ET

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

It's already Week 9 of the NFL season, and the division races and playoff pushes are starting to take focus.

We also know who is good — and who stinks.

I'm going to wager against the teams that stink this week.

Here are three of my favorite plays early into Week 9.

Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Why are the Patriots favored over anyone in the NFL right now?

Take out the 29-25 win over the Bills, which is one of the two wins for the Patriots this season, and they've been awful. They've lost 38-3, 34-0 and 31-17.

New England keeps losing players for the season, which isn't going to help the team play any better. The Pats have two wins for a reason.

The Commanders aren't good, but they are better at nearly every position — offensive line, defensive line, skill positions on offense and defense. The concern, of course, is they don't always play to that talent and are coming off a physical 38-31 loss to the Eagles.

But the Patriots are a flailing team with no options for any explosive scoring plays, and I will gladly take the points with the Commanders.

PICK: Commanders (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

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Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

What have the Packers done to be laying three points against the Rams? Sure, Los Angeles has struggled recently, but that Steelers game was funky and the Cowboys are just better than the Rams.

Entering this weekend, Los Angeles was 13th in DVOA, boasting a top-10 offense. The Packers entered the weekend 25th in DVOA and after their lackluster performance on Sunday against Minnesota, I would expect that number to stay still or drop.

The Rams are still within striking distance of a playoff berth and need this win after dropping two straight. You can make the case Green Bay needs this also, but the Packers also needed to beat the Vikings and didn't come close (24-10).

I'll take the Rams.

PICK: Rams (+3) to lose by 3 or fewer points (or win outright)

Did Jordan Love show he is a 'backup' in 24-10 loss vs. Vikings?

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

I've been on the Cardinals' fade train for a month, and it's been profitable. Arizona has not covered for three straight weeks and needed a late touchdown, onside kick recovery and a field goal with under a minute left to cover against the Ravens on Sunday.

Cleveland is up and down on offense with PJ Walker, but the Browns can score. Their play-calling is setting up Walker for success, and the run game is still moving. Arizona's defense is not very good, and I'm not worried about Walker turning the ball over a bunch.

On the other side, I think it's reasonable to expect the Cardinals to struggle to move the ball against the Browns. Arizona's offense has not scored more than 16 points on the road, and this isn't the game where it explodes for points.

I like the Browns to cover.

PICK: Browns (-7 at time of pick) to win by more than 7 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.