National Football League

2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

Updated Aug. 29, 2023 6:15 p.m. ET

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September's presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it's time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers eclipse their win total of 6.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Buccaneers' season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz: Buccaneers Under 6.5 wins

Have you seen the quarterbacks the Bucs plan to roll out this season? Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask are the two primary options for Tampa Bay. Mayfield is 8-15 in his last 25 starts, dating back to the start of the 2021 season. He has not thrown for over 250 yards since November 2021 and has generally been a turnover machine, having nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns during that time.

The Bucs' offensive line is going through some shuffling, plus they couldn’t run the ball very well last season. They have a backward way of thinking about their offensive design, and having bad quarterbacks isn’t going to help. If the defense can stay healthy, they can be good, but that’s not enough to carry the team to seven wins.

There’s also the question of the motivation to win for the Bucs. They need a franchise quarterback, and the 2024 NFL Draft is full of them. Landing a stud like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye would secure the future of their franchise. That’s more important than winning a few extra games this season.

Pick via FOX Sports NFC South Reporter Greg Auman: Buccaneers Over 6.5 wins

This will be a substantially younger team, and not just from Tom Brady’s retirement. It’s a make-or-break year for Baker Mayfield trying to prove he’s still an NFL starter, and the defense might hinge on whether three recent high draft picks — Calijah Kancey, Logan Hall and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka — can step up and create pressure. They might have a dozen rookies on their 53-man roster, which makes them unpredictable, even by 2023 NFC South standards.

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

6-6-1 (Over-Under-Push) since 2010
Have won at least seven games in each of the last four seasons

2022 In Review

Overall: 8-9, first in NFC South
Home record: 5-4
Road record: 3-5
Divisional record: 4-2
Point differential: -45 (25th in NFL)
Points per game: 18.4 (25th in NFL)
Yards per game: 346.7 (15th in NFL)
Opponent points per game: 21.1 (T-13th in NFL)
Opponent yards per game: 324.3 (T-ninth in NFL)

Will Lions or Packers snag the NFC North title?

Nick Wright and Chris Broussard reveal their NFC North predictions, including why the Detroit Lions will battle the Green Bay Packers for the reigns.

What to Know

Head Coach: Todd Bowles, second season (8-9 with Buccaneers)
2023 Strength of Schedule: .483 (11th-easiest in NFL)

Key Additions

DT Calijah Kancey (first-round pick, 19th overall from Pittsburgh)
RB Chase Edmonds (Denver Broncos)
QB Baker Mayfield (Los Angeles Rams)
DL Greg Gaines (Los Angeles Rams)

Key Subtractions

QB Tom Brady
WR Julio Jones
DT Akiem Hicks
LT Donovan Smith (Kansas City Chiefs)
S Mike Edwards (Kansas City Chiefs)
OG Shaq Mason (Houston Texans)
S Keanu Neal (Pittsburgh Steelers)
WR Breshad Perriman (Indianapolis Colts)
CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (Tennessee Titans)

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

2022: 8
2021: 13
2020: 11
2019: 7
2018: 5

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.