National Football League

Best Super Bowl 2023 prop bets

Updated Mar. 15, 2023 2:19 p.m. ET

Jason McIntyre and 4 more

Jason McIntyre

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Warren Sharp

FOX Sports NFL Writer

Chris Fallica

FOX Sports Wagering Expert

Most people know how to make basic football bets — the point spread, moneyline (straight up) and Over/Under. But prop bets have been all the rage when it comes to the Super Bowl.

Proposition bets involve wagers on the occurrence of events during a game. Most books offer hundreds of prop bets for the Big Game that you can wager on, with the most popular ones usually being the National Anthem length, the coin toss (heads or tails) and the winning team’s Gatorade color.

And, for Sunday's Super Bowl LVII, there are lots of prop bets available at FOX Bet.

So are you ready to throw a few bucks down on some Super Bowl props? FOX Sports' betting analysts — Jason McIntyre, Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich (aka Sammy P), Chris Fallica and Warren Sharp — are here to give their best props for Sunday's showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in Arizona (on FOX and the FOX Sports app), with odds provided by FOX Bet.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday in Arizona, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Point spread: Eagles -1.5 (Eagles favored to win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise Chiefs cover)
Moneyline: Eagles -133 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.52 total); Chiefs +110 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Total scoring over/under: 50.5 points scored by both teams combined

Patrick Mahomes touted as the best quarterback in the NFL

Shannon Sharpe explains to Skip Bayless why Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL entering Super Bowl LVII.

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

This is a wager based on a hunch about the Chiefs' game plan. I played for the Chiefs in Andy Reid’s first season in Kansas City (2013). My brother (Mitchell) played for the Chiefs for five years, including their Super Bowl win. I know this team well.

When the Chiefs are facing a pass rush like the Eagles, they turn to the screen game. Philly knows this as well. The Eagles will be keyed on the Chiefs running backs and Travis Kelce as screen options.

The player they won’t be focused on is Noah Gray, the Chiefs' backup tight end. Gray is capable of busting a big gain while the Eagles pass rush is focused on Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the Eagles defense is focused on Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Also, Gray could be an option for the Chiefs in their 13 personnel packages when they have three tight ends on the field. Once again, the Eagles will key in on Kelce, leaving Gray open. I love this prop bet.

PICK: Noah Gray over 12.5 receiving yards at FOX Bet

PICK: Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl LVII MVP (+135 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $23.50 total)

Picks via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

The rising game total makes this wager even stronger.

Almost every American sportsbook is dealing the Over/Under at 51, which correlatingly made the first-half total higher, too. I saw some shops dealing 23.5 first half O/U early last week, and it was painted 24 across the board on Monday afternoon.

Now we get that precious hook.

Common first-half scores like 14-10 and 17-7 are now wins instead of pushes and the importance of an extra half point off a key number should never be underestimated in the betting market.

I love betting on games of this magnitude to start low and slow. Offenses tend to be a little rusty in the early going and nerves can certainly take center stage in the first few drives of a championship game. And while America loves its offensive fireworks, I’ve found first-half Unders to be more profitable.

Only four of the last 11 Super Bowls had more than 24 first-half points.

PICK: First half Under 24.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

When healthy, Edwards-Helaire is the most talented Chiefs running back. He’s a threat on the ground and in the passing game, and I’m bullish that Andy Reid will find a way to get him the ball a couple of times around the goal line on Super Bowl Sunday.

Obviously, it’s more likely this bet does not hit, but it’s the price for me. FOX Bet is dealing +875, while other books are as low as +500.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score a touchdown (+875: bet $10 to win $97.50 total)

With all the weapons on the field, it’s tough not to think about the potential for trickeration. It’s no secret that Chiefs head coach Andy Reid loves to dial up wacky plays, and Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni is cut from the same cloth. We know at least two players will throw a pass — Mahomes and Hurts — and I’ll take my chances with a third party joining the fun.

If this doesn’t hit, I’ll be disappointed.

Over 2.5 players to throw a pass (+130: bet $10 to win $23 total)

Picks via FOX Sports Wagering Analyst Chris Fallica:

These are two offenses that have a propensity to go for it on fourth down, and I’d expect that to continue in the Super Bowl.

Going for it on fourth has been a big part of these teams' playoff success — especially in the Eagles' case. If it's a choice between a field goal or going for it on fourth-and-short to start the game, I think the decision is an easy one for both coaches. And that's based on how these squads have played in the past and their desire to grab momentum from high-variance plays.

Also, they are likely aware there may not be a ton of possessions in this game, and scoring touchdowns will go a long way.

PICK: First score will be a touchdown

We’ve seen Patrick Mahomes try to do too much at times, forcing passes where he shouldn’t. We’ve also seen Jalen Hurts throw three interceptions over his final two regular-season games and struggle with accuracy in the postseason.

I think we’re more likely to see a pick before we see a lost fumble.

PICK: First turnover is an interception

With so much attention on the Eagles pass rush as well as Chris Jones and Frank Clark, we could find a nice price here on someone else. That someone else is Purdue rookie George Karlaftis, who can be found at +1300 to have the most sacks in the game.

The Chiefs defensive end posted a sack in seven of his last nine games dating back to the regular season and has been a big part of Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. At this price, he is definitely worth the sprinkle.

PICK: George Karlaftis most sacks (+1300)

This is a fun one. People who like this prop are likely thinking it might be Gardner Minshew or Chad Henne, who replaces an injured starter as that third player to throw a pass. But I think it will be some type of gimmick that results in the prop going Over 2.5.

How often do we see Andy Reid have someone other than Patrick Mahomes take a direct snap and potentially throw a shovel pass? I think there are a few avenues to the number here outside a third-string QB.

PICK: Total players to have pass attempt: Over 2.5 (+160)

Mahomes appears healthier, and the Chiefs potentially have Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kadarius Toney and Jerick McKinnon as options to carry the ball.

Pacheco had just 10 carries in the AFC Championship Game, and 39 of his 95 yards against Jacksonville came on one carry. This might be a game where Pacheco’s numbers are on the low side.

PICK: Isiah Pacheco Under 11.5 rush attempts and Under 49.5 rushing yards

This bet goes hand in hand with the Pacheco Under wager above. Mahomes is the best player on the field, and if he’s closer to 100%, you can bet Andy Reid is quite comfortable putting the game on his star quarterback's shoulders.

Mahomes has exceeded 40 pass attempts in five of the last eight games he has played from start to finish. And he had 30 in the Jaguars game despite being injured. What's the best way to negate some of that Eagles pass rush? Quick passes that almost double as a run play. That game plan could also allow Mahomes to take off a couple of times and see a higher-than-expected rush total.

PICK: Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 rushing yards and Over 38.5 pass attempts

For an offensive line that gets lauded as one of the best in the game and a quarterback who is seen as a runner, the Eagles sure do allow a lot of sacks — eight times this season, Hurts has been sacked at least three times, and the Saints got to Minshew six times. The Chiefs got to Joe Burrow five times in the AFC Championship Game and can bring pressure from a variety of players.

I anticipate the Eagles needing to throw in this game which will equate to at least three sacks.

PICK: Kansas City Over 2.5 sacks

Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes: who has more to gain from Super Bowl LVII?

Emmanuel Acho, LeSean McCoy, Joy Taylor, and David Helman discuss whether Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts has more to gain from Super Bowl LVII.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

This game features two innovative coaches who like to get creative in the red zone. Both of these teams are bursting with depth and talent at running back, including speed on the outside. Look for a lot of different ball carriers before this game wraps up.

PICK: Over 4.5 ball carriers in the game

Picks via FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

One of my favorite prop angles revolves around the Eagles defense in the red zone, and how they struggle against tight ends and can be run on close to the end zone. So a couple props in line with that thinking: Travis Kelce anytime TD -115 and K.C. over 0.5 rushing touchdowns -140.

PICKS: Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (-115) and Chiefs Over 0.5 rushing TDs (-140)

Are you ready to get in on the Super Bowl LVII prop action? Head over to FOX Bet now!

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